Gurus O'Gold

The Gurus Polish the Gold On Nomination Morning

There are sturdy favorites in the handicapping—Nomadland a few lengths ahead of the tied pair Minari and Trial of Chicago 7—but also categories with stirrings of a horserace. Sentiment has turned heavily toward Carey Mulligan (versus Frances McDormand) as well as Yuh-Jung Youn. Riz Ahmed and Anthony Hopkins draw about the same favor but some yards behind Chadwick Boseman; Daniel Kaluuya is prize among supporting male performances.

Nomadland is a far reach from other Adapted Screenplay nominees, including surprise back-of-the-pack The White Tiger. Stalk-and-talk Promising Young Woman and walk-and-talk Trial Of Chicago 7 are only words away from each other.

Nomadland leads for cinematography, but Mank is smoking right behind; Nomadland vies with close-at-hand Trial of Chicago 7 in the Editing heat.

The Gurus are definitely drunk on Another Round for International, while Production design seems to be on the scent of Mank while Tenet is lost to time.

Emma. and Mank are right on Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in the Costume Design department. In Makeup & Hair, Ma Rainey reigns over Meemaw in Hillbilly Elegy and Mank inside Mank.

Tenet suits up for lead in Visual Effects.

Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Nomadland
3 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 101
2 Minari
4 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 5 4 2 4 4 13 77
2 The Trial of the Chicago 7
2 5 4 4 1 3 1 3 2 3 3 3 6 13 77
4 Promising Young Woman
7 3 3 2 4 5 4 4 4 2 7 6 2 13 64
5 Judas and the Black Messiah
6 7 5 8 5 6 5 6 3 7 5 2 3 13 49
6 Mank
1 4 8 6 7 4 6 5 6 6 8 8 5 13 43
7 The Father
8 6 6 5 6 8 8 8 8 5 4 7 8 13 30
8 Sound of Metal
5 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 7 13 28

Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Nomadland
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 4 Mank
2 4 2 4 4 4 2 3 3 4 2 4 2 13 38
3 2 Promising Young Woman
5 3 3 2 2 3 4 2 4 2 5 2 3 13 38
4 3 Minari
4 2 4 3 3 2 3 4 5 5 3 3 4 13 33
5 5 Another Round
3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 3 4 5 5 13 21

Rank Last Chart Best Actress AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 3 Viola Davis
2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 2 3 2 13 53
2 1 Carey Mulligan
1 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 4 2 3 13 47
3 2 Frances McDormand
4 1 2 2 4 2 4 4 1 3 1 1 4 13 45
4 4 Andra Day
3 5 4 4 2 4 3 3 5 2 3 4 1 13 35
5 5 Vanessa Kirby
5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 13 15

Rank Last Chart Best Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Chadwick Boseman
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 3 Anthony Hopkins
2 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 13 49
3 2 Riz Ahmed
3 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 13 42
4 4 Steven Yeun
4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 13 24
5 5 Gary Oldman
5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 5 13 15

Rank Last Chart Supporting Actress AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Yuh-Jung Youn
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 4 Glenn Close
3 2 4 4 2 5 2 3 2 4 2 4 2 13 39
3 2 Maria Bakalova
4 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 5 2 3 2 5 13 38
4 3 Olivia Colman
2 4 2 3 4 2 4 4 3 3 5 3 3 13 36
5 5 Amanda Seyfried
5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 13 17

Rank Last Chart Supporting Actor AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Daniel Kaluuya
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Sacha Baron Cohen
2 3 5 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 13 42
3 4 Paul Raci
4 4 2 3 3 4 3 4 2 2 2 2 5 13 38
4 3 Leslie Odom, Jr.
3 2 3 4 4 3 4 3 5 4 4 4 3 13 32
5 5 Lakeith Stanfield
5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 2 13 18

Rank Last Chart Original Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Promising Young Woman
1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 13 63
2 2 The Trial of the Chicago 7
2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 13 54
3 3 Minari
3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 5 3 5 4 13 33
4 4 Judas and the Black Messiah
5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 5 3 4 3 5 13 23
5 5 Sound of Metal
4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 3 13 22

Rank Last Chart Adapted Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Nomadland
1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 13 61
2 2 The Father
2 3 1 2 2 2 1 2 4 2 1 2 2 13 52
3 3 One Night In Miami...
5 2 3 4 3 3 4 4 1 3 3 5 4 13 34
4 4 Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
3 4 4 3 4 5 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 13 32
5 5 The White Tiger
4 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 13 16

Rank Last Chart International Feature AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Another Round
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Quo Vadis, Aida?
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 5 13 48
3 3 Collective
4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 4 3 3 3 13 35
4 4 The Man Who Sold His Skin
3 4 4 5 3 5 3 4 5 3 4 4 4 13 27
5 5 Better Days
5 5 5 4 5 3 5 5 4 5 5 5 2 13 20

Rank Last Chart Documentary Feature AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 4 My Octopus Teacher
1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 64
2 1 Time
4 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 3 2 5 13 43
3 2 Crip Camp
3 1 4 4 3 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 2 13 40
4 3 Collective
2 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 3 4 4 3 13 34
5 5 The Mole Agent
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 13 14

