PictureX Director
xx...Actor/Supporting Actor XActress/Supporting Actress
xScreenplay/Adapted Screenplay

BEST PICTURE
	Picture	Studio	Director	Stars	Comment
The Frontrunners (in alphabetical order)
Dec 19	The Curious Case of Benjamin Button	Par	Fincher	Pitt	Long & gauzy, but one of the great young filmmakers in the world with a classic tale... could be a better Gump or another Joe Black... or in between
Nov 19	Slumdog Millionaire	FxSch	Boyle		The feel good, underdog movie of the season. If anyone can get Academy members to see it, it's Searchlight... boding well in a narrow season
Dec 12	Doubt	Mir	Shanley	Streep PS Hoffman	A movie about the power of lies, whether true or not... a McCain upset pushes this one to the top of the pile... an Obama win and... we'll see
Dec 5	Frost/Nixon	U	Howard	Langella Sheen	Very solid piece, but how Nixon feels for audiences in the US may well depend on how they feel about the election results
Nov 26	Milk	Focus	Van Sant	Penn Brolin	People forget that when Van Sant works straight, he is a top mainstream filmmaker. Add that assuption of quality to a compelling story and a strong gay constituency in The Academy and it looks like a strong player.
Nov 14	Australia	Fox	Luhrmann	Kidman Jackman	Right there in the starting gate... Baz can deliver romance like no other... but will this be enough like "other" for Academy to embrace it?
Dec	Gran Torino	WB	Eastwood	Eastwood	Seems like a solid fit... we won't know until Clint tells us
Dec 26	Revolutionary Road	ParV	Mendes	Winslet DiCaprio	Personal dramas need to be more than very good to stick... but being apolitical may be a blessing this season
Summer	The Dark Knight	WB	Nolan	Ledger	The mega-money movie that Academy leadership would love to see as ratings bait (however flawed that thinking) and which older Academy are lukewarm about
Oct 17	W.	LGF	Stone	Brolin Burstyn	Not a lot of "experts" see this one as a serious player... but all it has to be is brilliant and it moves to the top of the charts. And why asume that Stone isn't up to it? If he pulls it off, the rarest of successes... a real-time political biopic.
And The Films O' Potential
Spring	The Visitor	Ov	McCarthy	Jenkins	Really well loved by older viewers... but can a new distribution company fight the fight?
Oct 3	Rachel Getting Married	SPC	Demme	Hathaway Winger DeWitt	A wonderful Altmanesque film that challenges some audiences. A tough get in a season of quirky films.
Oct 10	Body of Lies	WB	Scott	DiCaprio Crowe	Looking d.o.a.
Oct 10	Happy Go Lucky	Mir	Leigh	Hawkins	Solid, sweet Mike Leigh... but probably not enough muscle for anything but an acting nod
Oct 24	Changeling	U	Eastwood	Jolie	I haven't personally seen it. Those who did, in Cannes, don't seem to feel it is an Oscar player, aside from acting.
Nov 11	The Road	TWC/ MGM	Hillcoat	Theron Mortensen	Dark, dark, dark... Hillcoat is a genius.. but can it click?
Nov 21	The Soloist	DW	Wright	Downey, Jr Foxx	My teeth are rotting just thinking about it.
Dec	Che	IFC	Soderbergh	Del Toro	Brilliant and truly epic... but can IFC afford to shove it into the race? Probably not. Would help to have a giant, one-of-a-kind event for the film in Los Angeles or NY.
Dec 12	Defiance	ParV	Zwick	Craig	Lots of movies "about something" this year. Between the classic Zwick 3rd Act Flop and a parade of depth, will this one stand out?
Dec 12	Seven Pounds	Sony	Muccino	Smith	Has potential as a major surprise. Smith was nominated for his last Muccino film and the power of hope might make a comeback.
Dec 19	The Wrestler	FxSch	Aronofsky	Rourke	Strong indie film... all about IFPs... not getting a BP nod should not be dissapointing... will be one of the best of the year in the end, no matter what the awards positioning.
?	The Reader	TWC	Daldry	Winslet Fiennes	The problem with Harvey Weinstein shoving this in is that it will be very hard to overcome the lack of support from Mrs. Mendes and a late start.

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September 25, 2008
- by David Poland

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