..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

20 Weeks To Go:
VOTE FOR... Oh, Wait A Minute...

It’s a very odd time to be talking Oscar.

We’re 19 days away from the Presidential election, but 20 weeks from the Academy Awards.  And the studios know it. 

It’s been over a month since Toronto and two weeks since my last set of charts and in that time… very little has changed.  Of the ten or so films legitimately in the Best Picture race, only Slumdog Millionaire and The Dark Knight are actually available for viewing by most voters and/or journalists. 

The films will start landing in earnest in about two weeks, and between October 28 and November 21, most of the answers of what the season will really be will be answered. 

But until then, the dance of Oscar is complicated by two major elements.  First, the election is definitely making people nervous.  They don’t want to become part of that wave of the conversation and they don’t want their talent to get sucked into that conversation, in great part because in the end they will not be releasing the movies during the election cycle. 

Second, the season is filled with movies that are not really built to be leggy.  Political, epic, and serious, these are films that could outstay their welcome.   It is all too easy to forget that in the end, it is about the movie.  But how you place that movie can make a difference. 

None of the films amongst the likely pool of BP nominees is in danger of being ignored by Academy voters. They all have enough bait to get the eyeballs, whether it’s the familiar director or the major stars or the weight of the subject.  So they can afford to slide into the late part of the pre-critics group season.

Ironically, the only one in the group that doesn’t carry that kind of built-in weight is Slumdog, which is also the movie that is likely to end the year as the most inherently entertaining.

It’s funny.  The awards season is a series of events as bait that get us from one period to another.  We are still waiting to get excited about the movies themselves.  Then there is the first couple of weeks in December, during which the vast majority of the critics groups set their nominations… and if you don’t get nominated, you can’t win.  The Academy nominations close soon after New Years.  Then the nominations come out.  Then there is the run from nomination to the actual awards.  And every time it seems like there is nothing of interest left to examine, a new phase in the process arrives.

The problem is when we try to leap ahead of any section of the process, as each result informs the next.  Every now and again there is a Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, where we know where the whole thing is going.  But mostly, it is a cipher that shows itself slowly to those staying focused.

For instance, there is clearly an opportunity for Kristin Scott Thomas to grab some critics awards for her performance.  But one screening of Benjamin Button or The Reader or Doubt could put an overwhelming roadblock in her way.  At that point, how do Academy members become familiar with her and her performance, given that she’s on Broadway doing Chekhov right now? 

And how do we judge how intense the love for Slumdog will be this year?  Will LAFCA go for Frieda Pinto, suddenly throwing her into the race?  Or will they get behind Hiam Abbass, who is another underdog?  Or will they be unable to resist having Debra Winger at the table at the awards ceremony?

It’s a funny thing, balancing the rational reality that the awards season is not really all about what’s “best,” but is really about a lot of process… and then about what some very specific groups think is “best.”  We all want it to be about love and, damn it, a lot of time it’s really about getting that green card so you can keep working the season.

It will be easier once we get to really chew on the movies… the movies that we won’t be spitting out. 

I can’t wait.

This Week's Charts
Best Picture | Director
Best Actor/Supporting Actor | Best Actress/Supporting Actress
Best Original/Adapted Screenply

Past Columns
September 25, 2008
July 31, 2008

2008 Oscars | 2007 Oscars | 2006 Oscars | 2005 Oscars

- Email David Poland