Gurus O'Gold

Gurus O’ Gold: Best Picture, Director, Original And Adapted Screenplay

With the WGA nominations in (and the caution that Oscar and WGA don’t share eligibility rules), the Gurus inscribe their predictions for the always-feisty categories of Best Original and Best Adapted Screenplay, where some of the most vibrant and even eccentric of any given year’s releases are often honored. A second look at Best Picture and Best Director show some interesting, if small shifts in sentiment: Promising Young Woman makes a mark in Original Screenplay, but also in Picture and Director. News of the World, with its Oscar-familiar contours, moves around a bit, and a few early contenders drop right off the Gurus’ table. What’s up with Aaron Sorkin’s latest walk-and-talk and sit-and-talk? Predictions show increasing favor The Trial of the Chicago 7 in several categories.

Coming right up: the Gurus handicap sentiment for what Golden Globe winners will pop out of this year’s virtual cocktail party, reading the signs of a wholly different kettle of fish.

Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Nomadland
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 12 114
2 2 The Trial of the Chicago 7
2 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 12 111
3 4 Minari
4 5 2 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 7 3 12 87
4 3 Mank
9 2 7 8 3 3 6 6 5 3 5 4 12 71
5 6 One Night in Miami...
7 4 5 6 7 5 7 4 4 5 2 6 12 70
6 5 Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3 6 4 5 6 7 5 5 6 6 6 8 12 65
7 7 Promising Young Woman
8 7 10 4 5 10 4 8 8 7 4 7 12 50
8 8 The Father
6 8 6 9 9 9 9 9 8 23
9 10 News of the World
5 9 10 7 8 5 6 22
10 9 Da 5 Bloods
9 10 9 6 10 7 10 10 8 17
Judas And The Black Messiah
10 10 9 8 8 8 10 9 8 16
Sound Of Metal
7 10 8 3 8
Soul
8 8 10 3 7
Palm Springs
0 0
Let Them All Talk
0 0
Tenet
0 0
I'm Thinking Of Ending Things
0 0
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
0 0
The Outpost
0 0
Malcolm & Marie
0 0
First Cow
0 0
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
0 0
On The Rocks
0 0
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
0 0

Rank Last Chart Best Director AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 1 Chloe Zhao
Nomadland
1 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 12 81
2 2 David Fincher
Mank
2 2 3 4 4 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 12 63
3 5 Aaron Sorkin
The Trial of the Chicago 7
3 3 4 5 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 11 60
4 3 Lee Isaac Chung
Minari
5 7 2 2 7 4 7 5 4 7 5 4 12 37
5 4 Regina King
One Night in Miami
4 4 5 7 5 5 6 7 5 6 4 5 12 33
Emerald Fennell
Promising Young Woman
6 5 6 3 3 7 4 6 4 6 7 11 31
Spike Lee
Da 5 Bloods
6 6 6 6 4 6 3 7 19
Paul Greengrass
News of the World
7 7 6 3 4
Florian Zeller
The Father
5 7 2 4
Lee Daniels
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
0 0
Christopher Nolan
Tenet
0 0
Darius Marder
Sound of Metal
0 0
One Vote Wonders
George C. Wolfe
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
6 1 2
Kelly Reichardt
First Cow
6 1 2
Shaka King
Judas and the Black Messiah
7 1 1

Rank Last Chart Best Original Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 The Trial of the Chicago 7
1 3 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 12 78
2 Promising Young Woman
2 2 1 2 2 4 4 2 4 2 1 2 12 68
3 Minari
3 4 3 1 4 3 6 3 2 3 3 4 12 57
4 Mank
4 1 6 5 3 2 5 4 3 4 4 3 12 52
5 Sound of Metal
7 6 5 4 5 6 2 5 7 5 5 6 12 33
Judas & The Black Messiah
5 5 7 7 3 7 5 7 17
Soul
4 6 5 5 6 5 14
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
6 6 7 7 7 7 6 8
Da 5 Bloods
7 6 6 3 5
Palm Springs
7 7 6 3 4

Rank Last Chart Best Adapted Screenplay AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 Nomadland
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 12 83
2 One Night in Miami...
4 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 12 69
3 Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2 3 4 2 3 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 12 56
4 The Father
5 4 3 4 4 3 2 4 3 5 4 5 12 50
5 News of the World
3 6 7 6 5 5 5 6 5 3 5 3 12 37
First Cow
6 7 5 5 6 6 5 7 6 9 19
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
5 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 8 15
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
7 7 7 7 7 5 5
One Vote Wonders
Emma
7 1 1
White Tiger
7 1 1

5 Responses to “Gurus O’ Gold: Best Picture, Director, Original And Adapted Screenplay”

  1. Bob Burns says:

    If the corruption of the HFPA bothered the Oscar campaign publicists, they would shut it down. From the outside looking in, the entire awards campaign trail is opaque, but strewn with apparent conflicts of interest. money, advertising, access to stars, entrance to private events. The academy and the guilds could clean all this up, but a certain level of corruption is seen as tolerable, even the outrageous Globes. American politicians are cheap. So are, it seems, the people who run the Academy, the guilds and the awards industry.
    The comparison is professional sports. The championships of professional sports, and sports reporting, feel much more transparent and clean than film awards.

  2. Serg says:

    All these shows always were and have been about corrupt studio heads buying publicity for their films. Some films you sell with the 3 Bs, others you sell with nominations and rave reviews.
    It’d be freaking laughable if Fincher doesn’t get director. Zhao will be back with better, higher-profile work for which she should get recognized, but Finch is overdue and directed a film like he always does, with a capital D.

    Zhao is just another international trust fund kid (check your local film school) who gets to travel the world pretending to have wisdom and something to say about hardships and suffering she has never gone through. Great filmmaker but give me work with a personal touch, that comes from an authentic place and maybe I’d respect her more. I say this having liked The Rider and Nomadland and her style of filmmaking.

  3. hcat says:

    How in the world is The Trial of Chicago 7 an original screenplay? There has been a play and books on the subject. Did he just go by the transcript and fill in the rest?

  4. Bradley Laing says:

    “As part of the $900 billion pandemic relief package that Congress passed at the end of 2020, “$15 billion in dedicated funding for live venues, independent movie theaters, and cultural institutions,” according to a Dec. 20 statement from Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer. However, as February comes to a close, those businesses have not yet received those funds.

    In fact, the Small Business Administration that will be distributing the money via Shuttered Venue Operators Grants hasn’t opened the application process and doesn’t even have a starting date scheduled. While everyone knows that the wheels of government turn slowly, time is running out for many venues that haven’t been open for nearly a full year.

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"With Toronto, Telluride, Ven­ice, New York and other key fests opening amid an overcrowded field that includes films postponed from 2020, the acclaim, buzz and dis­tinction festivals bestow on award contenders is more important than ever — especially for spec­tacles such as Dune, which lose impact on the small screen in hybrid streaming/theatrical releases. Yet the surging Delta variant now threatens to derail premieres, star appearances, in-person screenings and the press, the public’s and Oscar vot­ers’ willingness to attend them.

"On August 27, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sci­ences postponed all screenings and in-person events for 2021. And on August 30, despite the U.S. having around 60 times as many COVID-19 cases as Canada and a much lower vaccination rate over the previous four weeks, per Johns Hopkins University data, the U.S. State Dept. advised Americans to “reconsider travel to Canada due to [a high level of] COVID-19” there.

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Crisis Consultant Tells HFPA: “Consider what will happen if you do not pass the bylaws… Some of you may wish for an alternate future but the reality is totally different. As journalists, you understand what the headline will be if you do not pass these bylaws.”

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