Gurus O'Gold

The Gurus Predict Oscar Night 020420

Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 1917
1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 21
2 3 Parasite
2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 9 10
5 Joker
0 0
9 Ford v Ferrari
0 0
4 The Irishman
0 0
6 Little Women
0 0
7 Marriage Story
0 0
One Vote Wonders
6 Jojo Rabbit
2 1 1
2 Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Sam Mendes
1917
1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 21
2 2 Bong Joon-ho
Parasite
2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 11 12
Todd Phillips
Joker
0 0
3 Quentin Tarantino
Once Upon A Time ...
0 0
Martin Scorsese
The Irishman
0 0
Rank Last Chart Best Actress AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Renee Zellweger
Judy
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Scarlett Johansson
Marriage Story
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7
3 3 Charlize Theron
Bombshell
2 2 2 3 3
Saoirse Ronan
Little Women
0 0
One Vote Wonders
4 Cynthia Erivo
Harriet
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Joaquin Phoenix
Joker
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Adam Driver
Marriage Story
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 8 8
3 3 Antonio Banderas
Pain and Glory
2 2 2 2
4 Leonardo DiCaprio
Once Upon A Time...
0 0
One Vote Wonders
5 Jonathan Pryce
Two Popes
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actress AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Laura Dern
Marriage Story
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Scarlett Johansson
JoJo Rabbit
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10 10
5 Kathy Bates
Richard Jewell
0 0
4 Margot Robbie
Bombshell
0 0
One Vote Wonders
3 3 Florence Pugh
Little Women
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Brad Pitt
Once Upon a Time...
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Joe Pesci
The Irishman
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 8 8
One Vote Wonders
4 Anthony Hopkins
The Two Popes
2 1 1
3-t 5 Tom Hanks
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
2 1 1
3-t 3 Al Pacino
The Irishman
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Original Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 2 Parasite
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 11 21
2 1 Once Upon A Time ...
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 11 12
3 Marriage Story
0 0
4 1917
0 0
0 Knives Out
0 0
Rank Last Chart Adapted Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 3 Jojo Rabbit
1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 11 19
2 1 Little Women
2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 10 13
t-4 The Two Popes
0 0
t-4 Joker
0 0
One Vote Wonders
3 2 The Irishman
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Animated Short AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Hair Love
1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 10 19
2 Kitbull
2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 8 10
Sister
2 2 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Dcera
2 1 1
Memorable
2 1 1


Rank Last Chart Live-Action Short AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 The Neighbors’ Window
1 2 2 2 1 1 1 7 11
2 Brotherhood
1 1 2 1 2 5 8
Saria
2 1 2 3 4
A Sister
1 2 2 3 4
Nefta Football Club
2 1 2 3

Rank Last Chart Documentary Short AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 10 18
2 In the Absence
2 2 2 2 1 2 1 7 9
One Vote Wonders
Life Overtakes Me
2 1 1
St. Louis Superman
2 1 1
Walk Run Cha-Cha
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Documentary Feature AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 American Factory
1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 11 20
2 3 For Sama
2 2 1 2 2 1 6 8
2 Honeyland
2 2 2 2 4 4
t-4 The Edge Of Democracy
0 0
One Vote Wonders
t-4 The Cave
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Foreign Language AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Parasite
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Pain & Glory
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 11 11
4 Honeyland
0 0
Corpus Christi
0 0
5 Les Misérables
0 0


Rank Last Chart Best Animated AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Toy Story 4
2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 10 17
2 4 I Lost My Body
1 2 1 2 2 2 6 8
2 Klaus
1 2 2 1 2 5 7
0 How To Train Your Dragon
0 0
One Vote Wonders
3 Missing Link
2 1 1

Rank Last Chart Best Editing AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 2 Ford v Ferrari
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 11 19
2 1 Parasite
1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 8 12
3 The Irishman
2 2 2 2
5 Joker
0 0
One Vote Wonders
4 Jojo Rabbit
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Cinematography AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 1917
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Once Upon a Time ...
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7
3 Joker
2 2 2 3 3
5 The Irishman
0 0
4 The Lighthouse
0 0
Rank Last Chart Best Production Design AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
t-1 2 1917
2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 9 11
t-1 1 Once Upon a Time …
1 1 1 1 1 2 6 11
4 Jojo Rabbit
1 2 1 3 5
3 Parasite
2 1 2 3
5 The Irishman
0 0
Rank Last Chart Best Costume AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Little Women
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 11 20
2 3 Jojo Rabbit
1 2 2 2 2 2 6 7
2 Once Upon a Time ...
2 2 2 2 1 5 6
t-4 The Irishman
0 0
t-4 Joker
0 0

Rank Last Chart Best Hair AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Bombshell
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 21
2 3 Judy
2 2 2 2 1 5 6
2 Joker
2 2 2 2 4 4
4 1917
1 2 2 3 4
Maleficent
0 0

Rank Last Chart Best Visual FX AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 2 1917
1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 11 21
2 1 Avengers: Endgame
2 2 2 1 2 2 2 7 8
3 The Lion King
2 2 2 3 3
Star Wars
0 0
One Vote Wonders
4 The Irishman
2 1 1

