Cord Cutter Diary: The First Cut
| February 21, 2020
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Picture | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Morales | Patterson | Poland | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
The Irishman |
1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 125 | ||||
| 2 | 2 |
Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood |
2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 121 | ||||
| 3 | 5 |
Parasite |
4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 99 | ||||
| 4 | 4 |
Marriage Story |
3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 97 | ||||
| 5 | 3 |
1917 |
6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 91 | ||||
| 6 | 6 |
Jojo Rabbit |
5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 76 | |||||
| 7 | 8 |
Joker |
8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 59 | ||||
| 8 | 7 |
Little Women |
5 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 51 | ||||
| 9 | 9 |
Ford v Ferrari |
9 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 46 | |||||
| t-10 |
Bombshell |
11 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 25 | ||||||||
| t-10 | 10 |
The Two Popes |
10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 25 | |||||||||
|
The Farewell |
7 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 13 | ||||||||||||
|
Knives Out |
10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 11 | ||||||||||||
|
Dolemite Is My Name |
12 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 8 | |||||||||||||
|
Uncut Gems |
9 | 12 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||
|
Just Mercy |
11 | 12 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Rocketman |
12 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Actress | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Morales | Patterson | Poland | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Renee Zellweger Judy |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 76 | ||||
| t-2 | 3 |
Scarlett Johansson Marriage Story |
3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 56 | ||||
| t-2 | 2 |
Charlize Theron Bombshell |
4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 56 | ||||
| 4 | 4 |
Saoirse Ronan Little Women |
2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 37 | ||||
| 5 |
Lupita Nyong'o US |
7 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 33 | |||||
| 5 |
Cynthia Erivo Harriet |
7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 32 | ||||||
|
Awkwafina The Farewell |
5 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 16 | ||||||||
|
Alfre Woodard Clemency |
7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Florence Pugh Midsommar |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Jodie Turner-Smith Queen and Slim |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actress | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Morales | Patterson | Poland | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Laura Dern Marriage Story |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 77 | ||||
| 2 | 2 |
Jennifer Lopez Hustlers |
2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 61 | ||||
| 3 | 4 |
Margot Robbie Bombshell |
5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 51 | |||||
| 4 |
Scarlett Johansson JoJo Rabbit |
4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 32 | |||||||
| 5 | 5 |
Zhao Shuzhen The Farewell |
3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 26 | |||||||
| 3 |
Florence Pugh Little Women |
4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 24 | |||||||
|
Kathy Bates Richard Jewell |
5 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 20 | ||||||||
|
Nicole Kidman Bombshell |
6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 9 | ||||||||||||
|
Annette Bening The Report |
6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
|
Julia Butters Once Upon A Time... |
7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Julia Fox Uncut Gems |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Da’vine Joy Randolph Dolemite is My Name |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Thomasin McKenzie JoJo Rabbit |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Actor | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Morales | Patterson | Poland | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Adam Driver Marriage Story |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 71 | ||||
| 2 | 2 |
Joaquin Phoenix Joker |
4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 70 | ||||
| 3 | 5 |
Leonardo DiCaprio Once Upon A Time... |
5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 38 | ||||||
| 4 | 3 |
Robert De Niro The Irishman |
3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 33 | |||||
| 5 | 4 |
Antonio Banderas Pain and Glory |
7 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 27 | |||||
|
Christian Bale Ford v Ferrari |
4 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 20 | |||||||||||
|
Jonathan Pryce The Two Popes |
6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 17 | ||||||||||
|
Eddie Murphy Dolemite is My Name |
5 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 13 | ||||||||||||
|
Adam Sandler Uncut Gems |
2 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 11 | |||||||||||||
|
Taron Egerton Rocketman |
6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 8 | |||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Roman Griffin Davis Jojo Rabbit |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Supporting Actor | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Morales | Patterson | Poland | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Brad Pitt Once Upon a Time... |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 75 | ||||
| 2 | 3 |
Joe Pesci The Irishman |
2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 61 | ||||
| 3 | 2 |
Al Pacino The Irishman |
1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 59 | ||||
| 4 | 4 |
Tom Hanks A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood |
6 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 38 | ||||
| 5 | 5 |
Anthony Hopkins The Two Popes |
5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 30 | |||||
|
Willem Dafoe The Lighthouse |
7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 13 | ||||||||||
|
Jamie Foxx Just Mercy |
6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 12 | |||||||||||
