Gurus O'Gold

Gurus On A Tighter Race: Picture, Director, Acting, Writing

As Oscar nomination voting begins, the Gurus pick a cool couple from acting and directing categories, and seem to sense the possibility of a couple of neck-and-neck competitions in the final five nominations for screenplays. What will be the surprises and who will be the knockouts come nomination morning?


Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Nomadland
1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 11 105
2 2 The Trial of the Chicago 7
2 3 2 1 1 1 1 5 1 2 2 11 100
3 3 Minari
5 2 3 4 4 5 3 7 5 3 4 11 76
4 4 Mank
3 7 6 3 3 3 4 4 8 4 7 11 69
5 6 Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
6 4 4 6 7 4 7 2 4 6 5 11 66
6 5 One Night in Miami...
4 5 5 7 5 9 6 9 3 5 3 11 60
7 7 Promising Young Woman
7 9 8 5 9 8 5 3 7 8 6 11 46
8 9 News of the World
8 10 7 9 8 6 9 8 8 23
9 8 The Father
9 6 7 10 7 10 6 17
10 Sound Of Metal
9 10 8 6 9 5 13
Judas And The Black Messiah
10 8 10 6 10 10 6 12
10 Da 5 Bloods
8 9 6 10 4 11
Soul
10 8 2 4
One Vote Wonders
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
10 1 1

Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Chloe Zhao
Nomadland
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 3 Aaron Sorkin
The Trial of the Chicago 7
2 2 2 2 2 5 5
3 2 David Fincher
Mank
2 2 2 3 3
4 4 Lee Isaac Chung
Minari
2 2 2 2
5 Regina King
One Night in Miami
0 0
One Vote Wonders
5 Emerald Fennell
Promising Young Woman
2 1 1

Rank Last Chart Best Actress AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 3 Carey Mulligan
Promising Young Woman
1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 9 14
2 1 Frances McDormand
Nomadland
2 1 2 2 1 1 1 7 11
3 2 Viola Davis
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
1 2 2 1 2 5 7
4 Vanessa Kirby
Pieces Of A Woman
0 0
4 Zendaya
Malcolm & Marie
0 0
One Vote Wonders
4 Andra Day
The United States Vs. Billie Holiday
2 1 1

Rank Last Chart Best Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Chadwick Boseman
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 22
2 3 Riz Ahmed
Sound of Metal
2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6
3 2 Anthony Hopkins
The Father
2 2 2 2 2 5 5
5 5 Gary Oldman
Mank
0 0
4 Delroy Lindo
Da 5 Bloods
0 0

Rank Last Chart Supporting Actress AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Olivia Colman
The Father
2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 8 11
2 3 Youn Yuh-jung
Minari
1 1 2 2 1 5 8
3 5 Glenn Close
Hillbilly Elegy
1 1 1 3 6
4 Jodie Foster
The Mauritanian
2 2 2 2
5 2 Amanda Seyfried
Mank
2 2 2 2
One Vote Wonders
4 Maria Bakalova
Borat Subsequent Moviefield
1 1 2

Rank Last Chart Supporting Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 3 Daniel Kaluuya
Judas & The Black Messiah
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 10 19
2 1 Sacha Baron Cohen
The Trial of the Chicago 7
2 2 2 2 2 1 2 7 8
3 1 Leslie Odom Jr.
One Night in Miami
2 1 2 3 4
5 Paul Raci
Sound Of Metal
0 0
One Vote Wonders
4 4 Chadwick Boseman
Da 5 Bloods
2 1 1
5 David Straitharn
Nomadland
2 1 1

Rank Last Chart Best Original Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 The Trial of the Chicago 7
1 3 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 1 1 11 49
2 2 Promising Young Woman
2 1 3 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 11 44
3 3 Minari
4 2 2 4 2 5 3 2 3 3 3 11 33
4 4 Mank
3 5 3 4 4 4 5 4 8 16
5 5 Sound of Metal
5 4 5 5 3 5 8
Soul
4 5 4 4 4 7
Judas & The Black Messiah
5 3 5 5 4 6
One Vote Wonders
Palm Springs
4 1 2

