Friday Estimates
Friday Estimates
Iron Man keeps a slight lead for Friday, but The Great Gatsby reminds us that the public is often more interested in what Baz Luhrmann is selling than what critics find to complain about in his films.
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Iron Man Three has had the #8 opening day in history. What that means for the weekend is anyone’s guess… literally a guess. The worst domestic total for a movie opening to a day over $65m was Twilight 2‘s $260m. The best, The Avengers‘s $623m. But what’s $360 million between friends?
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Evil Dead will be Sam Raimi’s second biggest opening ever as a producer… solid mid-20s launch for a horror film. The Jurassic Park 3D re-release launches a little behind Titanic 3D, but like the Cameron, the real money for this Spielberg film is overseas, where theatrical exhibition is significantly greater than it was when JP was first released. In limited release, both Trance and The Company You Keep will be in the $20k-30k per-screen range this weekend… signifying that no one knows how they will do when they go wider.
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G.I. Joe conquers the top spot with similar firepower to the first film. Tyler Perry has his second-best non-Madea opening. And The Host finds an audience about 1/6 the size of opening day for the first Twilight.
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The Croods, DreamWorks Animation’s first release under Fox, gets off to an okay start, just slightly above such animation releases as Fox’s Rio and just behind their own Megamind. Will this one find legs or will journos throw eggs? Olympus Has Fallen, in 2nd place, is easily FilmDistrict’s best opening ever. Admission didn’t get in. And Spring Breakers expands to 1,100 screens and gets almost the same per-screen results as The Master‘s expansion (though TM was on 350 fewer screens).
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Oz held pretty well, though hardly great or powerful. No matter how hard WB tried, audiences are rejecting the wizards of The Incredible Burt Wonderstone, coming in third behind Halle Berry as a 911 operator in The Call.
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It’s Oz by a country mile. With a likely strong Saturday bump for the family-oriented film, $80m and change seems a likely outcome. Third-best March opening in history. And still, the movie will look to international box office to see profit. Even if it gets to $250 million domestic (which is not assured), that will only cover marketing costs for Disney. The film will need about $550m worldwide + post-theatrical markets to meet profit. Reporting on Dead Man Down‘s opening is redundant with that title. Decent opening for Emperor and in-person appearances by Nick Offerman power Somebody Up There Like Me to a strong showing on a single Chicago screen.
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$14.1 million is a pretty good opening Friday. Unfortunately, it took three new films combined to hit that figure, led by Jack the Giant Writedown.
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Snitch won the Friday, but will lose the weekend war to Identity Thief. The other new wide release, Dark Skies, is okay for The Weinsteins… not very good in the real world.
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Four new releases… and only one satisfactory opening weekend, it seems. Die Five may win the weekend, but come up well short of reasonable expectations. Escape From Planet Earth will do okay by Weinstein Animation standards, but it will need some long legs to clear $50m domestic. Beautiful Creatures is a big-studio shot at the Twilight crowd that missed in spite of a ton of advertising. And Safe Haven, starring TV-level talent, will be Relativity’s #2 or #3 biggest opening ever.
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Universal’s “Giant Heads Of Comedy” ad campaign for the not-well-reviewed Identity Thief worked like gangbusters, likely heading to the biggest opening of 2013 so far. Also opening, Soderbergh’s last pre-retirement theatrical release, Side Effects to a touch over $7 million. And Top Gun IMAX has an icy launch.
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The top of the chart remains a horror show, this time with a comic edge. Warm Bodies, Hansel, Gretel, and Mama take the #2 and #4 spots, with the still-growing Silver Linings Playbook stepping up into the #3 slot. SLP also passes Zero Dark Thirty, both in daily gross and overall domestic gross. Meanwhile, Lincoln passes $170m today, Django Unchained $150m tomorrow, and Les Misérables $140m today.
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Newcomers Hansel & Gretel & corsets & crossbows will take the weekend… but without much force. Also opening to limp numbers, Parker and the movie famously forgotten by its own cast, Movie 43 In the battle of Oscar nominees, Silver Lining Playbookpasses Zero Dark Thirty for Friday while ZD30 has the domestic-gross edge. But the race is close enough that it could go either way. Django Unchained closes in on $145m while Les Misérables will pass $135m.
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Though some have wildly overestimated Zero Dark Thirty‘s Friday haul, it is still easily enough to take the #1 slot by over $2 million and looks to be close to $27 million for the weekend as it finally expands, an Oscar nomination for Best Picture in hand. A slight surprise—which we have seen happen before with this kind of film—is the Wayans-y A Haunted House coming in second on Friday ahead of WB’s more lavishly-sold Gangster Squad. By the end of the weekend, the two films may well flip slots, but both are likely to come up just short of $20 million. Django and Les Mis, both around $120m domestic cume, didn’t get any real Oscar nominations hit, both dropping in the 40s. Both Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook, which also added theaters, felt mood elevations on Friday.
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Texas Chainsaw Massacre 3D dismembers all this awards season seriousness and takes the top slot with a double-digit Friday. And Django Unchained stays strong while The Hobbit takes its biggest hit as it passes $250 million domestic. Les Miserables‘ revolution is losing steam, though it will hit $100m this weekend. And Lincoln breaks the $140m tape.
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The Hobbit continues its expected journey, passing the $200m domestic marker. And Django Unchained beats back the French for Liberté!
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The Hobbit‘s journey is, not unexpectedly, still on top. The new Cruise arrives with $5 million and if it grosses $15.5m, it will match the opening of 1992′s A Few Good Men. Happy anniversary! This is 40 and The Guilt Trip open to fairly intimate crowds.
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The Hobbit lands… and delivers the single biggest day in the history of film in the month of December, passing LOTR: Return Of The King by an estimated $2 million. That’s only the 58th best single day in history, but December box office is like no other month of the year. This includes a real question about whether this $36.5m opening will lead to a $100m weekend. It may. But in December, it may well not. After LOTR:ROTK broke the December record on opening day, it never saw a day over $27.5m again.
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It’s still vampires and secret agents and dead presidents, but this weekend, Bond leaps in front of Twilight and Lincoln gets $100m domestic in its sights (in the next week or so). The only newcomer is the Gerald Butler vehicle, Playing For Keeps, which seems to have crashed and left on the side of the road.
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Vampires and Spies and Bearded Presidents (again), Oh My!
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