..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

35 Weeks To Go
Run Silent, Run Depp

"For what's the sound of the world out there?
Those crunching noises pervading the air!
It's man devouring man, my dear!
Then who are we to deny it in here?"

That's a lyric from Sweeney Todd, but actually another movie has been more quotable so far.  In Oscar pre-season 2007, no one can hear you scream.

You'll notice no one is pressing their Oscar luck as of the end of June ... not even DreamWorks Oscar powerhouse Terry Press.  It's no country for bold talk at 42 West, where Miramax and others get consultation.  Charlie Wilson may be going to war, but Tony Angellotti is keeping it in dry dock while QE2 & Ridley's Boys go at it.  Karen Fried has 3 or 4 films to Focus on, but she'll let Ang Lee translate himself before she starts doing it for us.  And Paramount Vantage isn't babbling in at all, even with four high profile films aiming at the gold ring.

Last year was the year of early hype Front Runner doing everything it was expected to do... except get nominated. So this year's trend will be Silence Is Golden... until that fails some film that seemed inevitable, so next year there will be some other trend.

Make no mistake, Oscar's elves are already well into their cobbling plans.  Those named above will be cranky about being named and those not named will be quietly cranky about not being named, as the game is already afoot. 

I have 39 films on my list right now.  At least a couple will not make release in 2007.  Another 20 really have no realistic shot at Best Picture ... though keep in mind that the list that came out five weeks earlier last year only had three of the five eventual nominees listed (Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen were not on the summer list).  Only ten of the films on the list have been seen by eyes outside of their production team. 

Phil Hoffman is in three possible contenders.  Javier Bardem is in two, as are Streep, Tommy Lee Jones, Vanessa Redgrave, and potentially, Benecio del Toro.  On the flip side, Paramount Vantage will chase a nom for The Kite Runner with no known American actors to push, not unlike a Pitt-less Babel. 

We already have a boatload of stunt performances, including Julie Christie (Alzheimer's), Marion Cotillard (old, stooped, crazy, and odd looking), John Travolta (drag), Samuel L. Jackson (old & nutty), John Cusack (nerdy), Halle Berry (acting), Javier Bardem (hairstyle), and Johnny Depp (singing). 

What we don't have is more than a couple of big movies.  Charlie Wilson's War is the senior title by way of its over-any-title talent roster, including its director.  Johnny Depp, the first Sondheim movie in decades, and Tim Burton make Sweeney Todd a big feeling film.  And the first film from the Cruise/Wagner United Artists, Lions For Lambs, has traditional Hollywood Oscar bait talent and exotic locations. 

There are no guarantees, including that trio.  But after them, you're looking at a parade of films with big ideas, big talent, and tiny scope.  Every expectation is based on directors and intentions.  Ang Lee, Terry George, Neil Jordan, Paul Haggis, David Cronenberg, Robert Benton, Noah Baumbach, Ridley Scott, Marc Forster, Woody Allen, Paul Thomas Anderson, Wes Anderson, the Coen Bros, Francis Ford Coppola, Joe Wright, and potentially Steven Soderbergh will all be in play this fall.  And who the hell knows? 

Interestingly, aside from animation, majors Disney and Fox really don't even have films in the Oscar game this year (though Miramax and Searchlight do), while Paramount sans DreamWorks has only the would-be-surprising potential of Beowulf in the Oscar race. And God Save The King... Harvey Weinstein appears to have nothing up his sleeve, unless I'm Not There or Control turn into something magical.

The acting races are still pretty wide open, though nominations seem inevitable for Marion Cotillard, Julie Christie, Cate Blanchett, Javier Bardem (supporting, for No Country for Old Men), and the one guy who I still think will win, even from this far out ... Johnny Depp: Aesthete Superstar.

And then there are the big freak movies.  Will Beowulf be the adult version of the 300 phenomenon and will Bob Zemeckis get rewarded for that?   Will Charlie Kaufman turn out to be as brilliant a director as he is a screenwriter with Synecdoche, New York ... and, if he is, can Sidney Kimmel do anything about it?  Is The Darjeeling Limited Fox Searchlight's secret weapon of 2007 or just a happy Wes Anderson comedy?  Will New Line find its new Lord of the Rings in His Dark Materials?  Can the French La Vie En Rose and/or Ang Lee's Mandarin-language Lust, Caution overcome the language barrier in the Best Picture race?  Will American Gangster be an Oscar movie or a commercial film with a Departed kick?

As you'll see on my Oscar chart, there's little point to trying to make much of the giant muck at this point.  Unlike years past, there is only one film that seems to be a lock ... and just a couple of years ago, the same fine director and the same Oscar winning actress didn't make the cut.  So ...

See you again just before Toronto.

The Chart

- Email David Poland