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BYOB 10 March 2020

32 Responses to “BYOB 10 March 2020”

  1. Stella's Boy says:

    After all the ballyhoo it seems like The Hunt is a toothless satire and total snooze that plays it safe with a weak “both sides are bad can’t we all just get along” message. That’s a bummer. Another Joker which was also a massive bore and total dud after all the hype and controversy.

  2. amblinman says:

    So. Fuck are studios gonna do as we head into summer movie season, which now begins in March? Everything can’t be postponed to fall. I’m curious what Disney does with Black Widow. I guess the simple answer is postpone it buuuuut…Disney+ premiere? Rip the bandaid off something you know is coming sooner or later and have a great excuse to execute now?

  3. Stella's Boy says:

    Will movie theaters close? Or have some already? We got a free year of Disney+ and in the last two or so months have hardly watched anything and our kids have shown no interest in it. I’m sure that’s not the norm but I thought they’d be more excited about it. Black Widow looks perfect for a streaming service. Trailer is boring.

  4. Hcat says:

    I hate to disagree (am I allowed to say that on the internet?) but a Disney+ premiere would be VERY problematic…

    A) Not sure what the budget is but there is no way they can make the numbers work dropping it to 28 million subscribers, a third of which aren’t paying for the service anyway.

    B) They are likely trying to launch the little sister as the new Black Widow, they need as many eyeballs to see this to make it happen.

    C) Films are always better on the big screen, they are in the envious position of being able to normally get crowds out to the theater to watch these, the impact of having seen this on the big screen will only help through the long tail of its existence.

    D) Theater owners who are already going to have a harder time than the studios will understand if their first week of May tentpole kickoff is postponed but will go absolutely NUTS if it moves to a streamer.

    As for what else is postponed. I would think F9 might bounce, it desperately needs a healthy Asia to cover the cost. Disney would have trouble postponing because it will just pile into their next tentpole, Paramount will keep their schedule if only because they desperately need any and all cash it can get its hands on. Of course things can change if everything goes to hell and 5% of the population comes down with the virus, this is uncharted territory.

    On an unrelated note, in his statement to the court Weinstein said “My industry career is over, my only mission now is to help.” Which immediately reminded me of the exchange between the manager and the newly downsized employee in Broadcast News “Let me know if there is anything I can do to help.” “Well, you can certainly die soon.”

  5. Stella's Boy says:

    I’m sorry but disagreements will not be permitted. Please see yourself out. No you’re right of course. I was being a little snarky because I think it looks very dull. But you can’t have a huge movie like that drop on Disney+. Was just reading this story about how decisions on what’s a streaming movie are being made. Interesting read. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/hollywoods-new-dilemma-is-a-movie-worthy-movie-theaters-1283514

    Rot in prison Harvey. Hope your remaining years are miserable and slow.

  6. Amblinman says:

    @hcat fair points. In response to a couple:

    – You’re discounting the new eyeballs Black Widow would bring to the service, assuming the sub base would stay static. The idea would be expand the subscriber base which in turn creates more views for existing content.

    -Disney can afford to take the hit financially if the alternative is moving the film to a worse place on the calendar. And it will be competing with any number of blockbusters that have had to do likewise. Disney+ gives the company a unique platform and spotlight other studios don’t have.

    -All roads lead to streaming. That has to be the endgame for Disney (fuck thanks).

    Fuck Harvey Weinstein. He still got to live the best years of his life crushing the best years of others. This is justice if it happens 23 years ago.

  7. Hcat says:

    Amblin,

    Thank you for the excuse to crunch entertainment numbers! At 8 bucks a month 28 million subscribers Disney brings in 224 Million (this is generous as we don’t know what the services offering + as an add-on to an existing service are paying for their bulk rate). Based on the likely budget floor of $150 million and likely already 50 million already spent on advertising they would be looking at 200 to 300 million to break even. That would be the entire month’s nut, nothing going to infrastructure, nothing going to the other watched products.

