Friday Estimates

Friday Box Office Estimates

A Quiet Place (greenlit under the previous studio administration) makes more noise than tracking suggested… and don’t be surprised if it beats expectations this Friday opening, playing especially well with women while still playing great for men. It will be Paramount’s biggest opening since 2016’s Star Trek Beyond and the biggest non-franchise opening (though this story may well continue) since 2014’s Interstellar. A solid if unremarkable opening for Blockers, which could be leggy once word-of-mouth clarifies the film’s tone for a wider audience. Lean on Pete should have an over-$10k per-screen while You Were Never Really Here delivers a ball peen hammer to the exclusive competition on three screens that will do nearly $60k per.

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Friday Box-Office Estimates

Ready Player 15.2 Million.”

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Pacific Rim Uprising will land in first place, but only because of timing, off 25% from the original. Black Panther falls to #2 while passing The Last Jedi and Avengers domestically. Tough weekend. Sherlock Gnomes was left on the lawn… no one saw the dog. Soderbergh’s iPhone epic, Unsane, has the double-trouble of a still-unsettled marketing formula and Claire Foy as another Netflix star who can’t draw American audiences to a theater. (Universal would have opened this, regardless.) Wes Anderson arrives on 27 screens to about $60k per, which marks the first time a Wes has opened on more than five screens since Bottle Rocket and suggests a frustrated distributor.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

WB’s Tomb Raider takes Friday from Black Panther, the first time it’s dropped to second in a month… but look for Panther to strike back over the weekend, in line with its weeks of over-performing on Saturdays. It could be close in Sunday estimates with both films near $26 million. But the surprise of the weekend is the big number for I Can Only Imagine, a religious family drama released by Roadside for Lionsgate for LD, another reminder of an under-served audience that is white and middle-class, likely grossing most of its dollars outside the major markets on just 1,629 screens. Love, Simon opens modestly, but not embarrassingly so, given the lack of movie star power.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Disney’s A Wrinkle In Time launches just ahead of Disney’s Black Panther, which will be the story over the weekend. Wrinklehas the upside of being a family movie, which should offer a Saturday bump, but Panther has had Saturday family bumps of 65% and 85%, which Wrinkle may not match. And then Sunday…

Also opening, Aviron’s second release, a picked-up sequel to a 2008 Rogue-Focus release, The Strangers… which will likely open to about half the original. And at the $3 million opening level, STX’s Gringo and Entertainment Studios’ The Hurricane Heist.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Get Out opened to $33 million Oscar weekend last year, and goes to the wire with a Best Picture nomination this Weekend. Red Sparrow, not so much. Jennifer Lawrence held the mantle of Biggest Star In The World for a moment, but an under-$20 million open for this film argues that she needs to make better non-franchise choices. Also not opening, Death Wish, which didn’t make an argument about why it was more than a day at the White House. Black Panther stays on the prowl, getting to $450 million domestic in 15 days and maintaining expectations of a $600 million-plus domestic total, which has only happened only five times in box office history.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Weak openings for Game Night and Annihilation are less interesting than the continuing story of Black Panther, which will pass $700 million worldwide this weekend. Only nine movies have ever cracked $1.3 billion and Black Panther is sure to be the tenth. It will likely fall behind The Avengers and be the all-time #2 Marvel movie. (But it probably won’t pass Furious 7 as the biggest non-summer/non-holiday grosser.) These landmark-porn details distract from its profound success: the only horse race between films is created by the media.

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Friday Box-Office Estimates

Roar.

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Friday Estimates

Wedding bonds, rabbit leaps, terror topped.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

One half-ass release, barely promoted or advertised. Holdovers defined by the two weekends since two wide releases for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day weekend with a single weak studio release each. Star Wars out of the Top 10 long before Jumanji. Some Oscar boost in expansions, though nothing blowing up. Super Bowl Sunday. Winter Olympics coming. Welcome to February.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Hollywood leaves the weekend to holdovers, with just the final Maze Runner opening wide. Hostiles expands and finds some buyers, but didn’t have the Oscar rocket fuel it had hoped for. The Shape of Water expands into the Top 10, joining The Post as the only Best Picture nominees in the 10.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

