Friday Estimates

Friday Box Office Estimates

Weak openings for Game Night and Annihilation are less interesting than the continuing story of Black Panther, which will pass $700 million worldwide this weekend. Only nine movies have ever cracked $1.3 billion and Black Panther is sure to be the tenth. It will likely fall behind The Avengers and be the all-time #2 Marvel movie. (But it probably won’t pass Furious 7 as the biggest non-summer/non-holiday grosser.) These landmark-porn details distract from its profound success: the only horse race between films is created by the media.

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Friday Box-Office Estimates

Roar.

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Friday Estimates

Wedding bonds, rabbit leaps, terror topped.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

One half-ass release, barely promoted or advertised. Holdovers defined by the two weekends since two wide releases for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day weekend with a single weak studio release each. Star Wars out of the Top 10 long before Jumanji. Some Oscar boost in expansions, though nothing blowing up. Super Bowl Sunday. Winter Olympics coming. Welcome to February.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Hollywood leaves the weekend to holdovers, with just the final Maze Runner opening wide. Hostiles expands and finds some buyers, but didn’t have the Oscar rocket fuel it had hoped for. The Shape of Water expands into the Top 10, joining The Post as the only Best Picture nominees in the 10.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

This is the weekend where Split opened to $40 million last year and xXx3 to $20 million. Nothing like that this year. Although a horror film, Split had a strong appeal to women. 12 Strong and Den of Thieves, no. The one female reach-out, Forever My Girl, looking like warmed-over Nicholas Sparks, is on only 1,115 screens and may be adversely affected by The Women’s March. These three new titles will not gross as much this weekend as the opening of Split last year. Oscar expansions should turn up in the Top 10 next week, following nominations. But there’s no big opener until February 9.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Jumanji continues as king of the jungle. The Post expands pretty much as expected. Liam Neeson and Jaume Collet-Serra team up again and do a little better than Run All Night, but not as well as Non-Stop. Proud Mary comes up short of tracking, but not as badly as it probably deserves. And Paddington 2 starts slow, but should pop up to #4 for the weekend as kids flood the room today and tomorrow.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The first weekend of 2018 is already stronger than the first weekend of 2017, led by a single newcomer, Insidious 4, whose Friday gross is about 2.5x last year’s first release, Underworld 5. Likewise, top holdover Jumanji 2 is about 25% stronger than last year’s Hidden Figures. And Star Wars: The Last Jedi is about 10% ahead of Rogue One, both on their 22nd day, as TLJ heads to something around $625 million domestic, aka #5 all-time domestic. Molly’s Game and Darkest Hour expand significantly while a few still-limited awards hopefuls expand incrementally.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Star Wars: The Last Jedi becomes the second fastest release to pass $500 million domestic today, ahead of Jurassic World and showing no signs of negative drag, aside from not matching the phenomenal opening of The Force Awakens, the first Star Wars movie in a decade. Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle is living up to box office expectations, heading to over $175 million domestic through the holiday, making it the biggest non-F&F Dwayne Johnson movie ever. Things are less happy after these two, with Pitch Perfect 3, The Greatest Showman, Ferdinand, All The Money In The World, Darkest Hour, and Downsizing are all underperforming even modest hopes.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The arrival of five, count ’em, five wide releases looking to take advantage of the Christmas window with one more landing on Christmas Day means… well… there are two more wide releases than last year in this window, and in limited releases meant to go wide, one fewer than last year’s five. So as the marketplace shows that people are willing to go see movies they are interested in on virtually any date, the industry keeps packing them into the traditional windows. Theatrical isn’t in trouble… but myopia causes problems, even on the holiday weekend. It’s not that the market can’t expand to allow for multiple big hits. It’s that the messaging is getting so thin with so many titles in play at one time, it can’t get an attentive foothold to propel bigger numbers.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

In what should not be a shocker, Star Wars: Episode 8 The Next Of Many did not have the explosive launch that Star Wars: Episode Seven – The First In a Decade. Still, the best December opening ever – aside from the aforementioned last Star Wars Mainframe – and a 30%+ bump from Rogue One, aka, the first offshoot episode. We know that Empire did a third less than Star Wars, right? Let’s not be surprised and horrified if The Last Jedi grosses only $600 million domestic, making it the sixth biggest domestic grosser of all-time. Attempting to counterprogram, Fox released a Blue Sky animated movie that will skew young, Ferdinand, to a brutal level of disinterest. The irony of the two openers this weekend is, also, brutal.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

