Gurus O'Gold

The Gurus Predict Oscar Night 020420

Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 1917
1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 21
2 3 Parasite
2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 9 10
5 Joker
0 0
9 Ford v Ferrari
0 0
4 The Irishman
0 0
6 Little Women
0 0
7 Marriage Story
0 0
One Vote Wonders
6 Jojo Rabbit
2 1 1
2 Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Sam Mendes
1917
1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 21
2 2 Bong Joon-ho
Parasite
2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 11 12
Todd Phillips
Joker
0 0
3 Quentin Tarantino
Once Upon A Time ...
0 0
Martin Scorsese
The Irishman
0 0
Rank Last Chart Best Actress AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Renee Zellweger
Judy
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Scarlett Johansson
Marriage Story
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7
3 3 Charlize Theron
Bombshell
2 2 2 3 3
Saoirse Ronan
Little Women
0 0
One Vote Wonders
4 Cynthia Erivo
Harriet
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Joaquin Phoenix
Joker
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Adam Driver
Marriage Story
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 8 8
3 3 Antonio Banderas
Pain and Glory
2 2 2 2
4 Leonardo DiCaprio
Once Upon A Time...
0 0
One Vote Wonders
5 Jonathan Pryce
Two Popes
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actress AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Laura Dern
Marriage Story
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Scarlett Johansson
JoJo Rabbit
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10 10
5 Kathy Bates
Richard Jewell
0 0
4 Margot Robbie
Bombshell
0 0
One Vote Wonders
3 3 Florence Pugh
Little Women
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Brad Pitt
Once Upon a Time...
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Joe Pesci
The Irishman
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 8 8
One Vote Wonders
4 Anthony Hopkins
The Two Popes
2 1 1
3-t 5 Tom Hanks
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
2 1 1
3-t 3 Al Pacino
The Irishman
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Original Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 2 Parasite
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 11 21
2 1 Once Upon A Time ...
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 11 12
3 Marriage Story
0 0
4 1917
0 0
0 Knives Out
0 0
Rank Last Chart Adapted Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 3 Jojo Rabbit
1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 11 19
2 1 Little Women
2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 10 13
t-4 The Two Popes
0 0
t-4 Joker
0 0
One Vote Wonders
3 2 The Irishman
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Animated Short AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Hair Love
1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 10 19
2 Kitbull
2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 8 10
Sister
2 2 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Dcera
2 1 1
Memorable
2 1 1


Rank Last Chart Live-Action Short AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 The Neighbors’ Window
1 2 2 2 1 1 1 7 11
2 Brotherhood
1 1 2 1 2 5 8
Saria
2 1 2 3 4
A Sister
1 2 2 3 4
Nefta Football Club
2 1 2 3

Rank Last Chart Documentary Short AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 10 18
2 In the Absence
2 2 2 2 1 2 1 7 9
One Vote Wonders
Life Overtakes Me
2 1 1
St. Louis Superman
2 1 1
Walk Run Cha-Cha
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Documentary Feature AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 American Factory
1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 11 20
2 3 For Sama
2 2 1 2 2 1 6 8
2 Honeyland
2 2 2 2 4 4
t-4 The Edge Of Democracy
0 0
One Vote Wonders
t-4 The Cave
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Foreign Language AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Parasite
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Pain & Glory
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 11 11
4 Honeyland
0 0
Corpus Christi
0 0
5 Les Misérables
0 0


Rank Last Chart Best Animated AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Toy Story 4
2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 10 17
2 4 I Lost My Body
1 2 1 2 2 2 6 8
2 Klaus
1 2 2 1 2 5 7
0 How To Train Your Dragon
0 0
One Vote Wonders
3 Missing Link
2 1 1

Rank Last Chart Best Editing AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 2 Ford v Ferrari
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 11 19
2 1 Parasite
1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 8 12
3 The Irishman
2 2 2 2
5 Joker
0 0
One Vote Wonders
4 Jojo Rabbit
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Cinematography AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 1917
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Once Upon a Time ...
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7
3 Joker
2 2 2 3 3
5 The Irishman
0 0
4 The Lighthouse
0 0
Rank Last Chart Best Production Design AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
t-1 2 1917
2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 9 11
t-1 1 Once Upon a Time …
1 1 1 1 1 2 6 11
4 Jojo Rabbit
1 2 1 3 5
3 Parasite
2 1 2 3
5 The Irishman
0 0
Rank Last Chart Best Costume AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Little Women
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 11 20
2 3 Jojo Rabbit
1 2 2 2 2 2 6 7
2 Once Upon a Time ...
2 2 2 2 1 5 6
t-4 The Irishman
0 0
t-4 Joker
0 0

Rank Last Chart Best Hair AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Bombshell
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 21
2 3 Judy
2 2 2 2 1 5 6
2 Joker
2 2 2 2 4 4
4 1917
1 2 2 3 4
Maleficent
0 0

Rank Last Chart Best Visual FX AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 2 1917
1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 11 21
2 1 Avengers: Endgame
2 2 2 1 2 2 2 7 8
3 The Lion King
2 2 2 3 3
Star Wars
0 0
One Vote Wonders
4 The Irishman
2 1 1