Rank Last Chart Best Cinematography AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Nomadland
2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 13 61
2 2 Mank
1 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 13 55
3 4 Judas and the Black Messiah
3 5 3 3 5 4 2 5 4 5 4 3 3 13 29
4 3 News of the World
4 4 4 5 3 5 4 3 3 4 3 4 5 13 27
5 5 The Trial of the Chicago 7
5 3 5 4 4 3 5 4 5 3 5 5 4 13 23

Rank Last Chart Editing AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 2 The Trial of the Chicago 7
1 1 3 1 2 1 4 1 1 2 1 1 1 13 58
2 3 Sound of Metal
2 4 1 3 1 3 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 13 50
3 1 Nomadland
4 2 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 4 4 4 3 13 42
4 4 The Father
3 3 5 4 4 4 3 5 5 5 3 3 5 13 26
5 5 Promising Young Woman
5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 5 5 4 13 19

Rank Last Chart Production Designer AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Mank
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4 2 4 2 2 2 4 3 4 3 5 3 2 13 38
3 4 Tenet
5 4 2 3 4 5 2 4 2 2 4 4 4 13 33
4 5 The Father
3 5 3 5 3 3 3 5 5 4 3 2 3 13 31
5 3 News of the World
2 3 5 4 5 4 5 2 3 5 2 5 5 13 28

Rank Last Chart Costume Design AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Emma.
2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 13 48
3 3 Mank
3 2 3 3 2 3 4 4 5 3 3 2 2 13 39
4 4 Mulan
4 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 13 26
5 5 Pinocchio
5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 13 17

Rank Last Chart Animated Feature AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Soul
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
2 2 Wolfwalkers
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 13 52
3 3 Over the Moon
4 3 5 3 4 3 3 4 4 3 5 4 4 13 29
4 4 Onward
5 4 4 5 3 5 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 13 25
5 5 A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
3 5 3 4 5 4 5 5 3 5 4 5 3 13 24

Rank Last Chart Makeup AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 13 63
2 3 Mank
4 2 3 2 3 2 4 4 4 3 5 4 3 13 35
3 4 PInocchio
2 3 4 5 2 5 5 5 2 2 2 2 5 13 34
4 2 Hillbilly Elegy
3 5 5 3 4 3 3 2 1 5 4 5 2 13 33
5 5 Emma.
5 4 2 4 5 4 2 3 5 4 3 3 4 13 30

Rank Last Chart Best Score AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Soul
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 13 64
2 3 Minari
3 4 2 2 2 3 5 4 1 5 2 2 3 13 40
3 2 Mank
2 2 5 3 3 2 3 3 4 2 5 4 2 13 38
4 5 Da 5 Bloods
5 3 4 4 5 5 2 5 3 3 4 3 5 13 27
5 4 News of the World
4 5 3 5 4 4 4 2 5 4 3 5 4 13 26

Rank Last Chart Best Song AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Speak Now
One Night in Miami…
1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 1 2 13 59
2 2 Io Sô
The Life Ahead
3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 1 4 2 5 13 42
3 5 Husavik
Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
2 2 1 5 2 5 3 4 1 2 3 4 4 13 40
4 2 Fight For You
Judas and the Black Messiah
4 5 4 5 5 4 5 3 5 5 1 3 1 13 28
5 4 Hear My Voice
The Trial of the Chicago 7
5 4 5 4 4 3 5 5 4 4 5 5 3 13 22

Rank Last Chart Best Sound AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Sound of Metal
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 13 65
3 Soul
2 2 2 3 2 3 2 4 2 4 2 5 2 13 43
5 Greyhound
5 5 3 2 3 2 4 5 3 2 5 4 5 13 30
2 Mank
3 3 4 4 5 4 5 3 4 3 4 2 4 13 30
4 News of the World
4 4 5 5 4 5 3 2 5 5 3 3 3 13 27

Rank Last Chart Visual Effects AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Tenet
1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 12 57
2 The Midnight Sky
2 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 12 47
4 The One And Only Ivan
5 4 5 3 3 5 4 2 3 4 4 1 12 29
3 Mulan
3 3 3 5 4 2 3 4 4 5 3 5 12 28
5 Love and Monsters
4 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 3 5 4 12 19

Your Friendly Neighborhood Gurus

Thelma AdamsAuthor, Top Critic on Rotten Tomatoes, Oscar Expert Twitter
Robyn BahrFreelance (Washington Post, GQ, Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian) Twitter
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Mark JohnsonAwards Daily Twitter
Dave KargerTCM, IMDb Twitter
Wilson Morales: BlackFilmAndTV.com Twitter
Michael PattersonMichael’s Telluride Film BlogTwitter
David Poland: Movie City News Twitter
Steve PondThe Wrap, Twitter
NathanielRThe Film Experience Twitter
Jeff SneiderCollider Twitter
Sasha StoneAwards Daily Twitter

2 Responses to “The Gurus Polish the Gold On Nomination Morning”

  1. William R Burns Jr says:

    If I was an Academy Member seeking to feel good about my vote, I’d give a BP Oscar to Ryan Coogler.

    Don’t underestimate Warner’s Oscar campaigns, ever. This feels like a Warner film. Moreso than their Sci-Fi condenders of late.

    Some voters might be put off by HBO+.

  2. John says:

    Anyone else feel like Chadwick Boseman’s Ma Rainey performance is good but if he hadn’t died, the Best Actor race would be between Riz Ahmed and Anthony Hopkins?

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