    It would bring some additional eyeballs to the service, likely through a one to two week trial, some would stay but I would think most of the Marvel diehards already have the service, and the rest of the population that wanders into the theaters for tentpoles might recognize how disposable the films are to them. Plunking down 12 bucks for a night out with friends to kick off the summer is a different purchase than plunking down another 8 to watch something on television.

    As for Disney being able to take financial hits, that is getting to be less true by the hour. Mulan is going to take a hit if Asia stays dark and theatrical is not even their biggest worry. Their bread and butter are cruises and theme parks, which currently have the same financial outlook for the next year as a Seattle kissing booth. Plus less people strolling through Target and Wal-Mart is going to hurt their retail sales. The are carrying 50 billion dollars in debt and their market cap has shrunk by a third since launching Disney +. If we fall into a recession, additional streaming services can quickly be seen as a luxury. At this point they need to at least be planning for some lean times ahead.

    Comcast’s idea of an add supported free streamer is starting to look pretty smart. With or without the Olympics.

  8. Hcat says:

    Also, there would have to be a majestic amount of legal wrangling regarding a switch from theatrical to streaming. The principals’ backend is likely much smaller than the 90’s heyday but I can’t imagine that Johansson wouldn’t get some cut at 4, 5, 6 hundred million WW gross.

  9. Stella's Boy says:

    And now A Quiet Place II moves with no new date announced. Surely others will soon follow? Will theaters stay open?

  10. Hcat says:

    Tiny theaters maybe?

    California just asked for events of 250 or more be canceled. As this ramps up I would think people are starting to have the possible enormity of this sink in. It will likely take another week before everyone takes this seriously. By the 20th theaters might find it better to go dark because no one is showing up.

  11. Amblinman says:

    @hcat: what’s Johansson’s backend on a film kicked to a TBD release date? I think your arguments rely on an “all things being equal” context. As we see with entertainment related events nothing is equal anymore. It’s all batshit now.

  12. Stella's Boy says:

    Are people here still going to the movies? Anyone have reservations about venturing out to a theater at the moment?

  13. leahnz says:

    ‘captain trumpps’ is a bit earlier on in its proliferation here but when i went to see ‘invisible man’ recently at our local this old geezer sitting behind us started coughing his guts out and you could tell everyone in the relatively small theatre was horrified but too reserved to do more than glare at him — and then the usher came down the row and asked him to leave until he was no longer throwing a lung due to “health precautions”! he was completely befuddled and i was genuinely shocked at this safety dance but blech that did put me right off. better safe than sorry.

  14. Stella's Boy says:

    That would be a bit nerve wracking at the moment. The big chain theater here sent out an email today outlining the steps they’re taking. More cleanings, hand sanitizer everywhere, staff training, etc. A popular indie theater sent a similar email but also said for a month or so they won’t sell more than 33% of the seats in any of their three auditoriums. Cancelled all special event screenings.

  15. leahnz says:

    you’re in a particular orange pickle with The Imbecile Sadists in charge, brace yourselves (i’m super worried about some of my family there who are a bit older and more vulnerable)

  16. YancySkancy says:

    I’m in Southern Indiana, in a market of around 120,000 people. My girlfriend and I went to the local 16-screen AMC on $5 Tuesday, a day which usually attracts a pretty good turnout. There were maybe three other cars in the parking lot. I had to have a ticket taker track down the concession worker (one guy) so we could get some popcorn, etc. The popcorn popper looked empty, so I assume I was served leftovers from the day before or something. Maybe half a dozen other people came in before our movie. When we left, there were a few more cars in the lot, but not many. In terms of social distancing, this particular trip to movies worked out rather well, I suppose, but of course it’s not a viable way to run a business. With the studios pulling tentpoles, I don’t see how the theaters will justify staying open during the crisis.