Rank Last Chart Best Adapted Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Nomadland
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 11 53
2 2 One Night in Miami...
2 3 2 2 2 4 2 2 1 2 10 38
3 4 The Father
4 1 4 4 3 2 4 3 2 4 10 29
4 3 Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 11 28
5 5 News of the World
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
5 5 3 3 5
First Cow
5 5 2 2
One Vote Wonders
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
2 1 4

Your Friendly Neighborhood Gurus

Your Friendly Neighborhood Gurus
Thelma AdamsAuthor, Top Critic on Rotten Tomatoes, Oscar Expert Twitter
Robyn BahrFreelance (Washington Post, GQ, Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian) Twitter
Gregory EllwoodThe Playlist Twitter
Peter HowellToronto Star Twitter
Mark JohnsonAwards Daily Twitter
Dave KargerTCM, IMDb Twitter
Wilson Morales: BlackFilmAndTV.com Twitter
Michael PattersonMichael’s Telluride Film BlogTwitter
David Poland: Movie City News Twitter
Steve PondThe Wrap, Twitter
NathanielRThe Film Experience Twitter
Jeff SneiderCollider Twitter
Sasha StoneAwards Daily Twitter

One Response to “Gurus On A Tighter Race: Picture, Director, Acting, Writing”

  1. Bradley Laing says:

    As I remember it, years ago, some of the right wing editorials I read pointed to the small box office of the Oscar Nominees, with a comparison and contrast with “The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe” box office. All of the ten “best picture” (possible) nominees above have suffered through an epidemic of low ticket sales. If someone used box office totals to measure the public interest in a movie, I think all of the above would look bad.

MCN Commentary & Analysis See All

The News Curated by Ray Pride See All

Variety

"With Toronto, Telluride, Ven­ice, New York and other key fests opening amid an overcrowded field that includes films postponed from 2020, the acclaim, buzz and dis­tinction festivals bestow on award contenders is more important than ever — especially for spec­tacles such as Dune, which lose impact on the small screen in hybrid streaming/theatrical releases. Yet the surging Delta variant now threatens to derail premieres, star appearances, in-person screenings and the press, the public’s and Oscar vot­ers’ willingness to attend them.

"On August 27, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sci­ences postponed all screenings and in-person events for 2021. And on August 30, despite the U.S. having around 60 times as many COVID-19 cases as Canada and a much lower vaccination rate over the previous four weeks, per Johns Hopkins University data, the U.S. State Dept. advised Americans to “reconsider travel to Canada due to [a high level of] COVID-19” there.

“There’s nothing conclu­sive right now, and everyone is not quite sure how to proceed because of the nature of the COVID pandemic,” says Sony Pic­tures Classics co-president Tom Bernard. “Telluride and Toronto have changed what they are going to do dramatically in the last few weeks, putting in a lot more proto­cols. The New York Film Festival is to be determined—what are they and AFI Fest going to do? Running a festival is like trying to [control] an oil tanker. You can’t just stop it, [and most events] don’t have festival insurance where you can say, ‘COVID shut us down, we gotta get paid.’ It brings up a lot of questions that are really difficult to answer.”

"It wasn’t supposed to be this way..."

Variety | September 9, 2021

Twitter

“A coalition of some of the nation’s most powerful labor unions is pressuring the Federal Trade Commission to put the brakes on Amazon’s $8.45 billion gambit to buy MGM as the agency decides whether to approve the would-be takeover.”

Twitter | August 11, 2021

Twitter

Ethan Coen Quits?

Twitter | August 3, 2021

LA Times

Crisis Consultant Tells HFPA: “Consider what will happen if you do not pass the bylaws… Some of you may wish for an alternate future but the reality is totally different. As journalists, you understand what the headline will be if you do not pass these bylaws.”

LA Times | July 26, 2021

The Video Section See All

The Podcast Section See All