..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

Nominations Morning
I Hear You Knocking...
But It's Time To Kick
The Door Down Or Just Shut Up

Well…

Here is another big advantage for Brokeback Mountain in the Best Picture race… it will be the highest grosser of all five BP nominees as of some time this week.

Time for Lions Gate to re-release Crash in earnest… for Universal to re-launch Munich… and for Capote and Good Night, And Good Luck to really appreciate being nominated.

Brokeback has to be the presumptive favorite, but I am still of the belief that a strong Phase II campaign for Munich can score the Pianist-style upset, though in Best Picture and Director and not in Best Actor (where it's not nominated). With Harvey Weinstein out of commission (outside of selling the false notion that Felicity Huffman has a shot against Reese Witherspoon), Tony Angellotti is the best positive/negative campaigner in the game and it's time for him to get up off the Cinderella Man canvas and to get behind Munich the way he should have two months ago. (Steven Spielberg, as I have written before, has to take a lot of blame for the strategic failure of the launch of the film.) Spielberg doesn't want to win with any negative push, but besides a lot of Academy voters who are not interested in voting for Brokeback, susceptible to a positive campaign, there are a lot of people who could be persuaded to go against Brokeback. I don't think that this kind of campaign is appropriate either. But I did not build this giant Oscar machine. I am only but a small, mirrored cog.

The truth is, within the NBC/Universal tent, winning for Brokeback isn't going to ring any big bells. Stacey Snider is under pressure, though last week's big rumor that she is heading to Paramount has been directly denied by her camp. But a win for Spielberg's masterpiece, against the odds, without the merger imperative to push it, would show everyone in town that the studio is ready to scrap for a win and not just buy pretty Variety covers. The opportunity to undo all the mistakes that were made back in December is here and if the studio steps up, redemption is a real possibility.

In the absence of a full-blown push by Universal, the strongest contender to upset Brokeback Mountain will be Crash. Lionsgate will NOT give up on this movie ever again. There was a brief moment of doubt in late December, but the studio's hopes were buoyed by a variety of guild nominations and you can be sure that Tom Ortenberg will pull out the stops for the next month, leaving no stone unturned in pursuit of the gold.

The great gets of the morning include Terrence Howard (kudos to Robin Jonas and Cynthia Swartz, who have been on T-Ho for Par Classics throughout the management shift), a double dip by John Williams, Capote scoring in all top categories possible except for the glaring exception of Clifton Collins, Jr in Supporting Actor, and Wally Pfister for cinematography on Batman Begins.

Memoirs of a Geisha managed to grab six Academy Awards nominations pretty much as expected… all tech categories… no Top 8… but a good day for a movie that died.

The big misses of the morning are Walk The Line, which scored only for the actors in the Top 8 and did nicely in techs with Editing, Costume, Sound Editing; Star Wars: Episode III, which will not compete with King Kong for one last crowning EFX Oscar; The Constant Gardener, which managed only Score and Editing in addition to Ms. Weisz and a happy screenplay grab; and of course, Cinderella Man, which added Editing and Make-Up to the World's Most Expensive Supporting Actor Campaign In Oscar History.

So it's time to take a big deep breath, clear our minds a bit, and get ready for a fight… which we all must acknowledge, might be (be em) moot.

Team Brokeback Focus is led by David Linde and Adriene Bowles. Michele Robertson will guide a win for Rachel Weisz and oversee the overall Focus push. The Dart Group has personally been brought on board by Ossana and McMurtry to manage the win for Brokeback's Screenplay. The BBM score can win because of the William's double nod, which should make it hard for either of his scores to win. And Picture and Director have their own momentum.

Munich is in-house, except for Angellotti, who has been with Universal for a long time. Crash is in-house, though The Dart Group's Cynthia Swartz has been pushing hard for the film since last summer. Capote uses Sony Classics' muscle, with their nearly in-house bi-coastal pairing of Donna Daniels to the east and Melody Korenbrot to the west. And Laura Kim gets to manage her and WIP's first Best Picture campaign for Good Night, And Good Luck… and no one can argue her effectiveness so far.

It may be a boring season. Or there could be some last minute fireworks. There is a reason why they run the race. Perspiration could overcome inspiration this time… but it's going to take a real heavy sweat.

January 19's Oscar Charts
Picture
Director
Actor/Supporting Actor
Actress/Supporting Actress
Original/Adapted Screenplay

7 Weeks To Oscar
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31 Weeks To Oscar

2004 Oscar Columns

- Email David Poland