..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

1 WEEK TO GO
Faster Oscarcat, Award, Award

Box Office Results - Last Weekend
11. Brokeback Mountain - $3.8 million
18. Capote - $1.4 million
20. Good Night, And Good Luck - $925,000
21. Munich - $821,000
- Crash - not in theaters

When the Academy shortened the awards season two years ago, they had the right idea. Besides the goal of marginalizing the Golden Globes, which they have (have you heard anyone talking about the Globes propelling anyone anywhere lately?), the simple idea that the season was going on way too long was dead on. And this year, with the Oscars pushed later by almost two weeks, the only real response has to be, "Can you make it much, much shorter next year?"

It's funny. When yhe Academy first moved dates, there was scrambling and all kinds of worries about how Academy members would get to see all those movies in time to vote. But ironically, the Academy showed more adventurous thinking in the shorter schedule than ever before.

So what about February 18 next year?

It's in Sweeps Month. Nominations could be announced on January 23. And then, it's all over in time for President's Day weekend.

And really, simply from a marketing perspective, doesn't it make a lot more sense to create a compacted system? Aside from the Weinstein's use of the old schedule to launch their popular films late in January, none of the studios want to make a bet on an Oscar nomination to drive their product anymore. It's too big a risk. I can't even imagine that Focus (The Constant Gardener), New Line (A History Of Violence), Fox (The Family Stone) or Universal (Jarhead) would change their business-first strategy at this point in the game, even if at least two of the titles might have had more serious Oscar possibilities with a better awards-strategic release date. Would Universal have held Cinderella Man until Thanksgiving? Perhaps… but at least as much to shut Brian Grazer up as to take a shot at Oscar. (And I think they would have managed a nomination with a November release, even though I am not a big fan of the film).

Looking at the box office results this season, Capote took a little slap by waiting - and waiting made sense - until it got a Best Picture nod before going wide. Sony Classics almost quadrupled the screen count and they did ok - Capote will likely be the only film to add 50% of their pre-nom gross to their domestic total - but not well enough to keep the screens going, giving up about 25% of them the very next week. The movie is making nice money post-nomination, but the high intensity heat was already gone. A couple weeks earlier and all the year-end press might have carried them further.

It's even getting tougher to read the tea leaves on the Crash surge that intensified around the time of nominations. There is always a discussion about when Academy members vote. But three weeks after nominations, the fact that Brokeback is still in release, keeping it in the watercooler conversation, and that the media has, essentially, continued to cast their vote with that film, would be at the heart of any argument that the Crash wave is over. But then again, most of the voters probably filled out their ballots last week and where is the Academy Watercooler anyway?

A far more significant statistic working against Crash than all the "precursors" that went for Brokeback Mountain - since I do not believe that Academy members vote for a movie in the finals out of peer pressure - is that there hasn't been a Best Picture winner that was not at least in some level of re-release during the post-nomination period since Silence of the Lambs in 1991. "Awareness" has always been a key stat in any movie marketing. Crash probably isn't the "first response" even for a lot of people who like the movie best of the five nominees. No matter how you feel about the film, when you say "Oscar" right now, the first title to hit the lips is Brokeback Mountain.

Crash has made a valiant effort. But I'm not sure they can overcome the cultural wave of Brokeback Mountain while their movie has gone quiet aside from screeners and industry screenings... no matter how many interviews Matt Dillon does.

I think it is great that the Oscars wait until the new year to look at the past year. Every critics group really should. But once the voting starts, it should be a sprint, not a marathon.

Besides, I'd be able to go back to 15 Weeks to Oscar.

AND NOW…

IF I HAD A BALLOT

Best Picture
Munich - Universal

Best Director
Steven Spielberg - Munich

Best Actor
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk The Line

Best Actress
Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line

Best Supporting Actor
William Hurt - A History of Violence

Best Supporting Actress
The toughest choice of all categories… I'd really want to vote for Michelle Williams,whose work was spectacular here, but I would probably still vote for…
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener

Best Original Screenplay
Good Night. And, Good Luck - George Clooney, Grant Heslov

Best Adapted Screenplay
Munich - Tony Kushner, Eric Roth

Foreign Language Film
Paradise Now - Palestine

Documentary Feature
Street Fight

Animated Film
Howl's Moving Casle

Art Direction
Memoirs Of A Geisha

Cinematography
The New World

Costume Design
Memoirs Of A Geisha

Documentary Short Subject
The Mushroom Club

Film Editing
The Constant Gardener

Makeup
Star Wars: Episode Iii Revenge Of The Sith

Music (Score)
Munich

Music (Song)
"It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp" From Hustle & Flow

Short Film (Animated)
abstain for ignorance

Short Film (Live Action)
abstain for ignorance

Sound Editing
King Kong

Sound Mixing
Walk The Line

Visual Effects
King Kong

This Week's Oscar Chart

The Nominations Special
6 Weeks To Oscar
7 Weeks To Oscar
8 Weeks To Oscar
10 Weeks To Oscar
11 Weeks To Oscar
12 Weeks To Oscar
13 Weeks To Oscar
14 Weeks To Oscar
15 Weeks To Oscar
16 Weeks To Oscar
17 Weeks To Oscar
18 Weeks To Oscar
19 Weeks To Oscar
20 Weeks To Oscar
23 Weeks To Oscar
31 Weeks To Oscar
2004 Oscar Columns

- Email David Poland