MCN Blogs

Friday Estimates: Meg Eats, Slender Man Thin, BlacKKKlansman Burns Gently

The Meg will likely be the biggest opener of the summer for Warner Bros, with a number in the low 40s. The most striking thing about this is that WB put out such an unambitious summer slate by their historic standards. They should have a much better fall/holiday run. But even looking at next summer,…

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Weekend Estimates: Oh Pooh! The Audience That Dumped Them

For those who wrote (snicker, snicker) about how the “Wonder Woman weekend” was a lost opportunity earlier this summer, we present The First Weekend Of August. home of 2016’s $134 million opening of Suicide Squad. This first weekend in August, the Top 17 movies grossed $134 million. Reality is not complex on this issue. There…

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Friday Estimates: Disney Can’t Quite Open Non-Superhero Pooh, Lionsgate Dumps Spy By Mistake, Fox Goes Dark

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Weekend Estimates: Mission Succeeds But Doesn’t Blow Up, Titans Go Boom Boom

A solid Mission: Impossible opening for Mission: Impossible. You can’t complain about it. It’s the best in the series. But you can’t crow about it either. It’s the #7 opening of the summer (if you include Avengers, which I do). It will gross between $195m and $210 million domestic and between $375m and $500 million…

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Friday Estimates: Mission Teen (Not So) Impossible Go

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Weekend Estimates: Mamma, You’ve Been Equalized!

Okay… I had fun with the title of this, but if there is anything I can emphasize first about box office, it is that there was no race this weekend between The Equalizer 2 and Mamma Mia!: Here We Go Again. Both movies opened. Both had wildly different constituencies. They took different directions over the…

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Friday Estimates: Mamma Equalized 2

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Weekend Estimates: Johnson Haze

Hotel Transylvania 3 started Friday stronger than its predecessors, but is estimated to end up between 1 & 2 for a completely expected launch. Dwayne Johnson, however, was rocked, not only missing the top slot with Skyscraper, but falling to #3 in estimates for the weekend. Eighth Grade and He Won’t Get Far On Foot…

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Friday Estimates: Blob Beats Rock

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BYOB

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Weekend Estimates by JW2,2

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Friday Estimates

Sicario grossed $47 million domestic, $38 million international. This start for Sicario: Day of the Soldado suggests that its sequel will be over $100 million worldwide, so… a win. Uncle Drew is a cheap movie and will be over $15m this weekend. It is not the launch Lionsgate was hoping for with its very aggressive…

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Weekend Estimates by Goldblum Cameo

So Jurassic World: Lost Kingdom is the latest example of why making weekend projection based on Friday numbers (especially on Friday afternoon) is dumb. Projectors were off by more than 10%. Could have gone the other way. Whether JW2 opened to $150 million or not will only really matter in the history books and when…

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Friday Estimates Analyzed by Dino David

Never know when it will be the last one… And not very interesting. Just another weekend of massive success. The 4th $125m+ opening in 8 weeks of a one-week extended summer season. Hasn’t happened before. Best before was Captain America: Civil Wars, Finding Dory, and Suicide Squad over the entire summer. I don’t actually foresee…

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Weekend Estimates by Mr. Credible

Fourth time there have been 3 $150 million openings in a year. (150 is the new 100.) About to be a record-breaking 4 $150m openings in a year… and all before July 1. I don’t actually expect a 5th, given the poor opening of Solo and the lack of a Star Wars film over Christmas….

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Friday Estimates

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Hot Button Rules of Thumb (first published in 2006)

Top 10 Hot Button Rules of Thumb I just ran into this list, posted somewhere 8 years ago. There is really only one specific change. In item #2, the DVD market has changed and international has become a much more significant force. I would still say that $150m domestic is still not a blockbuster, but…

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Top 10 News Stories – Hot Button, Dec 2017

Top Ten Movie News Stories of 1997 There was lots of movie news this year, but not much that will be remembered. Here are the 10, in inverse order, that I think will be. 10. Death — Death is always a major story. There were some big ones this year (in alphabetical order): Chris Farley,…

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My First Online Column. June 6, 1997

  Chapter One: The Truth“YOU WANT THE TRUTH?! YOU CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!” — Jack Nicholson, A Few Good Men So, you want to know how show business really works? OK. Let’s start at the beginning. Attributing the quotation above to Jack Nicholson is a little like crediting your 6-year-old nephew with coming up with…

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Weekend Estimates by Sex Flip Klady

Hard to really analyze the Ocean’s Eight opening. It feels… about right. It’s not explosive. It’s not a step backwards for a franchise idea. It will be profitable, but insignificant financially. The “empowered” movie of the summer still looks to be Crazy Rich Asians, which WB tagged to Ocean’s “prints.” If Sandra Bullock is as…

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Howard’s End, Hayley Atwell

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Hereditary, Alex Wolff

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Ray Donovan, Paula Malcomson

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The King, Eugene Jarecki

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“Ten years ago at Telluride, I said on a panel that theatrical distribution was dying. It seemed obvious to me. I was surprised how many in the audience violently objected: ‘People will always want to go to the movies!’ That’s true, but it’s also true that theatrical cinema as we once knew it has died. Theatrical cinema is now Event Cinema, just as theatrical plays and musical performances are Events. No one just goes to a movie. It’s a planned occasion. Four types of Event Cinema remain.
1. Spectacle (IMAX-style blockbusters)
2. Family (cartoon like features)
3. Horror (teen-driven), and
4. Film Club (formerly arthouse but now anything serious).

There are isolated pockets like black cinema, romcom, girl’s-night-out, seniors, teen gross-outs, but it’s primarily those four. Everything else is TV. Now I have to go back to episode five of ‘Looming Tower.'”
~ Paul Schrader

“Because of my relative candor on Twitter regarding why I quit my day job, my DMs have overflowed with similar stories from colleagues around the globe. These peeks behind the curtains of film festivals, venues, distributors and funding bodies weren’t pretty. Certain dismal patterns recurred (and resonated): Boards who don’t engage with or even understand their organization’s artistic mission and are insensitive to the diverse neighborhood in which their organization’s venue is located; incompetent founders and/or presidents who create only obstacles, never solutions; unduly empowered, Trumpian bean counters who chip away at the taste and experiences that make organizations’ cultural offerings special; expensive PR teams that don’t bring to the table a bare-minimum familiarity with the rich subcultural art form they’re half-heartedly peddling as “product”; nonprofit arts organizations for whom art now ranks as a distant-second goal behind profit.”
~ Eric Allen Hatch