A second consecutive abandoned weekend by the majors. Broad Green tries to take advantage of the hole by quietly rolling out Just Getting Started as the only wide release, but can’t come close to numbers that majors saw as failing when they opened this date in years past (including last year’s Office Christmas Party, which opened to $16.9m). As a result, soft drops across the board for holdovers and room for expanding awards hopefuls. The big winner is The Disaster Artist, which had a strong launch last weekend on 19 screens and expanded to 840 this weekend with a $6 million-plus weekend coming. Lady Bird passes $20 million today. And I, Tonya launches with a likely $70k-ish per-screen on four.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

On one of the weeks that’s a Hollywood dead zone, no new wide releases. The story, aside from the ongoing deterioration of Justice League, is the small pictures, most of which have awards ambitions. A24’s The Disaster Artist leads the pack with $26,000 per screen on 19 in its debut. That’s about what Lady Bird started with, but on 19 screens instead of four. Impressive, though on a quicker burn. Searchlight’s The Shape of Water also debuts at roughly the same per-screen, but on two. Wonder Wheel is looking at a per-screen in the 20s in a five-screen debut. Three Billboards more than doubles its screen count, leaping to 1,430 screens, while Lady Bird expands to 1,194, with the films neck-and-neck for the weekend.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Coco reminds Pixar why they don’t open movies in November. Some of their great titles (like The Incredibles) and their weakest (The Good Dinosaur) opened in November to contextually uninspiring numbers. And now, Coco does better than Dinosaur, but not a lot better. It will be interesting to see the ethnic demos. Meanwhile, Justice League falls further behind Wonder Woman, though it is running apace with Captain America: The Winter Soldier and $250m domestic seems likely. Wonder is the surprise hit of the season (especially relative to cost). And in the battle for awards, Call Me By Your Name sets the per-screen opening record for the year with Three Billboards expanding strongly, a solid launch for Darkest Hour, and a disappointment for Denzel J. Amazing Performance, Esq.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Justice League has a better Friday/Thursday Night than Wonder Woman, but is estimated by some to open to less than Wonder Woman over the 3-day. Is WB convincing box office writers to underestimate the weekend now so that a still-soft $105 million opening for the film will seem like a win tomorrow? Probably. Meanwhile, Lionsgate is looking at its best non-Power Rangers opening in over a year, opening Wonder to $9.6 million on Friday with a good chance of gaining strength over the weekend with an appeal to younger audiences and women. Lady Bird expands nicely, as does Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

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Friday Box-Office Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

There are a lot of reasons why the Saw franchise didn’t resurrect itself this weekend. For one, its fanbase is out of college now, it’s been seven years since the last film, and maybe not quite ready for nostalgia. For another, the potential audience that might have been drawn in now may not be clear on what the marketing was selling, aside from cool, fast-cut shots of mayhem. Meanwhile, the other two releases (Thank You For Your Service, Suburbicon) felt – much as the films last week did – like their distributors were slow-playing them. One can’t tell from Los Angeles how U was selling their film to military families and the red states, but it didn’t connect there either. Suburbicon got slaughtered in Toronto and served up this weekend.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
The Meg 16.5 4118 NEW 16.5
Mission: Impossible - Fallout 5.3 3888 -46% 147.3
Slender Man 4.8 2358 NEW 4.8
Christopher Robin 3.6 3602 -62% 41.2
BlacKKKlansman 3.6 1512 NEW 3.6
The Spy Who Dumped Me 1.8 3111 -63% 19.8
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again 1.7 2812 -40% 99.7
The Equalizer 1.4 2373 -42% 85.4
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation 1.4 2589 -43% 143.2
Ant-Man and the Wasp 1.1 1863 -40% 200.6
Also Debuting
Dog Days 0.75 2442
Vishwaroopam 2 0.11 179
The Island 78,500 39
Srinivasa Kalyanam 46,300 127
Dakuaan da Munda 37,600 21
BuyBust 20,400 25
The Spy Gone North 9,600 2
Dans la brume 5,900 12
Madeline's Madeline 5,700 1
Skate Kitchen 5,100 1
A Prayer Before Dawn 4,500 13
Cielo 3,800 3
Larguees 2,400 11
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4