Friday Estimates

Friday Box Office Estimates

Star Wars: The Last Jedi becomes the second fastest release to pass $500 million domestic today, ahead of Jurassic World and showing no signs of negative drag, aside from not matching the phenomenal opening of The Force Awakens, the first Star Wars movie in a decade. Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle is living up to box office expectations, heading to over $175 million domestic through the holiday, making it the biggest non-F&F Dwayne Johnson movie ever. Things are less happy after these two, with Pitch Perfect 3, The Greatest Showman, Ferdinand, All The Money In The World, Darkest Hour, and Downsizing are all underperforming even modest hopes.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The arrival of five, count ’em, five wide releases looking to take advantage of the Christmas window with one more landing on Christmas Day means… well… there are two more wide releases than last year in this window, and in limited releases meant to go wide, one fewer than last year’s five. So as the marketplace shows that people are willing to go see movies they are interested in on virtually any date, the industry keeps packing them into the traditional windows. Theatrical isn’t in trouble… but myopia causes problems, even on the holiday weekend. It’s not that the market can’t expand to allow for multiple big hits. It’s that the messaging is getting so thin with so many titles in play at one time, it can’t get an attentive foothold to propel bigger numbers.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

In what should not be a shocker, Star Wars: Episode 8 The Next Of Many did not have the explosive launch that Star Wars: Episode Seven – The First In a Decade. Still, the best December opening ever – aside from the aforementioned last Star Wars Mainframe – and a 30%+ bump from Rogue One, aka, the first offshoot episode. We know that Empire did a third less than Star Wars, right? Let’s not be surprised and horrified if The Last Jedi grosses only $600 million domestic, making it the sixth biggest domestic grosser of all-time. Attempting to counterprogram, Fox released a Blue Sky animated movie that will skew young, Ferdinand, to a brutal level of disinterest. The irony of the two openers this weekend is, also, brutal.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

A second consecutive abandoned weekend by the majors. Broad Green tries to take advantage of the hole by quietly rolling out Just Getting Started as the only wide release, but can’t come close to numbers that majors saw as failing when they opened this date in years past (including last year’s Office Christmas Party, which opened to $16.9m). As a result, soft drops across the board for holdovers and room for expanding awards hopefuls. The big winner is The Disaster Artist, which had a strong launch last weekend on 19 screens and expanded to 840 this weekend with a $6 million-plus weekend coming. Lady Bird passes $20 million today. And I, Tonya launches with a likely $70k-ish per-screen on four.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

On one of the weeks that’s a Hollywood dead zone, no new wide releases. The story, aside from the ongoing deterioration of Justice League, is the small pictures, most of which have awards ambitions. A24’s The Disaster Artist leads the pack with $26,000 per screen on 19 in its debut. That’s about what Lady Bird started with, but on 19 screens instead of four. Impressive, though on a quicker burn. Searchlight’s The Shape of Water also debuts at roughly the same per-screen, but on two. Wonder Wheel is looking at a per-screen in the 20s in a five-screen debut. Three Billboards more than doubles its screen count, leaping to 1,430 screens, while Lady Bird expands to 1,194, with the films neck-and-neck for the weekend.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Coco reminds Pixar why they don’t open movies in November. Some of their great titles (like The Incredibles) and their weakest (The Good Dinosaur) opened in November to contextually uninspiring numbers. And now, Coco does better than Dinosaur, but not a lot better. It will be interesting to see the ethnic demos. Meanwhile, Justice League falls further behind Wonder Woman, though it is running apace with Captain America: The Winter Soldier and $250m domestic seems likely. Wonder is the surprise hit of the season (especially relative to cost). And in the battle for awards, Call Me By Your Name sets the per-screen opening record for the year with Three Billboards expanding strongly, a solid launch for Darkest Hour, and a disappointment for Denzel J. Amazing Performance, Esq.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Justice League has a better Friday/Thursday Night than Wonder Woman, but is estimated by some to open to less than Wonder Woman over the 3-day. Is WB convincing box office writers to underestimate the weekend now so that a still-soft $105 million opening for the film will seem like a win tomorrow? Probably. Meanwhile, Lionsgate is looking at its best non-Power Rangers opening in over a year, opening Wonder to $9.6 million on Friday with a good chance of gaining strength over the weekend with an appeal to younger audiences and women. Lady Bird expands nicely, as does Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