Rank Last Chart Best Score AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Joker
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 1917
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10 10
Marriage Story
0 0
Star Wars
0 0
One Vote Wonders
3 Little Women
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Song AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Rocketman
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 3 Harriet
2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6
2 Frozen 2
2 2 2 2 2 5 5
t-4 Breakthrough
0 0
One Vote Wonders
t-4 Toy Story 4
1 1 2
Rank Last Chart Best Sound Editing AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 t-1 1917
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 11 18
2 t-1 Ford v Ferrari
2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 11 15
5 Joker
0 0
3 Once Upon a Time …
0 0
4 Star Wars
0 0
Rank Last Chart Best Sound Mixing AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 t-1 1917
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 11 19
2 t-1 Ford v Ferrari
2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 11 14
Ad Astra
0 0
4 Joker
0 0
3 Once Upon a Time …
0 0

The Gurus, At Your Service
Thelma AdamsAuthor, Critic, Oscar Expert Twitter
Robyn BahrFreelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian) Twitter
Gregory EllwoodThe Playlist Twitter
Peter HowellToronto Star Twitter
Mark JohnsonAwards Circuit
Dave KargerTCM, IMDb
Wilson MoralesBlackFilm.com
Michael PattersonMichael’s Telluride Film BlogTwitter
David Poland Twitter
Steve PondThe Wrap
NathanielRThe Film Experience Twitter
Sasha StoneAwards Daily Twitter
Jeff SneiderCollider Twitter

4 Responses to “The Gurus Predict Oscar Night 020420”

  1. Eric M. Van says:

    Early props to Gregory Ellwood, the only person who gets that Parasite is actually the Best Picture favorite if you look at all the relevant data and history.

  2. Bradley Laing says:

    A korean film just won the Oscar!

  3. Bradley Laing says:

    —Note: i am on Eastern time, where is it 11:31 pm.

  4. Eric M. Van says:

    Elsewhere online, I labelled Parasite the favorite even before it won the SAG. After it won, I upped its odds to 2-3. And I had 1917 at 9-1 the whole time; I would have had Parasite at 1-9 if it weren’t for Once Upon a Time as a potential contender, and Birdman beating Boyhood, i.e., Oscar’s notorious love for movies about actors.

    Trivia question: what’s the only known film that was named the best film of the year by a higher percentage of critics, and also has a higher user rating at IMDB? Easier trivia question with the same answer: what was the first fantasy or science fiction film to win the Oscar for Best Picture?

    Trivia question I expect never to know the answer to: how many movies have increased either their domestic box office rank or gross for nine consecutive weeks, beginning in their 8th week of release (or later)? Parasite did that, and in that time period its rank in the IMDB top 250 actually went up from 27 to 26.

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The Guardian

"Will it matter in No Time to Die that the state-of-the-art Bond gadgetry is last year’s model? Have In the Heights and West Side Story missed the post-"Hamilton" wave they might have been hoping to catch? Will it be weird seeing a 16-year-old Finn Wolfhard in Ghostbusters: Afterlife when he’s pushing 19 in real life? In the broader sense, will any of these delayed movies feel truly fresh?"

The Guardian | April 12, 2021

"Even former assistants who survived their tenure with Rudin and became executives themselves described the tough skin they developed as an asset. Emotional and mental anguish—reportedly at minimum wage—were a given. “You’d always forgive him because he’s so smart, cares so much, and he gets movies made that no one else can,” explained Amy Pascal, one of Rudin’s former assistants who became a major studio executive herself, in 2008. “I attribute an enormous amount of whatever success I’ve been able to attain directly because of how I saw him operate,” the producer Craig Perry, another Rudin acolyte, said in 2005. “Does he yell? Sure. Do I yell? Sure.” Rudin’s workplace behavior may have been an open secret, but open secrets eventually build cultures—in this case, one where tolerating mistreatment is a fundamental ingredient for success. And that culture was reflected in the press: Many stories about Rudin casually downplayed or reframed his nastiness. Tempestuousness was excused as 'behind-the-scenes excesses of passion.'"

April 12, 2021

What A Brit Misses
—Discovering that you and your viewing partner had wildly different views about the merits of a film and knowing that a treat of discussing is about to unfold over several drinks.
—Discovering during the film that you and your viewing partner have equally eye-rolling disdain for something and anticipating picking over the cadaver afterwards.
—Discovering you and your viewing partner both loved what you watched and sitting in awe and ‘aw shucks’ at some of the best moments.
—Holding a new beloved’s hand to the point of discomfort.
—The drowning feeling of being sucked under into sleep in NFT1.
—Being absolutely slathered in a film, emerging alone into the night, carrying its mood with you.
—Blinking back into the light during a daytime show, realising how little time you’ve been away in actual hours.
—The magnetic connection between audiences that can cry and laugh together.

April 11, 2021

BAFTAs: Nomadland, Zhao, McDormand, Hopkins; Soul; Screenplays, Promising Young Woman, The Father; Editing, Sound of Metal; Cinematography, Nomadland; Another Round, Not In English; Youn Yuh-jung, Daniel Kaluuya; My Octopus Teacher; Score, Soul

April 11, 2021

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