Friday Estimates

Friday Box Office Estimates

Three disappointing launches this weekend. Disney has it’s softest non-animal opening in almost 2 years, reminding us both why they need a different marketing team if they are going to add Fox product to their line-up. Very few teams re built to hit to more than one spot at the very highest level. Meanwhile, Fox fails utterly to open The Darkest Minds. And Lionsgate has a comedy that stumbles into the market, about 60% behind its similar male take, The Bodyguard’s Hitman.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Mission: Impossible – Fallout lands with its best opening of the franchise, though M:I2 opened on a Wednesday and if you count Thursday and Friday together, the number is slightly better. But M:IF only had Thursday from 7p on to accrue $s in our new Friday box office count methodology. Teen Titans Go To The Movies wilts on opening, though Saturday should improve the weekend to the mid-high teens. MM2 and TE2 both have soft holds, though those too should improve to the high 50s by the end of the weekend.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Mamma Mia!: Here We Go Again will out-open the original by a good amount while The Equalizer: Here We Kill Agian will come up a smidgen short of the launch of the first film. McQueen and Blindspotting will both top $10k per screen in exclusive launches.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Dracula bites The Rock as the third animated take on classic monsters by Genndy Tartakovsky continues to build on the previous films, opening $3.2 million better on opening day than Hotel Transylvania 2. Skyscraper opens behind what was considered a soft launch for Dwayne Johnson’s Rampage last April. And the rest of the returning Top 10 titles (save a solid expansion for Sorry To Bother You) had a tough Friday, with 50%+ drops across the board. In limited, a strong launch for Eighth Grade and a reasonable start for Don’t Worry He Won’t Get Far On Foot.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Sicario: Day of the Soldado and Uncle Drew arrive, each floating around the $20 million mark for the weekend. If they can triple that, both will be legit successes. Anything more will be gravy. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom falls as expected, Friday-to-Friday. Leave No Trace and Three Identical Strangers open per-screen strong.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom breaks the all-time record for most $125 million openings in the first 7 months of the year, a success which is reasonably followed by the question of whether there will be any more such openings this year. The record is 6 in one year – 2016 – which included an August and a December release. Meanwhile, the mid-week July 4 holiday is not a friend to JW2… because there is no 3-day or 4-day weekend and the holiday bump (last seen in 2012) is minor at best. It doesn’t hurt, but it doesn’t help much. Strong Friday-to-Friday hold for Incredibles 2 after its massive open last weekend. The King joins Won’t You Be My Neighbor in the 10K per-screeen doc club.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Incredibles 2*|71.4|4410|NEW|71.4 Ocean’s 8|5.9|4145|-62%|65.5 Tag|5.4|3382|NEW|5.4 Solo: A Star Wars Story|2.3|3182|-44%|186.1 Deadpool 2|2.3|3212|-40%|288.2 Hereditary|2.2|2998|-57%|22.3 Superfly|1.8|2220|NEW|4 Avengers: Infinity War|1.4|2164|-24%|660.3 Adrift|0.65|1929|-57%|25.4 Gotti|0.6|503|NEW|0.6 |||| * includes previews|||| |||| |||| Also Debuting|||| Race 3|0.59|313|| Sammohanam|0.1|121|| Naa Nuvve|15,100|118|| Eating Animals|12,200|2|| 7 Din Mohabbat In|8,900|31|| Outez-moi d’un doute|2,900|11|| Five Seasons: Gardens of Piet Oudolf|2,200|4|| The Yellow Birds|2,000|14|| The Year of Spectacular Men|1,800|11||…

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Friday Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Solo‘s second weekend is not shocking. But the rest of the media will tell you it is, because they will ride the negativity as long as they can. (Guess: two more weeks). A 77% first-Friday-to-second-Friday drop isn’t the best, but 70% is to be expected (remember, totals now include Thursday night) and 77% is not horrible. But the endless attack on Solo‘s box office absolutely creates damage. And that damage doesn’t accrue to the benefit of any other film… it just tears down Solo. Speaking to a friend who covers Europe, it seems Disney cut back on Solo screens going into the opening… so the blame doesn’t just land with a thoughtless media or a production that never overcame the firing of popular, cutting-edge directors. By far, the most shocking opening of the season is Action Point, which Paramount wanted to get off of its books like a rash. Johnny Knoxville hasn’t opened a stunt-oriented movie at Paramount to less than $29 million in the past (as recently as 2013) and this film won’t likely get to $2.9 million. If no one gets fired next week, you will know that this was intentional.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Avengers gets the third weekend with an easy win, as Disney plotted when moving the film back into April to launch the summer a week early. And next week, they will have a Star Wars at #1 and Avengers at #2. It’s good to be the Mouse. Double counterprogramming keep two films from launching to $20m+, but solid sturdy launches that could lead to decent totals if word of mouth is solid for both or either of the films. On the indie side, $10k+ weekend launches for Sony Classics’ The Seagull, Roadside’s Beast, and Magnolia’s Boom For Real.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