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Friday Box-Office Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

There are a lot of reasons why the Saw franchise didn’t resurrect itself this weekend. For one, its fanbase is out of college now, it’s been seven years since the last film, and maybe not quite ready for nostalgia. For another, the potential audience that might have been drawn in now may not be clear on what the marketing was selling, aside from cool, fast-cut shots of mayhem. Meanwhile, the other two releases (Thank You For Your Service, Suburbicon) felt – much as the films last week did – like their distributors were slow-playing them. One can’t tell from Los Angeles how U was selling their film to military families and the red states, but it didn’t connect there either. Suburbicon got slaughtered in Toronto and served up this weekend.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The only movie with a shot at $20 million is Boo 2! A Madea Halloween while four other wide releases crash and burn. All kinds of excuses are flying, but the basics are: the marketing didn’t inspire. Another classic… titles that don’t mean anything. If you asked someone who doesn’t watch trailers what Geostorm, Only The Brave, and The Snowman were about based on those titles, no one would come close. People do know what to expect from Madea, though it doesn’t look like this Halloween comedy will come close to matching the first Boo.The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Wonderstruck, and Jane will all open with over $10k per screen in exclusives.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Happy Death Day marks another big Blumhouse opener, their third original of 2017 (no sequels from Blum this year) to open over $25 million with Universal. Also landing better than expected, Jackie Chan’s The Foreigner. Open Road cautiously released Marshall into a real-life distracted marketplace to soft results, around $3250 per screen on 821. Blade Runner 2049 didn’t sink like a stone, but was not particularly buoyant either. And Annapurna launched Professor Marston & The Wonder Women to indifference, likely under $600 per screen.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

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Friday Estimates

American Made is a fine measure of where Tom Cruise is right now. He can still open movies, even though people love to talk about no one being able to open movies. But he can only do so much on his own. The weekend probably ends up around $17 million, which, given how soft the sell on the film was, shouldn’t disappoint. It will be headlined as though it is. Flatliners is a head-scratcher. The cast is good… but nostalgia for that movie has a lot to do with the stars of the original who were all on the cusp of exploding. Magnolia finds a nice audience for Harry Dean Stanton in Lucky on one screen while Searchlight can’t get the ball over the net with any velocity with Battle of the Sexes now that warm-ups are over.

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Friday Estimates

Kingsman 2 lands, delivering another strong opener in, most likely, the best September ever. Content, content, content. Also arriving, The Lego Ninjago Movie, a rare miss for WB these last few months, a signal that the Lego Movie Universe has a more narrow scope than the studio had hoped. Tough drops for American Assassin and mother!. Byron Allen’s Entertainment Studios has its first wide-release flop with Friend Request. And Stronger has a soft start on an odd screen count of 574 screens.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

It remains the story. It’s starring Michael Keaton? No, that’s on second. Does it star Jennifer Lawrence? No, that’s on third. It is on third? No, that’s on first. Let me get this clear. Reese Witherspoon is up for an Emmy… Yes. And she’s home? She’s going to The Shrine. Not home? Right. It’s not home. It’s on first. You muther… Second base!

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Friday Box Office Estimates

How ’bout It?

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The lame remains the same: Hitman’s Bodyguard and Annabelle top the charts for a second Friday.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 6.1 3849 -43% 262.2
The Post 5.9 2819 1083% 10.4
The Commuter 4.5 2892 NEW 4.5
Insidious: The Last Key 3.4 3150 -73% 39.6
Proud Mary 3.1 2125 NEW 3.1
The Greatest Showman 3.1 2938 -26% 85.8
Star Wars: The Last Jedi 2.7 3090 -59% 582.9
Paddington 2 2.4 3702 NEW 2.4
Pitch Perfect 3 1.4 2505 -57% 90.4
Darkest Hour 1.2 1693 -32% 32.4
Also Debuting
Thaanaa Serndha Kootam 91,650 89
Agnyaathavaasi - Prince in Exile 89,100 353
Condorito 52,600 153
Jai Simha 34,900 78
Ang Panday 27,600 43
Mukabaaz 13,300 17
Sketch 9,900 55
Ang Larawan 8,700 14
Parchi 6,350 35
The Insult 5,700 3
Acts of Violence 3,400 12
Lover for a Day 2,900 1
Saturday Church 2,300 2
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4