Gurus O'Gold

Gurus o’ Gold Pull Into the Station

The Gurus certify a lock or two in the last days before Oscar, especially in Supporting: our bakers’ dozen brain trust see Yuh-Jung Youn and Daniel Kaluuya as ready wins. Chadwick Boseman is expected as a posthumous win, while Best Actress shows movement in the first three slots, with the Gurus narrowly expecting Viola Davis, and then a neck-and-neck guesstimation on Carey Mulligan and Frances McDormand. The biggest mover is My Octopus Teacher, wrapping its kindly long arms around all comers.

Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Nomadland
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 103
2 2 The Trial of the Chicago 7
1 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 7 2 13 85
3 3 Minari
3 3 2 4 4 2 3 4 4 6 3 2 5 13 72
4 4 Promising Young Woman
5 4 5 3 3 5 5 3 5 3 6 5 3 13 62
5 5 Judas and the Black Messiah
7 5 7 7 5 4 4 5 3 4 4 4 7 13 51
6 8 The Father
6 8 4 5 7 7 7 8 8 8 5 3 8 13 33
7 7 Mank
4 7 8 8 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 6 13 31
7 6 Sound of Metal
8 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 6 5 8 6 4 13 31

Rank Last Chart Best Actress AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 3 Viola Davis
2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 2 3 2 13 53
2 1 Carey Mulligan
1 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 4 2 3 13 47
3 2 Frances McDormand
4 1 2 2 4 2 4 4 1 3 1 1 4 13 45
4 4 Andra Day
3 5 4 4 2 4 3 3 5 2 3 4 1 13 35
5 5 Vanessa Kirby
5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 13 15

Rank Last Chart Best Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Chadwick Boseman
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 3 Anthony Hopkins
2 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 13 49
3 2 Riz Ahmed
3 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 13 42
4 4 Steven Yeun
4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 13 24
5 5 Gary Oldman
5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 13 15

Rank Last Chart Supporting Actress AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Yuh-Jung Youn
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 4 Glenn Close
3 2 4 4 2 5 2 3 2 4 2 4 2 13 39
3 2 Maria Bakalova
4 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 5 2 3 2 5 13 38
4 3 Olivia Colman
2 4 2 3 4 2 4 4 3 3 5 3 3 13 36
5 5 Amanda Seyfried
5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 13 17

Rank Last Chart Supporting Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Daniel Kaluuya
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Sacha Baron Cohen
2 3 5 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 13 42
3 4 Paul Raci
4 4 2 3 3 4 3 4 2 2 2 2 5 13 38
4 3 Leslie Odom, Jr.
3 2 3 4 4 3 4 3 5 4 4 4 3 13 32
5 5 Lakeith Stanfield
5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 2 13 18

Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Nomadland
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 4 Mank
2 4 2 4 4 4 2 3 3 4 2 4 2 13 38
3 2 Promising Young Woman
5 3 3 2 2 3 4 2 4 2 5 2 3 13 38
4 3 Minari
4 2 4 3 3 2 3 4 5 5 3 3 4 13 33
5 5 Another Round
3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 3 4 5 5 13 21

Rank Last Chart Documentary Feature AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 4 My Octopus Teacher
1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 64
2 1 Time
4 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 3 2 5 13 43
3 2 Crip Camp
3 1 4 4 3 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 2 13 40
4 3 Collective
2 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 3 4 4 3 13 34
5 5 The Mole Agent
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 13 14

Rank Last Chart International Feature AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Another Round
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Quo Vadis, Aida?
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 5 13 48
3 3 Collective
4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 4 3 3 3 13 35
4 4 The Man Who Sold His Skin
3 4 4 5 3 5 3 4 5 3 4 4 4 13 27
5 5 Better Days
5 5 5 4 5 3 5 5 4 5 5 5 2 13 20

Rank Last Chart Original Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Promising Young Woman
1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 13 63
2 2 The Trial of the Chicago 7
2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 13 54
3 3 Minari
3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 5 3 5 4 13 33
4 4 Judas and the Black Messiah
5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 5 3 4 3 5 13 23
5 5 Sound of Metal
4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 3 13 22

