Gurus O'Gold

The Gurus Predict Oscar Night 020420

Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 1917
1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 21
2 3 Parasite
2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 9 10
5 Joker
0 0
9 Ford v Ferrari
0 0
4 The Irishman
0 0
6 Little Women
0 0
7 Marriage Story
0 0
One Vote Wonders
6 Jojo Rabbit
2 1 1
2 Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Sam Mendes
1917
1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 21
2 2 Bong Joon-ho
Parasite
2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 11 12
Todd Phillips
Joker
0 0
3 Quentin Tarantino
Once Upon A Time ...
0 0
Martin Scorsese
The Irishman
0 0
Rank Last Chart Best Actress AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Renee Zellweger
Judy
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Scarlett Johansson
Marriage Story
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7
3 3 Charlize Theron
Bombshell
2 2 2 3 3
Saoirse Ronan
Little Women
0 0
One Vote Wonders
4 Cynthia Erivo
Harriet
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Joaquin Phoenix
Joker
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Adam Driver
Marriage Story
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 8 8
3 3 Antonio Banderas
Pain and Glory
2 2 2 2
4 Leonardo DiCaprio
Once Upon A Time...
0 0
One Vote Wonders
5 Jonathan Pryce
Two Popes
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actress AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Laura Dern
Marriage Story
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Scarlett Johansson
JoJo Rabbit
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10 10
5 Kathy Bates
Richard Jewell
0 0
4 Margot Robbie
Bombshell
0 0
One Vote Wonders
3 3 Florence Pugh
Little Women
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Supporting Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Brad Pitt
Once Upon a Time...
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Joe Pesci
The Irishman
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 8 8
One Vote Wonders
4 Anthony Hopkins
The Two Popes
2 1 1
3-t 5 Tom Hanks
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
2 1 1
3-t 3 Al Pacino
The Irishman
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Original Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 2 Parasite
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 11 21
2 1 Once Upon A Time ...
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 11 12
3 Marriage Story
0 0
4 1917
0 0
0 Knives Out
0 0
Rank Last Chart Adapted Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 3 Jojo Rabbit
1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 11 19
2 1 Little Women
2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 10 13
t-4 The Two Popes
0 0
t-4 Joker
0 0
One Vote Wonders
3 2 The Irishman
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Animated Short AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Hair Love
1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 10 19
2 Kitbull
2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 8 10
Sister
2 2 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Dcera
2 1 1
Memorable
2 1 1


Rank Last Chart Live-Action Short AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 The Neighbors’ Window
1 2 2 2 1 1 1 7 11
2 Brotherhood
1 1 2 1 2 5 8
Saria
2 1 2 3 4
A Sister
1 2 2 3 4
Nefta Football Club
2 1 2 3

Rank Last Chart Documentary Short AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 10 18
2 In the Absence
2 2 2 2 1 2 1 7 9
One Vote Wonders
Life Overtakes Me
2 1 1
St. Louis Superman
2 1 1
Walk Run Cha-Cha
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Documentary Feature AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 American Factory
1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 11 20
2 3 For Sama
2 2 1 2 2 1 6 8
2 Honeyland
2 2 2 2 4 4
t-4 The Edge Of Democracy
0 0
One Vote Wonders
t-4 The Cave
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Foreign Language AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Parasite
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Pain & Glory
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 11 11
4 Honeyland
0 0
Corpus Christi
0 0
5 Les Misérables
0 0


Rank Last Chart Best Animated AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Toy Story 4
2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 10 17
2 4 I Lost My Body
1 2 1 2 2 2 6 8
2 Klaus
1 2 2 1 2 5 7
0 How To Train Your Dragon
0 0
One Vote Wonders
3 Missing Link
2 1 1

Rank Last Chart Best Editing AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 2 Ford v Ferrari
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 11 19
2 1 Parasite
1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 8 12
3 The Irishman
2 2 2 2
5 Joker
0 0
One Vote Wonders
4 Jojo Rabbit
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Cinematography AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 1917
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 Once Upon a Time ...
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7
3 Joker
2 2 2 3 3
5 The Irishman
0 0
4 The Lighthouse
0 0
Rank Last Chart Best Production Design AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
t-1 2 1917
2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 9 11
t-1 1 Once Upon a Time …
1 1 1 1 1 2 6 11
4 Jojo Rabbit
1 2 1 3 5
3 Parasite
2 1 2 3
5 The Irishman
0 0
Rank Last Chart Best Costume AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Little Women
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 11 20
2 3 Jojo Rabbit
1 2 2 2 2 2 6 7
2 Once Upon a Time ...
2 2 2 2 1 5 6
t-4 The Irishman
0 0
t-4 Joker
0 0

Rank Last Chart Best Hair AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Bombshell
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 21
2 3 Judy
2 2 2 2 1 5 6
2 Joker
2 2 2 2 4 4
4 1917
1 2 2 3 4
Maleficent
0 0

