..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

22 Weeks To Go:
For Love Or Money

By this time in most past years, the awards season was well under way, at least inside The Geltway.  This year, not so much.

Why? 

2007 taught studios, in spite of a win by a November release that went the Aug/Sept.Oct festival route, that you can still open late and be in the Oscar game.  The only Best Picture film that was released prior to November 9 last year was Michael Clayton… starring George “Golden Boy” Clooney.

It’s not just that the sheep roam wherever the last success was.  Really, that’s not the case at all.  What the phenomenon speaks to is that it costs a ton to keep a film alive for months after a Sept/Oct release, even if you have had a success. 

The 2006 line-up of Best Picture nominees saw less than 18% of their domestic box office after nomination.  And that includes the one December release, Letters from Iwo Jima, which earned more than 80% of its $13.8 million gross after nomination.

Aside from The Dark Knight, the summer mega-hit, the earliest release on the first Gurus o’ Gold chart this year is Changeling, on October 24.  On top of that, the only Toronto International Film Festival film expected to be in play before the fest that came out of the fest in play was Jon Demme’s Rachel Getting Married.  As is often the case, two massive underdogs, The Wrestler and Slumdog Millionaire, emerged unexpectedly from the festival, both to be released by – who else? -  Fox Searchlight.

As things lay out, the only non-TIFF movies being released in October that are chasing seriously are Body of Lies, W., and Changeling, the last of which premiered in Cannes in May. 

Thing is, even when you get past the timing issues, this season seems heavily niche-oriented, even more than normal.  For instance, Frost/Nixon is a pretty straight, but inherently amusing look at how all politics is show biz, and right now, it’s getting a lot of love unseen.  W., on the other hand, is carrying some negative weight because of Oliver Stone’s recent history.  But sight unseen, only one seems likely to be in the race at the end… and if W. is a brilliant Terry Southern-esque satire, it leaps ahead.  And what of Che?

Slumdog Millionaire is the only serious underdog in the race.  Everyone who has seen it knows that it delivers.  And Searchlight will get it seen.  So, it has a huge advantage as this year’s little engine that should.

Which period epic will emerge, Paramount Vantage’s Revolutionary Road, Paramount’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button or Paramount Vantage’s Defiance?

How would you like to be a serious minded drama?  Revolutionary Road, Gran Torino, Changeling, The Wrestler, The Soloist, Doubt, and The Visitor are all chasing a certain constituency.

And how will being the only massive hit in play help The Dark Knight to a slot?

Will Milk be dragged into the political group with Nixon and Bush or will be it be a unique drama that illuminates the hypocrisies we still live with?  Or more to the point, is there another movie that targets a significant gay portion of the Academy, and if it is up to Van Sant’s best standards, can it help but become a nominee c/o that constituency?

Of course, the biggest problem for the whole shebang is that the political story of 2008 is much more interesting than anything that seems to be coming up at the movies.  I mean, a lot of good movies… but is there the truly great on the docket? 

I hope so. 

But this tone sets us for the pleasure of some real surprises.  I am absolutely looking forward to the films at the top of the leader board.  But the W.s and the Australias and the Seven Pounds and, of course, the Slumdog Millionaire, is where the fun seems to be this season.  Winning… strong… well acted and directed… all great.  But discovery is the great narcotic.  

I want to walk out of the theater after seeing Ben Button and say, “That movie HAS to be nominated or I will declare jihad!”  I really do want to.  Really, I want to feel that way about any movie… not just “that was really quite excellent,” but LOVE. 

Of course, Love would have little to do with whether The Reader leaps into the fray in December.  As always, there is one thing much stronger than love when we talk about awards season and no matter how well-intended and virginal filmmakers, critics, prognosticators and studios may wish to be, it is the root of this very expensive, beloved, personal art form. 

But Love feels so much better as a rationalization.

See you in a couple of weeks…

This Week's Charts
Best Picture | Director
Best Actor/Supporting Actor | Best Actress/Supporting Actress
Best Original/Adapted Screenply

Past Charts
7/31/08 - The Early Best Picture Chart

- Email David Poland