Gurus On A Tighter Race: Picture, Director, Acting, Writing

Gurus O'Gold

By Ray Pride

As Oscar nomination voting begins, the Gurus pick a cool couple from acting and directing categories, and seem to sense the possibility of a couple of neck-and-neck competitions in the final five nominations for screenplays. What will be the surprises and who will be the knockouts come nomination morning?

Rank	Last Chart	Best Picture	Bahr	Ellwood	Howell	Johnson	Karger	Morales	Patterson	Poland	Pond	Rogers	Sneider	Votes	Total
1	1	Nomadland	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	2	1	1	11	105
2	2	The Trial of the Chicago 7	2	3	2	1	1	1	1	5	1	2	2	11	100
3	3	Minari	5	2	3	4	4	5	3	7	5	3	4	11	76
4	4	Mank	3	7	6	3	3	3	4	4	8	4	7	11	69
5	6	Ma Rainey's Black Bottom	6	4	4	6	7	4	7	2	4	6	5	11	66
6	5	One Night in Miami...	4	5	5	7	5	9	6	9	3	5	3	11	60
7	7	Promising Young Woman	7	9	8	5	9	8	5	3	7	8	6	11	46
8	9	News of the World				8	10	7	9	8	6	9	8	8	23
9	8	The Father	9	6	7			10				7	10	6	17
10		Sound Of Metal			9	10			8	6			9	5	13
		Judas And The Black Messiah	10	8	10			6	10			10		6	12
	10	Da 5 Bloods	8			9	6				10			4	11
		Soul		10			8							2	4
One Vote Wonders
		Borat Subsequent Moviefilm								10				1	1

Rank	Last Chart	Best Director	Bahr	Ellwood	Howell	Johnson	Karger	Morales	Patterson	Poland	Pond	Rogers	Sneider	Votes	Total
1	1	Chloe Zhao Nomadland	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	11	22
2	3	Aaron Sorkin The Trial of the Chicago 7	2		2	2	2	2						5	5
3	2	David Fincher Mank							2		2	2		3	3
4	4	Lee Isaac Chung Minari		2									2	2	2
	5	Regina King One Night in Miami												0	0
One Vote Wonders
5		Emerald Fennell Promising Young Woman								2				1	1

Rank	Last Chart	Best Actress	Bahr	Ellwood	Howell	Johnson	Karger	Morales	Patterson	Poland	Pond	Rogers	Sneider	Votes	Total
1	3	Carey Mulligan Promising Young Woman	1	2		1	1	2	1	2	1		2	9	14
2	1	Frances McDormand Nomadland	2		1		2		2	1		1	1	7	11
3	2	Viola Davis Ma Rainey's Black Bottom		1	2	2		1			2			5	7
	4	Vanessa Kirby Pieces Of A Woman												0	0
	4	Zendaya Malcolm & Marie												0	0
One Vote Wonders
4		Andra Day The United States Vs. Billie Holiday										2		1	1

Rank	Last Chart	Best Actor	Bahr	Ellwood	Howell	Johnson	Karger	Morales	Patterson	Poland	Pond	Rogers	Sneider	Votes	Total
1	1	Chadwick Boseman Ma Rainey's Black Bottom	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	11	22
2	3	Riz Ahmed Sound of Metal	2	2	2	2		2					2	6	6
3	2	Anthony Hopkins The Father					2		2	2	2	2		5	5
5	5	Gary Oldman Mank												0	0
	4	Delroy Lindo Da 5 Bloods												0	0

Rank	Last Chart	Supporting Actress	Bahr	Ellwood	Howell	Johnson	Karger	Morales	Patterson	Poland	Pond	Rogers	Sneider	Votes	Total
1	1	Olivia Colman The Father	2	2	2		1	1			1	2	2	8	11
2	3	Youn Yuh-jung Minari	1	1		2			2				1	5	8
3	5	Glenn Close Hillbilly Elegy				1			1			1		3	6
4		Jodie Foster The Mauritanian						2		2				2	2
5	2	Amanda Seyfried Mank					2				2			2	2
One Vote Wonders
	4	Maria Bakalova Borat Subsequent Moviefield			1									1	2

Rank	Last Chart	Supporting Actor	Bahr	Ellwood	Howell	Johnson	Karger	Morales	Patterson	Poland	Pond	Rogers	Sneider	Votes	Total
1	3	Daniel Kaluuya Judas & The Black Messiah	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		2	1	1	10	19
2	1	Sacha Baron Cohen The Trial of the Chicago 7	2		2	2		2	2	1		2		7	8
3	1	Leslie Odom Jr. One Night in Miami					2				1		2	3	4
	5	Paul Raci Sound Of Metal												0	0
One Vote Wonders
4	4	Chadwick Boseman Da 5 Bloods		2										1	1
5		David Straitharn Nomadland								2				1	1