This is the weekend where Split opened to $40 million last year and xXx3 to $20 million. Nothing like that this year. Although a horror film, Split had a strong appeal to women. 12 Strong and Den of Thieves, no. The one female reach-out, Forever My Girl, looking like warmed-over Nicholas Sparks, is on only 1,115 screens and may be adversely affected by The Women’s March. These three new titles will not gross as much this weekend as the opening of Split last year. Oscar expansions should turn up in the Top 10 next week, following nominations. But there’s no big opener until February 9.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Jumanji continues as king of the jungle. The Post expands pretty much as expected. Liam Neeson and Jaume Collet-Serra team up again and do a little better than Run All Night, but not as well as Non-Stop. Proud Mary comes up short of tracking, but not as badly as it probably deserves. And Paddington 2 starts slow, but should pop up to #4 for the weekend as kids flood the room today and tomorrow.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The first weekend of 2018 is already stronger than the first weekend of 2017, led by a single newcomer, Insidious 4, whose Friday gross is about 2.5x last year’s first release, Underworld 5. Likewise, top holdover Jumanji 2 is about 25% stronger than last year’s Hidden Figures. And Star Wars: The Last Jedi is about 10% ahead of Rogue One, both on their 22nd day, as TLJ heads to something around $625 million domestic, aka #5 all-time domestic. Molly’s Game and Darkest Hour expand significantly while a few still-limited awards hopefuls expand incrementally.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Star Wars: The Last Jedi becomes the second fastest release to pass $500 million domestic today, ahead of Jurassic World and showing no signs of negative drag, aside from not matching the phenomenal opening of The Force Awakens, the first Star Wars movie in a decade. Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle is living up to box office expectations, heading to over $175 million domestic through the holiday, making it the biggest non-F&F Dwayne Johnson movie ever. Things are less happy after these two, with Pitch Perfect 3, The Greatest Showman, Ferdinand, All The Money In The World, Darkest Hour, and Downsizing are all underperforming even modest hopes.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The arrival of five, count ’em, five wide releases looking to take advantage of the Christmas window with one more landing on Christmas Day means… well… there are two more wide releases than last year in this window, and in limited releases meant to go wide, one fewer than last year’s five. So as the marketplace shows that people are willing to go see movies they are interested in on virtually any date, the industry keeps packing them into the traditional windows. Theatrical isn’t in trouble… but myopia causes problems, even on the holiday weekend. It’s not that the market can’t expand to allow for multiple big hits. It’s that the messaging is getting so thin with so many titles in play at one time, it can’t get an attentive foothold to propel bigger numbers.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

In what should not be a shocker, Star Wars: Episode 8 The Next Of Many did not have the explosive launch that Star Wars: Episode Seven – The First In a Decade. Still, the best December opening ever – aside from the aforementioned last Star Wars Mainframe – and a 30%+ bump from Rogue One, aka, the first offshoot episode. We know that Empire did a third less than Star Wars, right? Let’s not be surprised and horrified if The Last Jedi grosses only $600 million domestic, making it the sixth biggest domestic grosser of all-time. Attempting to counterprogram, Fox released a Blue Sky animated movie that will skew young, Ferdinand, to a brutal level of disinterest. The irony of the two openers this weekend is, also, brutal.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

A second consecutive abandoned weekend by the majors. Broad Green tries to take advantage of the hole by quietly rolling out Just Getting Started as the only wide release, but can’t come close to numbers that majors saw as failing when they opened this date in years past (including last year’s Office Christmas Party, which opened to $16.9m). As a result, soft drops across the board for holdovers and room for expanding awards hopefuls. The big winner is The Disaster Artist, which had a strong launch last weekend on 19 screens and expanded to 840 this weekend with a $6 million-plus weekend coming. Lady Bird passes $20 million today. And I, Tonya launches with a likely $70k-ish per-screen on four.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Super Troopers 2 7.9 2038 NEW 7.9
A Quiet Place 6.4 3808 39% 117
I Feel Pretty 6.1 3440 NEW 6.1
Rampage 5 4115 46% 50.6
Truth or Dare 2.5 3068 70% 25
Blockers 2.1 3134 36% 43.4
Ready Player One 1.9 3208 36% 121
Bharat Ane Nenu 1.5 323 NEW 1.5
Traffik 1.4 1046 NEW 1.4
Black Panther 1.2 1930 16% 678
Also Debuting
Little Pink House 10,300 8
Beyond the Clounds 8,800 41
Khido Khundi 8,500 33
Dude's Manual 7,400 14
Ghost Stories 5,300 1
Godard Mon Amour 4,100 4
L'Apparition 3,900 6
The Devil and Father Amorth 3,300 3
Eye on Juliet 2,300 9
Le Corbeau (reissue) 2,200 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4