..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

Week Four- 115 Days to Go
The Rules: Episode One

There are all kinds of rules that really do have significance in the Oscar season. None of them are made of stone.

Each of us must bring our own experience and circumstance to the table when navigating the waters. Salty old sailors die at sea sometimes, so they don't have all the answers. But give me experience over a "scientific" argument any day. Arrrrrr...

Well Liked Stars Change Everything
If you have the right combination of stars or star makes anything possible. This is one of those things that starts with the media and spreads like buttah.

For example, had the Media not obsessed on George Clooney all season last season and had George not made himself available for every damned thing, there is the real likelihood that Good Night, And Good Luck would have not been nominated and Clooney would not have a statue of his own. But he did and we did and he does.

On the flip side, Heath Ledger and Michelle Williams might be the most talented, kindest, realest people on earth... and their lack of accessibility made winning Oscars almost impossible last year. you don't have to be evil to lose (sometimes, evil even helps), but aloof is trouble.

Yes, The Media Can Matter
The media is mostly on tap to thin the herd, shine the brass, build the aura, and slaughter the innocent… uh… unworthy. But as much as we are in the spinning-our-wheels business, the ol' group effort does seem to have a real effect. Whether it's endless love or endless attacks, if something gets repeated enough times, it can find its way to being "true." However, the power only really works pre-nominations. Once the nominations are in, the power to narrow seems to go to Academy members who are finally able to figure out which five DVDs they are actually going to watch.

But watch out for the backlash when the Academy "doesn't listen."

On Brokeback Mountain last year, the loss to Crash ended up being blamed on one old comedian who said that he didn't want to see the movie because of its gay content. He became the poster boy for a "homophobic and narrow minded" Academy. And this minor moment evolved into the stupid idea that it was an Academy trend. No one who wanted to sell this line of crap bothered to acknowledge that anyone who was fearful of the film's content would be voting for it anyway... in part because people had convinced themselves that BBM had the power to make homophobes into men who love men who love men. Oy.

Of course, no one bothered to report how many people never watched Crash or the other competing titles for whatever reasons. Perspective was not part of the agenda. Making an excuse for being wrong was the goal.

On the other hand, the "Felicity Huffman can win" campaign caused no backlash when she took the inevitable loss, as media crawled back into their shells the next morning, embarrassed for having bought into it for a second and for ruining the evening for Ms. Huffman, an actress and person people genuinely like, by tricking her into believing too.

Appeal To Their Vanity
Academy members love to think they are thinking for themselves. Renegades and tastemakers in a media world turned upside down. As Fats Waller once wrote, "Find out what they like and how they like it and give it to 'em just that way."

Like any form of vanity, it can turn ugly in a minute. The trick is to let them know you love them… let them know you care… let them know how smart and powerful they are… but don't take that extra millimeter step into looking desperate or you're as good as dead.

Hide That Salami!
Foreplay is a lost art form in the modern age of Blackberries and Paris Hilton. But a few gentle touches and some anticipation can go a long way for an Oscar candidate… especially when everyone else is offering street corner lap dances and swearing to "love you long time."

Wining an Oscar is about being the one Academy members wake up with the next morning. And they will entertain all kinds of skanks for month after month. But come February, they know that the whole world is watching and they don't want any stains on their tuxedos. Even though they know what people will say if they bring "mother" as their date at the Kodak, they would rather have mom on their arm than Hootchie Mama 13.

The idea of a December release being a December release is gone. And even the true classic of waiting until Thanksgiving or later to show the movie for the first time seems to have died in Munich last year. That said, The Good German, Blood Diamond, Notes of a Scandal, and Dreamgirls are in an advantaged position right now, as they have barely been seen at all. (This will change in the next 2 weeks.) Interestingly, the Weinstein Company is still working on Factory Girl and won't expose it until late… probably the last film shot down the line. But with Best Actress their one real hope for that, the blast is going to have to be overwhelming, given that they are aiming at the toughest category of 2006/07.

Breathe
Of all the Oscar consultants/brains in jars, Michelle Robertson is the most zen. No one else breathes as deeply as she. That's not to say it always works or that Mr. Angellotti's (I think I spelled that right) rabid dog style - always done with style, cool, and a sledgehammer - doesn't have its charms. But the Tony A. thing is what people expect. It's what Mr. Weinstein and his crew did so well for so long. But Ms. Michelle… she just rolls. And when you just roll, you never overshoot the mark. You may not get there. But you don't take yourself out of the game by being too aggressive.

To say it's a marathon, not a sprint would not only be obnoxiously glib, but it would be misleading. It is both a marathon and a series of sprints. And the very best of the operators can shift between styles, not getting trapped into either one or the other. If the sprint isn't working and your film is worth fighting for, you can go for the marathon. And you can win that way.

And best of all, you don't die of a heart attack in the process.

Dollars Do Matter… Unless They Don't
The illusion that the box office is not a major influencer on the Academy is lovely and all… but it's bollocks. Like so many elements of The Race, it is about perception. If a film is seen as a loser, it is dead. If the final part of the awards juggernaut of Lord Of The Rings still was in the process of making over $150 million domestic, but seemed to be coming up short of the first two films, the boat would have been grounded, no matter how much momentum it had. "Something is wrong" is bad, bad hoodoo.

On the flip side, $15 million was enough pre-nomination for Capote to get nominated because it was such an underdog. The year of Fargo, Shine, and Secrets & Lies - all under $25 million - can happen again anytime.

The last example of a film overcoming box office expectations that I recall was Master & Commander, which seemed to be stalling back in its November release. But Fox kept pushing and got the film to $85 million before nominations, sold the idea that a boat movie was doing great at that number, and just kept pushing relentlessly.

For all the talk of Munich as a problem film last year, it got to over $35 million in the few weeks before nominations. In spite of a nomination, it only ever added $12 million to that number domestically. But going into nomination, regardless of a relentless group of attacking press members, it was doing well enough. Had the movie opened in early November, as Jarhead did, an even higher gross ($63m domestic) would not have been enough. Perception is reality. And not just media perception.

More Rules In The Weeks To Come...

The Charts
Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Screenplay
Best Director

Week Three: Channel #2
Week Two: Hope Floats
Week One: Ready, Steady ... Gold, Cat, Gold!
The August 11 Preview

- Email David Poland