Rank Last Chart Best Score AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Joker
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 1917
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10 10
Marriage Story
0 0
Star Wars
0 0
One Vote Wonders
3 Little Women
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Song AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Rocketman
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 3 Harriet
2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6
2 Frozen 2
2 2 2 2 2 5 5
t-4 Breakthrough
0 0
One Vote Wonders
t-4 Toy Story 4
1 1 2
Rank Last Chart Best Sound Editing AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 t-1 1917
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 11 18
2 t-1 Ford v Ferrari
2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 11 15
5 Joker
0 0
3 Once Upon a Time …
0 0
4 Star Wars
0 0
Rank Last Chart Best Sound Mixing AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 t-1 1917
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 11 19
2 t-1 Ford v Ferrari
2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 11 14
Ad Astra
0 0
4 Joker
0 0
3 Once Upon a Time …
0 0

The Gurus, At Your Service
Thelma AdamsAuthor, Critic, Oscar Expert Twitter
Robyn BahrFreelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian) Twitter
Gregory EllwoodThe Playlist Twitter
Peter HowellToronto Star Twitter
Mark JohnsonAwards Circuit
Dave KargerTCM, IMDb
Wilson MoralesBlackFilm.com
Michael PattersonMichael’s Telluride Film BlogTwitter
David Poland Twitter
Steve PondThe Wrap
NathanielRThe Film Experience Twitter
Sasha StoneAwards Daily Twitter
Jeff SneiderCollider Twitter

4 Responses to “The Gurus Predict Oscar Night 020420”

  1. Eric M. Van says:

    Early props to Gregory Ellwood, the only person who gets that Parasite is actually the Best Picture favorite if you look at all the relevant data and history.

  2. Bradley Laing says:

    A korean film just won the Oscar!

  3. Bradley Laing says:

    —Note: i am on Eastern time, where is it 11:31 pm.

  4. Eric M. Van says:

    Elsewhere online, I labelled Parasite the favorite even before it won the SAG. After it won, I upped its odds to 2-3. And I had 1917 at 9-1 the whole time; I would have had Parasite at 1-9 if it weren’t for Once Upon a Time as a potential contender, and Birdman beating Boyhood, i.e., Oscar’s notorious love for movies about actors.

    Trivia question: what’s the only known film that was named the best film of the year by a higher percentage of critics, and also has a higher user rating at IMDB? Easier trivia question with the same answer: what was the first fantasy or science fiction film to win the Oscar for Best Picture?

    Trivia question I expect never to know the answer to: how many movies have increased either their domestic box office rank or gross for nine consecutive weeks, beginning in their 8th week of release (or later)? Parasite did that, and in that time period its rank in the IMDB top 250 actually went up from 27 to 26.

MCN Commentary & Analysis See All

The Year Of Festivaling Dangerously

David Poland | August 3, 2020

Movie Content Scoreboard, as of July 2020

David Poland | July 23, 2020

Why Write?

David Poland | July 14, 2020

The News Curated by Ray Pride See All

Criterion Boxes the Essential Fellini

August 11, 2020

Variety

China Approves Mulan Theatrical Release: Disney Says "When the magnolia blossom opens, it lives up to its reputation and arrives as promised. Import is confirmed and it will soon burst into bloom in theaters; looking forward to meeting you!”

Variety | August 11, 2020

Vulture

James Mangold on Copland: "It’s what’s going on in our country in general, which is that as you deny resources and opportunities to people, they end up pitted against each other for what little remains. At that time, in the ‘70s and ‘80s, it seemed like it was only getting worse. My movie was about a community of cops and the point of view that emanated from it. My own point of view is more sympathetic toward the communities of color that are besieged. But, in the context of what we’re talking about, it seems to me that we’re never going to unlock the white pathology that participates in this cycle if we don’t unpack what’s underneath this anger. I don’t mean to excuse it but to understand how people end up way out there in a cultish anger, where a uniform and a badge unites them with other like souls, and they start to develop a mercenary and deeply cynical attitude about the people they’re actually there to protect."

Vulture | August 10, 2020

Twitter

"Amid massive layoffs at Warner Bros, I'm getting word of an absolute bloodbath at DC Comics. Bob Harras is apparently gone; so are editors Mark Doyle, Brian Cunningham and Andy Khouri. Jim Lee still with the company, but no longer publisher. DC Collectibles gone entirely."

Matt Bors: "If there's any point to being owned by a $33 billion company, you'd think it would be that the publishing arm creating IP would actually be underwritten and not demolished."

"These are just the names I’ve heard multiple times. Many other longterm – I’m talking VERY longterm – DC employees have also been let go.Those who had large titles and big salaries are gone. This is a huge and significant downsizing of DC’s publishing operations that will have huge ripple effects across the entire scarred comics industry landscape. It’s impossible to see this as anything but a huge sign of disinterest in the comics publishing business by AT&T, WarnerMedia and the Global Brands division. While other WB divisions faced severe layoffs, losing such a huge swath of the executive leadership at DC is a lot more than just more layoffs."

Twitter | August 10, 2020

The Video Section See All

May Calamawy, Ramy

David Poland | June 15, 2020

The Podcast Section See All