    By the way, my girlfriend insisted we bring along a can of Lysol spray in her purse so we could disinfect arm rests and cup holders. But popcorn, chicken tenders and fries are all finger foods, and you can’t spray them, so…

  17. Hcat says:

    ‘so they won’t sell more than 33% of the seats in any of their three auditoriums’

    mine is getting more aggressive, they are putting Cats on every screen.

  18. Stella's Boy says:

    Yeah leah it’s not comforting to think about how Fox News is basically running the response.

    So we can expect the box office to be pretty low this weekend? Historically low perhaps? Like a Labor Day weekend box office. Cats-only screenings. That would certainly keep the theater empty.

  19. Stella's Boy says:

    Kids off school for a month. Shit is about to get real.

  20. Hcat says:

    Stella, did I recall you’re in Virginia?

  21. Stella's Boy says:

    Wisconsin. Few miles outside of Milwaukee. They just canceled school in all of the districts around here until April 13.

  22. Hcat says:

    In Illinois, ours schools just went down until the 30th.

    People are starting to panic shop, a coworker was at Sam’s last night and said they were cleaned out of meat. He saw two people buying freezers. We do a lot of things well in this country, happy medium is not one of them.

  23. Stella's Boy says:

    Hey we’re neighbors. Lots of panic shopping here, too. People buying all the toilet paper as well as soap. Seems like places are still busy. Box office won’t be great this weekend but people definitely still going to movies. Stay safe and take care. Going to be an interesting 30 days.

  24. Stella's Boy says:

    Theater that announced they’d only sell 33% of tickets for each screening is now closing entirely from March 14 – April 9.

  25. Amblinman says:

    I do not understand the toilet paper stuff. It literally grows on trees.

  26. leahnz says:

    christ on a cracker y’all are in big fucking trouble, with a demented stone psychopath (who, incidentally, just happens to you know, SPRAY PAINT HIS FACE ORANGE with white racoon eyes cut-outs AND NOBODY TALKS ABOUT IT hahahahaha ha…ha…, dumber than a sack of hair, with one functioning brain cell that’s a black pit of malice with a dollar sign free-floating in space) at the wheel.

    re TP: supply chain disruption? just drag yer ass across the lawn like a dog
    (no same here, but there’s still loads of kleenex on the shelf…i’ve been properly stocking up for the dumbpocolypse since ’16 so mostly sweet if i manage to survive the marauding suburban hordes)

  27. leahnz says:

    good night & good luck

  28. Amblinman says:

    Hcat: Disney+ is releasing Frozen 2 on the service this weekend to capitaliz… Help families in this time of need.

    Black Widow is totally gonna premiere on Disney+. You watch. It’s gonna be a gigantic thing.

  29. Stella's Boy says:

    The Hunt should go premium VOD right now. Fairly low budget but awareness must be pretty high. Good movie for a premium VOD test run.

  30. YancySkancy says:

    Amblinman: I assume the toilet paper hoarding is related to self-quarantine/social distancing — if you’ve got a ton of it, you won’t have to go out for it again for a while.

    Now AMC is saying they won’t sell over half-capacity for any shows. I don’t think they’ll have to worry about that too much.

  31. Stella's Boy says:

    Someone I follow on Twitter said they caught a double feature at an Alamo Drafthouse tonight (not sure which one) and that it was nearly full. Seems a little foolish.

  32. leahnz says:

    i was sent this so passing it around fyi

    pls be careful with information sources; COVID-19 is a highly infectious virus that causes respiratory failure, not comparable to influenza—up to 14-day incubation and asymptomatic carriers with the contagion in airborne lung particulates and urine/waste means community infection was inevitable (especially with grossly and purposely inadequate testing in order to keep confirmed case numbers artificially low, in order to appease wannabe dictators whose only concern is power/$$$).

    time has run out, and the middling death rate—as opposed to something like ebola— means the spread of the contagion is heinous. healthy young people are also dying (my friend’s son just returned after quarantine in japan. his mate’s 25-year-old cousin with no health issues died there). drastic measures are the only action that can flatten the curve.

    Read “Social Distancing: This Is Not A Snow Day

    take care out there

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