Rank Last Chart Best Visual FX AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 2 1917
1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 11 21
2 1 Avengers: Endgame
2 2 2 1 2 2 2 7 8
3 The Lion King
2 2 2 3 3
Star Wars
0 0
One Vote Wonders
4 The Irishman
2 1 1

Rank Last Chart Best Score AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Joker
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 2 1917
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10 10
Marriage Story
0 0
Star Wars
0 0
One Vote Wonders
3 Little Women
2 1 1
Rank Last Chart Best Song AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Rocketman
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 3 Harriet
2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6
2 Frozen 2
2 2 2 2 2 5 5
t-4 Breakthrough
0 0
One Vote Wonders
t-4 Toy Story 4
1 1 2
Rank Last Chart Best Sound Editing AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 t-1 1917
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 11 18
2 t-1 Ford v Ferrari
2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 11 15
5 Joker
0 0
3 Once Upon a Time …
0 0
4 Star Wars
0 0
Rank Last Chart Best Sound Mixing AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 t-1 1917
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 11 19
2 t-1 Ford v Ferrari
2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 11 14
Ad Astra
0 0
4 Joker
0 0
3 Once Upon a Time …
0 0

The Gurus, At Your Service
Thelma AdamsAuthor, Critic, Oscar Expert Twitter
Robyn BahrFreelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian) Twitter
Gregory EllwoodThe Playlist Twitter
Peter HowellToronto Star Twitter
Mark JohnsonAwards Circuit
Dave KargerTCM, IMDb
Wilson MoralesBlackFilm.com
Michael PattersonMichael’s Telluride Film BlogTwitter
David Poland Twitter
Steve PondThe Wrap
NathanielRThe Film Experience Twitter
Sasha StoneAwards Daily Twitter
Jeff SneiderCollider Twitter

4 Responses to “The Gurus Predict Oscar Night 020420”

  1. Eric M. Van says:

    Early props to Gregory Ellwood, the only person who gets that Parasite is actually the Best Picture favorite if you look at all the relevant data and history.

  2. Bradley Laing says:

    A korean film just won the Oscar!

  3. Bradley Laing says:

    —Note: i am on Eastern time, where is it 11:31 pm.

  4. Eric M. Van says:

    Elsewhere online, I labelled Parasite the favorite even before it won the SAG. After it won, I upped its odds to 2-3. And I had 1917 at 9-1 the whole time; I would have had Parasite at 1-9 if it weren’t for Once Upon a Time as a potential contender, and Birdman beating Boyhood, i.e., Oscar’s notorious love for movies about actors.

    Trivia question: what’s the only known film that was named the best film of the year by a higher percentage of critics, and also has a higher user rating at IMDB? Easier trivia question with the same answer: what was the first fantasy or science fiction film to win the Oscar for Best Picture?

    Trivia question I expect never to know the answer to: how many movies have increased either their domestic box office rank or gross for nine consecutive weeks, beginning in their 8th week of release (or later)? Parasite did that, and in that time period its rank in the IMDB top 250 actually went up from 27 to 26.

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Variety

"With Toronto, Telluride, Ven­ice, New York and other key fests opening amid an overcrowded field that includes films postponed from 2020, the acclaim, buzz and dis­tinction festivals bestow on award contenders is more important than ever — especially for spec­tacles such as Dune, which lose impact on the small screen in hybrid streaming/theatrical releases. Yet the surging Delta variant now threatens to derail premieres, star appearances, in-person screenings and the press, the public’s and Oscar vot­ers’ willingness to attend them.

"On August 27, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sci­ences postponed all screenings and in-person events for 2021. And on August 30, despite the U.S. having around 60 times as many COVID-19 cases as Canada and a much lower vaccination rate over the previous four weeks, per Johns Hopkins University data, the U.S. State Dept. advised Americans to “reconsider travel to Canada due to [a high level of] COVID-19” there.

“There’s nothing conclu­sive right now, and everyone is not quite sure how to proceed because of the nature of the COVID pandemic,” says Sony Pic­tures Classics co-president Tom Bernard. “Telluride and Toronto have changed what they are going to do dramatically in the last few weeks, putting in a lot more proto­cols. The New York Film Festival is to be determined—what are they and AFI Fest going to do? Running a festival is like trying to [control] an oil tanker. You can’t just stop it, [and most events] don’t have festival insurance where you can say, ‘COVID shut us down, we gotta get paid.’ It brings up a lot of questions that are really difficult to answer.”

"It wasn’t supposed to be this way..."

Variety | September 9, 2021

Twitter

“A coalition of some of the nation’s most powerful labor unions is pressuring the Federal Trade Commission to put the brakes on Amazon’s $8.45 billion gambit to buy MGM as the agency decides whether to approve the would-be takeover.”

Twitter | August 11, 2021

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Ethan Coen Quits?

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LA Times

Crisis Consultant Tells HFPA: “Consider what will happen if you do not pass the bylaws… Some of you may wish for an alternate future but the reality is totally different. As journalists, you understand what the headline will be if you do not pass these bylaws.”

LA Times | July 26, 2021

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