When Disney gave themselves an extra week of space at the box office by pushing into an April release for Avengers: Infinity War, no one else moved a muscle. As a result, there are just three counterprogrammers opening wide this weekend, the best performing of which is Pantelion and Lionsgate’s Overboard remake, aimed at the Spanish-speaking market. This will be Eugenio Derbez’s strongest U.S. launch as a brand so far, even if the number looks small. Focus is opening Tully on more than double the screens that Young Adult launched, with about the same result. Electric’s Bad Samaritan is looking like an overreach on 2,007 screens. And the doc RBG will crack $10k per screen on 34 for Magnolia, while it could have probably been stronger at another moment… but hard to say when… hard to plan in the fury of the political climate.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Avengers lands. Disney slots it just ahead of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, well off of the opening of The Force Awakens. But why split ten-million-dollar hairs? And Disney gets a further burst out of Black Panther. A Quiet Place holds against the storm, closing in on $150 million domestic. On the exclusive front, Orthodox drama Disobedience draws a strong $40,000-plus per screen on five. Also likely cracking $10k is Claire Denis’ Let The Sunshine In.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Super Troopers 2 did what every sequel wants to do, opening higher than the original (albeit sixteen years later). It was also an unexpected slow-roll kind of modern sequel… it’s not on Netflix. Meanwhile, A Quiet Place continues to hold like a champ. I Feel Pretty isn’t… frustrating in many ways, but its pitch was as unsophisticated as Trainwreck‘s was surprising. And Bharat Ane Nenu cracks the Top 10 in a great weekend for the independent sector, a week ahead of the Avengers 3 tsunami.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

A perfectly solid Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson opening with Rampage… which apparently isn’t a good movie. But the story of the weekend is the hold for A Quiet Place under 30% for Opening Friday vs second Friday. Historically, there are more than 1,000 second weekend holds of 30% or less, but only 40 that don’t involve a holiday weekend on that second weekend and only 30 that aren’t animated. Truth or Dare is looking like the fifth biggest first film (not a sequel) of a Blumhouse movie. It’s not Split or Get Out, but a strong launch. Grace Jones and The Rider both look to be over $210k per-screen in exclusives.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

A Quiet Place (greenlit under the previous studio administration) makes more noise than tracking suggested… and don’t be surprised if it beats expectations this Friday opening, playing especially well with women while still playing great for men. It will be Paramount’s biggest opening since 2016’s Star Trek Beyond and the biggest non-franchise opening (though this story may well continue) since 2014’s Interstellar. A solid if unremarkable opening for Blockers, which could be leggy once word-of-mouth clarifies the film’s tone for a wider audience. Lean on Pete should have an over-$10k per-screen while You Were Never Really Here delivers a ball peen hammer to the exclusive competition on three screens that will do nearly $60k per.

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Friday Box-Office Estimates

Ready Player 15.2 Million.”

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Pacific Rim Uprising will land in first place, but only because of timing, off 25% from the original. Black Panther falls to #2 while passing The Last Jedi and Avengers domestically. Tough weekend. Sherlock Gnomes was left on the lawn… no one saw the dog. Soderbergh’s iPhone epic, Unsane, has the double-trouble of a still-unsettled marketing formula and Claire Foy as another Netflix star who can’t draw American audiences to a theater. (Universal would have opened this, regardless.) Wes Anderson arrives on 27 screens to about $60k per, which marks the first time a Wes has opened on more than five screens since Bottle Rocket and suggests a frustrated distributor.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Crazy Rich Asians 7.2 3384 NEW 16
The Meg 5.8 4118 -64% 68.4
Mile 22 5.2 3520 NEW 5.2
Alpha 3.3 2719 NEW 3.3
Mission: Impossible - Fallout 3 3482 -44% 173.2
Christopher Robin 2.6 3602 -29% 60.6
BlacKKKlansman 2 1788 -45% 18
Slender Man 1.4 2358 -71% 17.2
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again 1 2270 -41% 108.8
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation 1 2187 -32% 151.2
Also Debuting
Geetha Govindam 0.27 181
Gold 0.13 194
Kolamavu Kokila 49,000 54
The Wife 32,900 4
Mr. & Mrs. 420 Returns 27,900 31
Satyameva Jayate 27,000 43
Les As de la jungle 21,800 37
We the Animals 20,300 3
Europe Raiders 19,800 37
Juliet, Naked 19,400 4
Blaze 8,900 2
Down a Dark Hall 3,450 14
Memoir of War 3,200 2
Puppet Master: The Littlest Reich 2,700 16
Minding the Gap 2,600 4
A Whale of a Tale 1,900 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4