Rank Last Chart Adapted Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Nomadland
1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 13 61
2 2 The Father
2 3 1 2 2 2 1 2 4 2 1 2 2 13 52
3 3 One Night In Miami...
5 2 3 4 3 3 4 4 1 3 3 5 4 13 34
4 4 Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
3 4 4 3 4 5 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 13 32
5 5 The White Tiger
4 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 13 16

Rank Last Chart Best Cinematography AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Nomadland
2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 13 61
2 2 Mank
1 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 13 55
3 4 Judas and the Black Messiah
3 5 3 3 5 4 2 5 4 5 4 3 3 13 29
4 3 News of the World
4 4 4 5 3 5 4 3 3 4 3 4 5 13 27
5 5 The Trial of the Chicago 7
5 3 5 4 4 3 5 4 5 3 5 5 4 13 23

Rank Last Chart Editing AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 2 The Trial of the Chicago 7
1 1 3 1 2 1 4 1 1 2 1 1 1 13 58
2 3 Sound of Metal
2 4 1 3 1 3 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 13 50
3 1 Nomadland
4 2 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 4 4 4 3 13 42
4 4 The Father
3 3 5 4 4 4 3 5 5 5 3 3 5 13 26
5 5 Promising Young Woman
5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 5 5 4 13 19

Rank Last Chart Production Designer AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Mank
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4 2 4 2 2 2 4 3 4 3 5 3 2 13 38
3 4 Tenet
5 4 2 3 4 5 2 4 2 2 4 4 4 13 33
4 5 The Father
3 5 3 5 3 3 3 5 5 4 3 2 3 13 31
5 3 News of the World
2 3 5 4 5 4 5 2 3 5 2 5 5 13 28

Rank Last Chart Costume Design AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Emma.
2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 13 48
3 3 Mank
3 2 3 3 2 3 4 4 5 3 3 2 2 13 39
4 4 Mulan
4 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 13 26
5 5 Pinocchio
5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 13 17

Rank Last Chart Makeup AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 13 63
2 3 Mank
4 2 3 2 3 2 4 4 4 3 5 4 3 13 35
3 4 PInocchio
2 3 4 5 2 5 5 5 2 2 2 2 5 13 34
4 2 Hillbilly Elegy
3 5 5 3 4 3 3 2 1 5 4 5 2 13 33
5 5 Emma.
5 4 2 4 5 4 2 3 5 4 3 3 4 13 30

Rank Last Chart Animated Feature AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Soul
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Wolfwalkers
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 13 52
3 3 Over the Moon
4 3 5 3 4 3 3 4 4 3 5 4 4 13 29
4 4 Onward
5 4 4 5 3 5 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 13 25
5 5 A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
3 5 3 4 5 4 5 5 3 5 4 5 3 13 24

Rank Last Chart Best Score AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Soul
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 13 64
2 3 Minari
3 4 2 2 2 3 5 4 1 5 2 2 3 13 40
3 2 Mank
2 2 5 3 3 2 3 3 4 2 5 4 2 13 38
4 5 Da 5 Bloods
5 3 4 4 5 5 2 5 3 3 4 3 5 13 27
5 4 News of the World
4 5 3 5 4 4 4 2 5 4 3 5 4 13 26

Rank Last Chart Best Song AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Speak Now
One Night in Miami…
1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 1 2 13 59
2 2 Io Sô
The Life Ahead
3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 1 4 2 5 13 42
3 5 Husavik
Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
2 2 1 5 2 5 3 4 1 2 3 4 4 13 40
4 2 Fight For You
Judas and the Black Messiah
4 5 4 5 5 4 5 3 5 5 1 3 1 13 28
5 4 Hear My Voice
The Trial of the Chicago 7
5 4 5 4 4 3 5 5 4 4 5 5 3 13 22

Rank Last Chart Best Sound AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Sound of Metal
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
3 Soul
2 2 2 3 2 3 2 4 2 4 2 5 2 13 43
5 Greyhound
5 5 3 2 3 2 4 5 3 2 5 4 5 13 30
2 Mank
3 3 4 4 5 4 5 3 4 3 4 2 4 13 30
4 News of the World
4 4 5 5 4 5 3 2 5 5 3 3 3 13 27

