..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

Week Twelve - 52 Days to Go
Outside Looking In

Oh, that candy.

It's right there. You can see it. You know the flavor, even if it was only described some other time by someone you are close with. But whether you have tasted it before or just heard about it, you want that flavor in your mouth. You want the invite to the ultimate party… the nominees' luncheon, where without the hierarchy of Oscar night seating, all nominees are equal, everyone had a chance to win, and legends are all within arms reach.

But not everyone who is talked about this award season is going to have that afternoon in February.

Of course, last year at this time, the only clear lock to even be nominated for Best Picture was Brokeback Mountain. King Kong and Walk The Line were still in the Top Five of the Gurus o' Gold. Crash was thought dead by many.

And yet this year, since November, The Queen, The Departed, Dreamgirls have consistently been considered nominations locks, Dreamgirls obviously the only film not in release, but first screened on November 15. And of the field after that - Letters From Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, Babel, Little Children, and United 93 - only Iwo Jima is a late entry. Babel was the next latest in - Oct 27 - though it premiered at Cannes.

Besides Letters From Iwo Jima, the only film to get any traction late - and not enough - was The Pursuit of Happyness, which got smacked by too many critics. Then there are The Walking BP Dead - The Good German, The Good Shepherd, Children of Men, The Painted Veil, Apocalypto, Blood Diamond, Rocky Balboa, Venus, Notes on A Scandal, Pan's Labyrinth, Perfume, Factory Girl, Miss Potter, The Dead Girl - which some people want to say didn't get traction because they were too late… but in reality were just never in the game.

There are a few nominations in there. Actress and Supporting Actress for Notes on a Scandal… O'Toole in Venus… maybe a surprise screenplay nod for Pan's Labyrinth… maybe some other stuff. I'd love to see SAG embrace The Dead Girl, an acting extravaganza, even if Oscar won't.

But 19 days from now, there are going to be a lot of hopeful people on the outside looking in… and few of them with be truly surprised.

More than a few people have been vocal about how boring this awards season has already been. And there will be a few surprises before it's over. But it will still be pretty boring.

It's almost as though fate had leapt into the fray as businesses lined up to try and rape and pillage the Oscars on a level never seen before.

Interestingly, the BFCA, which has been live on the WB for the last two years, has taken a hit this year, as the Critics Choice Awards will happen next Friday, but won't appear on tape on E! until 8 days later, on January 20, five days after the Golden Globes and seven days after Oscar nominations close. This rather odd situation is, apparently, punishment by the cable network - which had subleased rights to the WB - for BFCA choosing not to renew their TV deal with them. Yet, the studio demand for seats - as well as the demand from media companies looking to have quick access to all of their potential customers in one fell swoop - has never been greater.

The oddly inverted punchline is that BFCA's Critics' Choice Awards will be scouted live by all the broadcast networks but NBC, and the group expects to make a long-term deal with a major network to compete even more aggressively with HFPA starting next year.

Turn, turn, turn.

And the same is true for non-nominees.

It would be a little heartbreaking to see little Abigail Breslin disappointed on the 23rd… but she has already won so big with her role in Little Miss Sunshine, how upset can she be?

If tough films Babel and United 93 are on the outside looking in, have they really lost? Will the films be any less important to those who love them so deeply?

Is Naomi Watts' performance in The Painted Veil less interesting if not nominated? Sacha Baron Cohen's? Mark Wahlberg's?

Does Todd Field really need Best Picture noms for his first two films to feel good about his work? Are Cuaron, Gonzalez Inarritu, and del Toro any less talented if the Wilshire 5800 don't say they are amongst the best 5 of 2006?

Really is anyone diminished by not being one of the five chosen in any given year? For that matter, does a nomination make a movie better?

Still… the candy…

The Charts
Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Screenplay
Best Director

Week Eight: The Season That Couldn't Shoot Straight
Week Six: Dreamgirls Wake
Week Five: Isn't It Romantic?
Week Four: The Rules - Episode One
Week Three: Channel #2
Week Two: Hope Floats
Week One: Ready, Steady ... Gold, Cat, Gold!
The August 11 Preview

- Email David Poland