Gurus O'Gold

Gurus O’ Gold: Best Picture & Unlikely Underdogs

Rank Last Chart Best Picture AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
1 2 Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
1 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 11 129
2 1 The Irishman
2 2 4 4 2 1 2 4 2 3 5 11 112
3 3 Parasite
4 3 3 2 4 2 3 5 4 2 4 11 107
4 4 Marriage Story
3 5 6 6 5 4 5 6 5 6 3 11 89
5 5 1917
5 4 2 3 3 5 4 1 3 5 2 11 84
6 8 Little Women
6 7 5 8 8 6 10 7 6 8 8 11 64
7 7 Joker
7 9 8 7 7 7 7 10 8 4 6 11 63
8 6 Jojo Rabbit
6 7 5 6 9 6 3 7 7 7 10 47
9 9 Ford v Ferrari
10 9 9 10 11 8 8 9 9 11 10 36
10 Knives Out
9 11 11 12 12 12 10 10 8 17
t-10 Bombshell
11 10 9 11 11 10 6 16
t-10 The Two Popes
10 9 9 11 11 5 15
The Farewell
8 8 10 12 12 12 9 7 6
Uncut Gems
10 12 12 12 4 6
Rocketman
12 11 2 3

0 0
One Vote Wonders
Dolemite Is My Name
8 1 5
Rank Last Chart Underdogs 2019 AdamsBahrEllwoodHowellJohnsonKargerMoralesPattersonPolandPondRogersSneiderStone Votes Total
The Farewell
* * * 3 3
Adam Sandler
Uncut Gems
* * 2 2
Christian Bale
Ford v Ferrari
* * 2 2
Tracy Letts
Ford v Ferrari
* * 2 2
Hustlers
* * 2 2
Greta Gerwig
Director, Little Women
* * 2 2
Zhao Shuzhen
The Farewell
* * 2 2
Taylor Russell
Waves
* * 2 2
One Vote Wonders
Kevin Garnett
Uncut Gems
* 1 1
Uncut Gems
* 1 1
Jonathan Pryce
The Two Popes
* 1 1
Julie Hagerty
* 1 1
Bill Camp
Dark Waters
* 1 1
Avengers: Endgame
* 1 1
Hidden Life
* 1 1
Almodóvar
Director, Pain & Glory
* 1 1
John Lithgow
Bombshell
* 1 1
Terminator: Dark Fate
FX
* 1 1
Paul Walter Hauser
RIchard Jewell
* 1 1
Todd Phillips
Joker
* 1 1
Jessie Buckley
Wild Rose
* 1 1
Ad Astra
* 1 1
A Beautiful Day
* 1 1
Pain & Glory
* 1 1
Uncut Gems
Film Editing
* 1 1
Honeyboy
* 1 1
Harriet
* 1 1
The Safdies
Uncut Gems
* 1 1
I Lost My Body
Score
* 1 1
Rocketman
Production Design
* 1 1
Willem Dafoe
The Lighthouse
* 1 1
Song Kang-ho
Parasite
* 1 1
Julia Butters
Once Upon A Time ...
* 1 1
Nahéma Ricci
Antigone
* 1 1
The Peanut Butter Falcon
* 1 1
Daniel Craig
Knives Out
* 1 1
Florence Pugh
Midsommar
* 1 1
Camila Morrone
Mickey and the Bear
* 1 1
Sienna Miller
American Woman
* 1 1
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
* 1 1
Annette Bening
The Report
* 1 1
Taika Waititi
Jojo Rabbit
* 1 1
Just Mercy
* 1 1
Timothée Chalamet
Little Women
* 1 1

The Gurus, At Your Service

Thelma AdamsAuthor, Critic, Oscar Expert @thelmadams
Robyn BahrFreelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian) @RobynBahr
Gregory EllwoodThe Playlist @TheGregoryE
Peter HowellToronto Star @peterhowellfilm
Mark JohnsonAwards Circuit
Dave KargerTCM, IMDb
Wilson MoralesBlackFilm.com
Michael PattersonMichael’s Telluride Film BlogTwitterFacebook
David Poland @DavidPoland
Steve PondThe Wrap
NathanielRThe Film Experience
Sasha StoneAwards Daily @AwardsDaily
Jeff SneiderCollider @TheInSneider

3 Responses to “Gurus O’ Gold: Best Picture & Unlikely Underdogs”

  1. Bradley Laing says:

    —is there a possibility that the animated short film “Le Mans 1955” will be nominated.

  2. Terry says:

    Please excuse my ignorance, but what does ‘Underdogs 2019’ represent?

  3. Ray Pride says:

    The Gurus predict what the Academy would do. The “underdogs” are personal preferences that are unlikely to make the cut on Monday.

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Variety

"With Toronto, Telluride, Ven­ice, New York and other key fests opening amid an overcrowded field that includes films postponed from 2020, the acclaim, buzz and dis­tinction festivals bestow on award contenders is more important than ever — especially for spec­tacles such as Dune, which lose impact on the small screen in hybrid streaming/theatrical releases. Yet the surging Delta variant now threatens to derail premieres, star appearances, in-person screenings and the press, the public’s and Oscar vot­ers’ willingness to attend them.

"On August 27, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sci­ences postponed all screenings and in-person events for 2021. And on August 30, despite the U.S. having around 60 times as many COVID-19 cases as Canada and a much lower vaccination rate over the previous four weeks, per Johns Hopkins University data, the U.S. State Dept. advised Americans to “reconsider travel to Canada due to [a high level of] COVID-19” there.

“There’s nothing conclu­sive right now, and everyone is not quite sure how to proceed because of the nature of the COVID pandemic,” says Sony Pic­tures Classics co-president Tom Bernard. “Telluride and Toronto have changed what they are going to do dramatically in the last few weeks, putting in a lot more proto­cols. The New York Film Festival is to be determined—what are they and AFI Fest going to do? Running a festival is like trying to [control] an oil tanker. You can’t just stop it, [and most events] don’t have festival insurance where you can say, ‘COVID shut us down, we gotta get paid.’ It brings up a lot of questions that are really difficult to answer.”

"It wasn’t supposed to be this way..."

Variety | September 9, 2021

Twitter

“A coalition of some of the nation’s most powerful labor unions is pressuring the Federal Trade Commission to put the brakes on Amazon’s $8.45 billion gambit to buy MGM as the agency decides whether to approve the would-be takeover.”

Twitter | August 11, 2021

Twitter

Ethan Coen Quits?

Twitter | August 3, 2021

LA Times

Crisis Consultant Tells HFPA: “Consider what will happen if you do not pass the bylaws… Some of you may wish for an alternate future but the reality is totally different. As journalists, you understand what the headline will be if you do not pass these bylaws.”

LA Times | July 26, 2021

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