Gary Dretzka
Noah Forrest
Leonard Klady
David Poland
Douglas Pratt
Ray Pride

14 Weeks To Go
All Dressed Up And
No Way To Know

So all the horses are in the gate ...

Big dogs Sweeney Todd and Charlie Wilson's War landed this week to mixed results.  The Weinstein Co is still rolling out The Great Debaters in hopes that it can argue its way into the race.  And the entire parade of films that are in the chase and hoping to race are trying to figure out the angle that will make their dreams come true.

So what do we know now that we didn't know in October?

Nuthin'.

We still seek a real answer.  And it looks like Charlie Wilson's War will not be that answer, but it could be surprisingly commercial - if you trusted critics, the race would look quite different.  It looks like Sweeney Todd could be more commercial than some expected, but one has to wonder if all the bloody corpses will put the genteel Academy off.  The Bucket List turns out to be very entertaining ... but right down the center. 

"Experts" want to tell you that Hairspray and The Savages are dead ... but that Juno and There Will Be Blood are locked in.  Who knows?

DVDs are flying all over town.  Parties and screenings are fighting to find space.  The pre-Oscar awards are more muscular than usual because every positive bump helps.  And for the first time, we have a trade with a blogger blogging about bloggers blogging about bloggers.  Voila!

The answer, my friends, is blowin' in the wind ... though not to I'm Not There, which is still flailing about, looking for the traction it deserves while the Weinsteins look to Denzel not Dylan. 

The truth is, I don't even know what is going to lock things down for any of these titles this year ...   A Golden Globe nomination?  Hasn't meant anything in years.  LA Film Critics?  NY Film Critics?  Broadcast Film Critics?  Being left out hurts, but being left in doesn't set the paint, as is clear from the Gotham Awards and Indie Spirit nods.  

Box office?  Who is going to have box office going for them, really?  Michael Clayton and No Country For Old Men look to be in the $40 million range.  There are some commercial films coming that are Oscar hopefuls.  But will one of the arthouse flicks emerge because it actually does $20 million or more?

Will actors pull the wagon?  There is a very real chance that of 10 Best Actor nominees of the two sexes, just a couple will come from Best Picture films.  Of all the serious BP contenders, only Atonement, The Savages, and Sweeney Todd legitimately have a male and female lead to put into the race. 

The directors?  Yeah, let's all count the hours we will be spending with the Coens, Tim Burton, Sean Penn, Joe Wright, Denzel Washington, Ridley Scott, Mike Nichols, and Paul Thomas Anderson.  (To be fair, Tony Gilroy, Sidney Lumet, Jason Reitman, Tamara Jenkins, and Julian Schnabel have been working their asses off.)

The brilliant award marketing idea of 2007?  Not having a brilliant marketing idea.  Low key is key.  Never let 'em see you sweat ... or in some cases, your movie.

Or your column.

I am amazed that there is so little to say this year ... except to say, enjoy the movies, sit back, relax, and enjoy the scramble.

The Charts

November 15, 2007
November 8, 2007
November 1, 2007
October 25, 2007
October 18, 2007
The Post-Toronto Chart - September 21, 2007
The Pre-Toronto Chart - September 6, 2007
The First Chart - June 21, 2007

- Email David Poland