Rank	Last Chart	Best Original Screenplay	Bahr	Ellwood	Howell	Johnson	Karger	Morales	Patterson	Poland	Pond	Rogers	Sneider	Votes	Total
1	1	The Trial of the Chicago 7	1	3	1	1	1	1	1	5	1	1	1	11	49
2	2	Promising Young Woman	2	1	3	2	3	2	2	1	2	2	2	11	44
3	3	Minari	4	2	2	4	2	5	3	2	3	3	3	11	33
4	4	Mank	3		5	3	4	4	4		5	4		8	16
5	5	Sound of Metal	5		4	5			5	3				5	8
		Soul		4			5				4		4	4	7
		Judas & The Black Messiah		5				3				5	5	4	6
One Vote Wonders
		Palm Springs								4				1	2

Rank	Last Chart	Best Adapted Screenplay	Bahr	Ellwood	Howell	Johnson	Karger	Morales	Patterson	Poland	Pond	Rogers	Sneider	Votes	Total
1	1	Nomadland	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	1	11	53
2	2	One Night in Miami...	2	3	2	2	2	4	2		2	1	2	10	38
3	4	The Father	4	1	4	4	3	2	4		3	2	4	10	29
4	3	Ma Rainey's Black Bottom	3	4	3	3	4	3	3	4	4	4	3	11	28
5	5	News of the World				5	5	5		5	5	5	5	7	7
		Borat Subsequent Moviefilm	5		5					3				3	5
		First Cow		5					5					2	2
One Vote Wonders
		I'm Thinking of Ending Things								2				1	4

Your Friendly Neighborhood Gurus

Your Friendly Neighborhood Gurus
Thelma Adams: Author, Top Critic on Rotten Tomatoes, Oscar Expert Twitter
Robyn Bahr: Freelance (Washington Post, GQ, Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian) Twitter
Gregory Ellwood: The Playlist Twitter
Peter Howell: Toronto Star Twitter
Mark Johnson: Awards Daily Twitter
Dave Karger: TCM, IMDb Twitter
Wilson Morales: BlackFilmAndTV.com Twitter
Michael Patterson: Michael’s Telluride Film Blog; Twitter
David Poland: Movie City News Twitter
Steve Pond: The Wrap, Twitter
NathanielR: The Film Experience Twitter
Jeff Sneider: Collider Twitter
Sasha Stone: Awards Daily Twitter

One Response to “Gurus On A Tighter Race: Picture, Director, Acting, Writing”

Bradley Laing says:

March 6, 2021 at 11:51 am

As I remember it, years ago, some of the right wing editorials I read pointed to the small box office of the Oscar Nominees, with a comparison and contrast with “The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe” box office. All of the ten “best picture” (possible) nominees above have suffered through an epidemic of low ticket sales. If someone used box office totals to measure the public interest in a movie, I think all of the above would look bad.

MCN Commentary & Analysis See All

THB #93: The Batman (no spoilers)

David Poland | March 6, 2022

THB #76: 9 Weeks To Oscar

David Poland | January 26, 2022

THB #73: Netflix Is Chilled

David Poland | January 24, 2022

The News Curated by Ray Pride See All

-30-

May 1, 2022

"Netflix, the great disrupter whose algorithms and direct-to-consumer platform have forced powerful media incumbents to rethink their economic models, now seems to need a big strategy change itself. It got me thinking about the simple idea that my film and TV production company Blumhouse is built on: If you give artists a lot of creative freedom and a little money upfront but a big stake in the movie’s or TV show’s commercial success, more often than not the result will be both commercial (the filmmakers are incentivized to make films that will resonate with audiences) and artistically interesting (creative freedom!). This approach has yielded movies as varied as Get Out (made for $4.5 million, with worldwide box office receipts of more than $250 million), Whiplash (made for $3.3 million, winner of three Academy Awards), The Invisible Man (made for $7 million, earned more than $140 million) and Paranormal Activity (made for $15,000, grossed more than $190 million).From the beginning, the most important strategy I used to persuade artists to work with me was to make radically transparent deals: We usually paid the artists (“participants” in Hollywood lingo) the absolute minimum allowable by union contracts upfront, with the promise of healthy bonuses based on actual box office results—instead of the opaque 'percentage points' that artists are usually offered. Anyone can see box office results immediately, so creators don’t quarrel with the payouts. In fact, when it comes time for an artist to collect a bonus based on box office receipts, I email a video clip of myself dropping the check off at FedEx to the recipient."
Jason Blum Sees Room For "Scrappier" Netflix

The New York Times | April 30, 2022

"As a critic Gavin was entertaining, wry, questioning, sensitive, perceptive"
Critic-Filmmaker Gavin Millar Was 84; Films Include Cream In My Coffee, Dreamchild

April 29, 2022

Disney Executive Geoff Morrell Out After Less Than Four Months

The New York Times | April 29, 2022