..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

BEST PICTURE
Picture - Studio xxx	Key Awards	Comment
The Locked Trio
Sideways - Fox Searchlight (GG/C-M)	NY, LA HFPA BFCA	Searchlight takes the conservative approach and grabs a huge percentage of awards. Like Shakespeare in Love, The English Patient and Schindler's List, they will wait until being nominated to break the 1000 screen mark.
Million Dollar Baby - Warner Bros (GG/D)	HFPA BFCA	As more people see it, there are more people that don't like it. But those who are deeply effected seem to be more than keeping pace. The real battle here won't happen until thefield of five is set.
The Aviator - Miramax (GG/D)	HFPA BFCA	It's well liked enough... still settling in as people clamor to see it...
Really Fighting For The 4-5 Slots
Ray - Universal (GG/C-M)	HFPA BFCA	Sliding, but can easily slide back
Finding Neverland - Miramax (GG/D)	HFPA BFCA	Still underwhelming audiences, slowly becoming a per-screen disappointment
x
Fahrenheit 9/11		Mystery Votes... Who's Gonna Get The Mystery Vote?
Hotel Rwanda - MGM (GG/D)	HFPA BFCA	A slow build, but could replace either of the "less significant" dramas
The Phantom Of The Opera - Warner Bros (GG/C-M)	HFPA BFCA	Tony Scott ripped, Ken Turan raved... the "will my vote count?" issue is becoming a real problem without much box office opportunity to counter... could be dead by the end of weekend one.
Golden Globe/BFCA
Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind - Focus (GG/C-M)	HFPA BFCA	Needed the critics groups to be more generous
Kinsey - Fox Searchlight (GG/D)	HFPA BFCA	Probably past one more hard push...
Closer - Columbia (GG/D)	HFPA	Like an Oscar nod... but less sweet
The Incredibles - Disney (GG/C-M)	HFPA	A wonderful film deserves at least two Oscars... animation and score
Collateral - DreamWorks	BFCA	Probably too little too late... but could upset others by getting Mann And Foxx nominated
Still Oscar Longshots
The Motorcycle Diaries - Focus Features		It really should be in contention, but isn't
The Sea Inside - New Line		If somehow it could get Bardem nominated first and then have the Best Picture vote a few weeks later, after more people saw the film, it would have a shot... but that ain't how it goes
Other Possibles - By Studio
Disney
The Life Aquatic With Steve Zissou
DreamWorks
Shrek 2
Focus
The Door In The Floor
Fox Searchlight
I Heart Huckabee's
Lions Gate
Beyond The Sea
A Love Song For Bobby Long
Stage Beauty
MGM
De-Lovely
New Line
The Notebook
Vera Drake - New Line
Newmarket
The Passion Of The Christ
Paramount
Alfie
Lemony Snicket's A Series Of Unfortunate Events
The Manchurian Candidate
Team America: World Police
Sony
Spanglish
Spider-Man 2
Sony Pictures Classics
Being Julia
Bad Education
House Of Flying Daggers
ThinkFilm
The Assassination of Richard Nixon
Twentieth Century Fox
None
Universal
Bridget Jones: Edge Of Reason
In Good Company
Meet The Fockers - Universal
Warner Bros
Alexander
The Polar Express
Warner Indie
We Don't Live Here Anymore
A Very Long Engagement

20 Weeks To Oscar Charts
Picture|.|||.Director|x| |Screenplay/Adapted Screenplay
xActor/Supporting Actor ||.|Actress/Supporting Actress
x
Earlier Charts
December 16 , 2004 | December 2, 2004 | November 25, 2004 | November 18, 2004
November 11, 2004 | November 4, 2004 | October 28, 2004 | October 21, 2004
October 14, 2004 | September 22, 2004 | August 4, 2004

December 23 , 2004

- Email David Poland