..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

19 Weeks To Go:
I'm David Poland... And I Approve This Oscar Race

Four years ago, it was one of our softest Oscar seasons.

Eight years ago, it was one of our best.

How much does the election matter?

2004 didn't seem terribly urgent, as the election went.  As much as people wanted Bush out in this town, by this time of year it already seemed pretty unlikely that John Kerry had it in him to overthrow the W. 

There was something rather retro about the season, with The Aviator, Ray, and Finding Neverland all set in the past; Million Dollar Baby feeling for all the world like a 50s period drama, and the only "current" movie was Sideways, which was, as most Payne/Taylor films are, kinda 70s. 

Left behind were Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind, Fahrenheit 9/11, The Sea Inside, The Motorcycle Diaries, Collateral, House Of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, and others… none very comfortable.

On the other hand, 2000 embraced Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Traffic, Erin Brockovich, and the more conventional Gladiator (and Chocolat…. oy).  These were small, muscular movies that pushed the envelope on production. 

Of course, Gladiator won.   Whether that was about it being The Epic or just because the small movies knocked each other out, we have no way of knowing for sure. 

This year, Australia, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millionaire all offer the possibility of a movie/movie epic to Academy voters.  Interestingly, all three filmmakers are capable of pushing the envelope, though we only really have a clear picture of Danny Boyle's work so far.  And all three, amazingly, also have that kind of period feel… two being in period and the in-India film feeling old-school - in spite of being quick cut – down to the heat around the show who Wants to Be A Millionaire?.

And every other major contender right now is also period – Frost/Nixon, Doubt, Revolutionary Road, Milk, The Reader, and indeed, the old-white-guy race drama, Gran Torino.

Hmmmm…

Even the next group of films – aside from The Dark Knight – is periodist… The Visitor, Rachel Getting Married, Happy Go Lucky, and The Wrestler are all very 70s… Che is set in the 60s and 70s and Defiance is set in WWII. 

How will all of these films find a way to differentiate?  This is the advantage of the bigger movies.  No film will have the landscape of Australia.  No film will have the time lapse of Ben Button.  No film will have the exotic joy and amazing familiarity of Slumdog. 

Are Frost/Nixon and Milk walking in the same footsteps?

Will we see a radical right-wing season loaded with Meryl Streep in a habit and Clint Eastwood with a sawed-off shotgun?

Who will come out of the four-way intimate drama cage match of Rev Road, Rachel, Wrestler, and Visitor? 

What intrigues me about this is that some of these films can't help but to go away… but one in each category is likely to find its way into the top group of films, five of which will be nominated for Best Picture.  And if you are in the fight, you have a shot.  The Visitor can be the longest of shots, but so long as it is discussed in the same breath as the once-a-lock Revolutionary Road, the only thing it needsto pull the upset is to be, in the eyes of Academy voters, better.

Now… wearing just my poli-sci hat, here are some ideas:

If Obama wins, the darker films become harder to sell.

If Obama loses, the darker films become easier to sell. 

If California's Prop 8 passes (eliminating gay marriage), Milk becomes very hot in a hurry because it is about a gay political martyr (of sorts), along with Doubt, which is about raging zealotry.

Hard to figure in this is a film like Frost/Nixon, which will be entertaining and interesting, but is not an anti-Nixon polemic.  Good or bad? 

Does Rachel Getting Married become a celebration of racial harmony or a “been there, done that” leftover?

Is a campaign for “Randy The Wrestler” too ironic… too late after McCain loses… too raw an idea if McCain upsets?

Will anyone want to think about war crimes or Jews in the woods if Obama wins and we are looking forward into a hopefully brighter future?

We'll see.  But it does seem to me, on an instinctual level, that we are already down to a race between the movie/movies… and the difference could be how much pushback each film gets aside from those who love them… unless McCain wins… and then, the mood could change… in a hurry.

This Week's Charts
Best Picture | Director
Best Actor/Supporting Actor | Best Actress/Supporting Actress
Best Original/Adapted Screenply

Past Columns
October 16, 2008
September 25, 2008
July 31, 2008

2008 Oscars | 2007 Oscars | 2006 Oscars | 2005 Oscars

- Email David Poland