|
Alan Alda Marriage Story |
7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | ||||||||||||||
|
Shia LaBeouf Honey Boy |
5 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 5 | ||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Timothée Chalamet Little Women |
4 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Sam Rockwell Richard Jewell |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Song Kang-ho Parasite |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Best Director | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Morales | Patterson | Poland | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Martin Scorsese The Irishman |
1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 70 | ||||
| 2 | 2 |
Quentin Tarantino Once Upon A Time ... |
2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 67 | ||||
| 3 | 3 |
Bong Joon-ho Parasite |
4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 51 | ||||
| 4 | 4 |
Sam Mendes 1917 |
6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 49 | ||||
| 5 | 5 |
Noah Baumbach Marriage Story |
3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 28 | ||||||
|
Greta Gerwig Little Women |
5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 14 | ||||||||||
|
Taika Waititi Jojo Rabbit |
7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 10 | ||||||||||||
|
Todd Phillips Joker |
6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 9 | |||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Lulu Wang The Farewell |
5 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Pedro Almodóvar Pain & Glory |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
James Mangold Ford v Ferrari |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Fernando Meirelles The Two Popes |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
The Safdies Uncut Gems |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Bombshell Jay Roach |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Original Screenplay | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Morales | Patterson | Poland | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t-1 | 1 |
Marriage Story |
1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 69 | ||||
| t-1 | 2 |
Once Upon A Time ... |
2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 69 | ||||
| 3 | 3 |
Parasite |
3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 58 | ||||
| 4 | 4 |
The Farewell |
4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 34 | ||||
| 5 | 5 |
Knives Out |
5 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 28 | ||||||
|
1917 |
7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 13 | ||||||||||||
|
Pain & Glory |
6 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 11 | ||||||||||||
|
Bombshell |
7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 8 | ||||||||||||
|
Uncut Gems |
5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 8 | |||||||||||||
|
Dolemite is My Name |
6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
|
Queen & Slim |
7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Booksmart |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Ford v Ferrari |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
|
Waves |
7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Last Chart | Adapted Screenplay | Adams | Bahr | Ellwood | Howell | Johnson | Karger | Morales | Patterson | Poland | Pond | Rogers | Sneider | Stone | Votes | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
The Irishman |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 73 | ||||
| 2 | 4 |
The Two Popes |
6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 57 | ||||
| 3 | 2 |
Jojo Rabbit |
3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 56 | ||||
| 4 | 3 |
Little Women |
2 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 46 | ||||
| 5 | 5 |
Joker |
7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 27 | |||||
|
A Beautiful Day... |
5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 26 | |||||||
|
Hustlers |
4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 10 | ||||||||||||
|
Just Mercy |
7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | |||||||||||||
|
Toy Story 4 |
7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| One Vote Wonders | |||||||||||||||||||
|
Richard Jewell |
6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
The Gurus, At Your Service
Thelma Adams: Author, Critic, Oscar Expert @thelmadams
Robyn Bahr: Freelance (Hollywood Reporter, Vanity Fair, Guardian) @RobynBahr
Gregory Ellwood: The Playlist @TheGregoryE
Peter Howell: Toronto Star @peterhowellfilm
Mark Johnson: Awards Circuit
Dave Karger: TCM, IMDb
Wilson Morales: BlackFilm.com
Michael Patterson: Michael’s Telluride Film Blog; Twitter; Facebook
David Poland @DavidPoland
Steve Pond: The Wrap
NathanielR: The Film Experience
Sasha Stone: Awards Daily @AwardsDaily
Jeff Sneider: Collider @TheInSneider
Cord Cutter Diary: The First Cut
| February 21, 2020
The State of Oscar. 021620. Oscar’s Climax (Pt 3 – Meaning).
| February 16, 2020
The State of Oscar. 021020. Oscar’s Climax (Pt 2 – The Show Review).
| February 11, 2020
| February 10, 2020
DP/30 Audio: Bombshell, Jay Roach
| December 13, 2019
DP/30 Audio: The Last Black Man in San Francisco, Jonathan Majors
| December 4, 2019
DP/30 Audio: The Mustang, Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre
| December 4, 2019
—this article does not list the short film about the 1955 Le Mans racing disaster. Does that mean it cannot get a nomination?
Best Animated Short cheat sheet: All 10 competitors with full details to help you predict 2020 Oscars
Charles Bright
Film December 21, 2019 12:00PM
More categories ranked in the New Year…
In the old days, it would have been The Two Popes vs. Little Women, but we may yet see that happen this year
You guys need to know that critics’ top 10 list mentions are an extremely strong predictor for Best Picture nominations (no surprise, right?). As of now Uncut Gems has 95 mentions (5th best) and 15 best-film-of-year nods (4th best), Knives Out has 75 and 6, and Jojo Rabbit has just 35 and 1.
For Best Director, 2 #5’s for Karger but no #4
fixed thx
—no “Le Mans 1955.”
Best animated short film nominees:
DCERA (DAUGHTER)
Daria Kashcheeva
HAIR LOVE
Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver
KITBULL
Rosana Sullivan and Kathryn Hendrickson
MEMORABLE
Bruno Collet and Jean-François Le Corre
SISTER
Siqi Song