Toronto
2006
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VanAirsdale
The Truth About
Toronto and Oscar...The stark reality of Toronto’s Oscar-making machinery this year, as most years, is that there will be a lot more films slaughtered by this year’s festival than helped. And the desperation of some media for a story doesn’t change that.
Please remember that at about this time last year, the Los Angeles Times’ alleged expert on the arena had Memoirs of a Geisha as a dead lock with Rob Marshall's Oscar on his mantle. This year’s dead-in-the-water Traditional Media tout is Bobby. At least Geisha got the craft noms it expected.
(Note also that the embargo break of the week came from Traditional Media's Miami Herald, as Rene Rodriguez cracked the seal on The Departed, all the while acknowledging that he wasn't supposed to do so. It's about time someone started compaining about those damned can't-wait-to-publish reckless newspapers!!!!)
Forrest Whitaker is getting great notices for The Last King of Scotland, but no, they are not anywhere near the raves for Heath Ledger (who was the lock to win at this point last year) and Phillip Seymour Hoffman (who took the lead with critics awards in December). That doesn't mean he won't get nominated, but media hysteria outstrips real hysteria in that case, amongst many.
The truth is, The Toronto Strategy is being reconsidered by the top minds on the industry side. Unless you have “The Movie,” which is to say, the singular buzz movie of the fest (see: Sideways or the less awards successful Far from Heaven), your film may not be helped for award season at all by TIFF orgy week.
For instance, with all the Penelope Cruz hum, you could believe she is a mortal lock. But she is still clearly behind the un-TIFFed Streep, Dench, Mirren, Bening, and the one other TIFF arrival, Kate Winslet, who is an Academy favorite. It is not impossible for her to grab one of these slots, but there is a problematic instinct to make pronouncements in the middle of press-heavy moments like this that throw perspective to the wind.
With due respect to a lot of good movies, when you ask people what they’ve loved here, more often than not, you end up in a conversation about Borat. And while I believe that Sasha Baron Cohen can be and should be a serious Best Actor contender, it is certainly no Best Picture contender.
I love Volver, but the Cannes-premiered film most certainly did not explode at Toronto. The Almodovars were here, as was Penelope, and so was the press. Sony Classics did a good job of keeping things rolling. But everyone is always looking for an explosion. The problem with this kind of overly dramatic thinking is that after the explosion, there are still three full months of cleaning up debris before anyone starts voting on actual nominations.
The odd truth of Toronto this year is that the biggest movie star here, aside perhaps from Pitt & Damon, was Kevin Costner. And he wasn’t even here with a festival film. He came to junket, with Ashton Kutcher and Demi Moore (who pitched Bobby a week before it arrived), Disney’s late September release, The Guardian.
The American Beauty of it all is turning because nowadays, there are 10 such films looking for traction. And not all of them can get it. The tools of selling a movie – and in this conversation, an awards movie – are generally more sophisticated than this. Miramax did fine with Venus here, but they are still stronger with The Queen, which wasn’t here. The Weinsteins have lost control of the buzz on Bobby by playing here. Sony found a commercial hit (Stranger Than Fiction) and an awards miss (All The Kings Men) in a hurry, with Pursuit of Happyness still in their quiver. The two presumed big dogs of Oscar this year, Flags of Our Fathers and Dreamgirls, plus The Queen, The Good German, The Good Sheppard, Children of Men, The History Boys, Blood Diamond, Notes on a Scandal, and The Prestige are nowhere to be seen.
Chewing on just what is in front of us is convenient, but it is also lazy, stupid thinking. But perhaps thinking is no longer part of it... just jump on and ride like the wind... and let the reality come to pass when it chooses to... and then ride that.