Rank Last Chart Visual Effects AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Tenet
1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 12 57
2 The Midnight Sky
2 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 12 47
4 The One And Only Ivan
5 4 5 3 3 5 4 2 3 4 4 1 12 29
3 Mulan
3 3 3 5 4 2 3 4 4 5 3 5 12 28
5 Love and Monsters
4 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 3 5 4 12 19

Rank Last Chart Documentary Short AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 A Concerto Is a Conversation
2 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 13 57
2 A Love Song for Latasha
1 2 4 1 2 5 1 2 5 1 3 1 1 13 49
3 Hunger Ward
3 3 5 5 3 2 3 5 4 3 1 5 3 13 33
4 Colette
4 4 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 5 4 3 5 13 30
5 Do Not Split
5 5 1 4 5 4 5 4 2 4 5 4 4 13 26

Rank Last Chart Live Action Short AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Two Distant Strangers
1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 1 4 13 56
2 Feeling Through
3 3 1 4 2 2 3 2 4 4 2 3 2 13 43
3 The Letter Room
2 2 4 3 3 5 2 4 2 3 3 2 3 13 40
4 The Present
4 4 3 2 4 3 4 3 3 2 1 5 1 13 39
5 White Eye
5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 1 5 4 5 13 19

Rank Last Chart Best Animated Short AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 If Anything Happens I Love You
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 13 62
2 Burrow
3 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 1 2 2 3 2 13 49
3 Opera
4 4 3 4 2 5 4 4 1 5 3 2 4 13 33
4 Genius Loci
2 3 4 5 5 3 2 3 5 4 5 5 3 13 29
5 Yes-People
5 5 5 3 4 4 5 5 3 3 4 4 5 13 23

Your Friendly Neighborhood Gurus

Thelma AdamsAuthor, Top Critic on Rotten Tomatoes, Oscar Expert Twitter
Robyn BahrFreelance (Washington Post, GQ, Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian) Twitter
Gregory EllwoodThe Playlist Twitter
Peter HowellToronto Star Twitter
Mark JohnsonAwards Daily Twitter
Dave KargerTCM, IMDb Twitter
Wilson Morales: BlackFilmAndTV.com Twitter
Michael PattersonMichael’s Telluride Film BlogTwitter
David Poland: Movie City News Twitter
Steve PondThe Wrap, Twitter
NathanielRThe Film Experience Twitter
Jeff SneiderCollider Twitter
Sasha StoneAwards Daily Twitter

9 Responses to “Gurus o’ Gold Pull Into the Station”

  1. Bradley Laing says:

    The documentary short “Do Not Split” is seen as having little chance to win, but that is what made a government ban the Oscar television show in a specific place.

  2. Bradley Laing says:

    The documentary “Hunger Ward” (Director: Skye Fitzgerald) is about a famine in Yemen, and the starvation of children there. Is there a reason why “Do Not Split” would lead to banning the Oscar tv show in mainland China and Hong Kong, but “Hunger Ward” does not lead to some government banning the Oscar TV show in a place related to Yemen?

  3. Bob Burns says:

    Laura Pausini has been an international star for years. I look forward to her performance.

  4. Bradley Laing says:

    “—If there is an Oscar television show in 2021, will they thank Congress for the movie theater stimulus money, during the TV show?”

    —This was first posted on February 24, 2021. And other countries governments also provided either taxpayer money, or borrowed money, for theaters and other entertainment venues. So, not just the US Congress, a lot of tax payers and politicians should be thanked, world wide.

  5. Bob Burns says:

    Enjoying the show very much. Now we know how much is gained from dropping the production numbers.

    A whole lot is gained. We get to hear what the winners really want to say.

  6. Bradley Laing says:

    “Io sì (Seen)” by Laura Pausini did not win, but she did perform at the Oscar pre-show. Does she get a measurable form of recognition from that?

  7. Bradley Laing says:

    Did the movie venue bailout money get mentioned, or COVID in other places?

  8. Bob Burns says:

    Anti-climatic ending!!!!! The energy went out of the show before the halfway mark, and it went downhill all the way to the end.

    I bet the NFL draft, also on ABC, doubles the ratings.

  9. Jermsguy says:

    Moving Best Actor to be the last award backfired. They had no plan if Hopkins wound up winning, so it resulted in the biggest anticlimax in Oscar history. Hopkins was brilliant in The Father, too.

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