..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Ray Pride
..Patricia Vidal

10 Weeks To Go
23 Days To The Close Of Nominations

Gee it got quiet.

Old habits are hard to break and this year's race, which is really unlike anything we've seen in recent history, is almost exactly like everything we've seen in recent history.

Everyone is conceding Miramax a nomination because year after year, they manage to get nominations - and even wins sometimes - for unworthy titles. The simple reality is that in a business of distance, where test screenings and tracking are more about self-preservation than they are tools to build the use of one's instinct around, Harvey Weinstein and his team get their hands right into the dirt, up to the elbows and beyond.

This year, the vulnerability in Miramax's underbelly is that they stuck to the Christmas release date, which may actually mean that they miss the party. None of us - including me - have the balls to come out and predict it happening. But the signs are not really good. On the MCN 100, Cold Mountain remains behind movies like Dirty Pretty Things and Whale Rider and well behind the other presumed Oscar contenders. Part of the MCN 100 "problem" is that many of the members voted early and did not change their votes later, after seeing Cold Mountain and Lord of The Rings (though Rings got a lot of the votes that were adjusted as the month progressed). Also, voters had only 3 Best Picture choices. However, as MCN compiles Top Ten lists, only 4 of the first 50 we've posted mention Cold Mountain.

The image that comes to mind is Harvey on a couch, with the Academy in his arms… "You're mouth says, 'No,' but your eyes say 'yes.'" There are many forms of seduction and Miramax is of the "keep feeding them drinks and slowly work your hands over their bodies until they aren't looking at the beast they are bedding but are just feeling the tingle" school. Some call that date rape. Others call it understanding the game and using the assets you have.

Warner Bros. has been unable, to date, to counter the box office disappointment and mixed reviews for The Last Samurai, although everyone I know who has seen the movie with an "Academy" audience can feel that the movie plays well in those rooms. Samurai has gotten, overall, a better reaction than Cold Mountain. But give Miramax a Samurai and the talk would not be about nomination lock, but about the real potential to upset Lord of the Rings.

I'm not trying to suggest that the WB awards team is failing… they are simply taking the high road that most studios take… let the movie tell the story… do publicity as Tom's schedule allows… get frustrated that no one else is anxious to book anyone else for much... hope the box office doesn't embarrass you. And Miramax just keeps laughing at the failed nobility. They know that the movie is only a part of the equation, just like screeners, just like movie stars, just like pedigree, etc, etc, etc. If they are lacking on one area, they will make the other area the key issue and sell it like there is no tomorrow.

Want to know the difference between Miramax and everyone else? This morning (12/26), Renee Zellweger was on The View. And while it is true that Sir Ian McKellan is doing Conan and Bill Macy is doing Leno tonight, both have their noses up against the awards glass and need to build profile to have a shot. Zellweger does not. But she's out working on the day after Christmas. (Actually, I think they may have pre-taped the show, but still, who got the booking when others did not?) Monday the 29th, Sir Ben Kinsley and new mother Jennifer Connelly are on The View. What does that tell you about how serious Terry Press & Co. are about keeping Sand & Fog's shot alive? (Or do you think that Sir Ben is easy to get to work the press?)

Connelly is also the only Oscar-push talent working Letterman… on January 6. Leno is live until New Year's Eve… and there is not a single Oscar-effort booking between now and then. Unless there are late bookings, that's it for the major late night talk show circuit until the last week before balloting closes.

Meanwhile, at New Line they have Peter Jackson and a parade of actors traveling the globe, but at this point, Los Angeles is the city being paid least attention. For all of the consultants on board, the bottom line is, they need the talent to work if they want to get the acting nominations that everyone feels they need to assure an Oscar Best Picture win. Yet, the only major event between now and the close of nominations, the BFCA Critics Choice Awards will find Jackson and most of his company in New York City, doing a private screening for Richard Pena. While it is honorable to live up to that obligation, made months ago, the bottom line is, the one major opportunity left to publicly showcase the charm and leadership that could make the difference in the nomination that they really want will be significantly less potent. And not just for Lord of the Rings, but for Sofia Coppola, who will be in New York working on a commercial instead of showing up to be honored, win or lose, by the BFCA.

I am a BFCA member, but that's not really the point. The BFCA will have voted before the show goes on and the awards will be given on their merits, as seen by the membership. This is not about the importance of the BFCA any more than The Golden Globes turnout is a reflection of importance of the Hollywood Foreign Press. The Globes have been - and the Critics Choice Awards this year will be - a place to be seen kissing babies and shaking hands, being charming and funny, being modest but deserving. If your talent doesn't want to be seen selling themselves - and God, is this the year of that - you need them to show up at the places where it's an honor just to be nominated, where they can pretend not to care but signal that they really appreciate the gesture.

The "grass roots" opportunity is almost over. Many will tell you that the vast majority of the Academy membership returns their ballots almost immediately. Will that change with the schedule shift of this year? Probably… but only a little. Ballots go out on Friday, January 2. So if you're not working the next week, you aren't working. Voters are seeing movies, whether on screen or on tape, and minds are being made up. Those lagging behind will leave some opportunity to turn heads in the two weeks after that, the only scheduled events being the BFCA Ten Best Fest, The Producers Guild Nominations, The Los Angeles Film Critics Association Winners Announcement and the BFCA Critics Choice Awards. On the 15th, just 2 days before Oscar balloting closes, SAG will announce its nominations, which are probably too late to do anything more than to be a predictive event, with less than 500 ballots still unsent that will be sent by then.

Once those Oscar nomination votes are in, nothing else matters.

There is not a lot about this awards season that doesn't feel like the same old, same old. But we're about to feel the real pinch. The end of the year hasn't moved. But everything else has. What no one can really predict is whether the movies will become more of a pure deciding factor in the nominating process this year or whether campaign ebb & flow will still rule the roost.

Pete Hammond has written that he doesn't see Lost In Translation as a lock for the finals. I don't recall seeing a movie that was this well received across the board that didn't make it. But he has a point. It is your classic Indie Spirit movie. It does skew younger than many movies. And Sofia and Bill pretty much refuse to work the film for awards while "I'll Show Up" Scarlet is at work in Italy. Can't Bill Murray at least do a damned Letterman spot? Something? His and Johnny Depp's are easily the performances of 2003 that will be best remembered for years to come. Everything screams nomination for this guy, but if he refuses to smile at the Academy, he is still in danger of blowing it. And if he fails to turn up after a nomination, he will hand the award to Sean Penn, who has lightened up and is doing some campaigning this year.

Where is Seabiscuit? Well, Chris Cooper won't work much, Spiderman has been working and is not a great talk show guest and Jeff Bridges is overexposed. What's left? A lot of ads.

Big Fish? Ewan McGregor has been limited. Albert Finney is a notorious non-worker in Oscar campaigns. And Tim Burton ends up in L.A. Weekly, but not on Leno. Go freakin' figure. Great movie… but it's real awards constituency, which is all the older guys who are seriously considering voting for Master & Commander now that Samurai has stiffed a bit, think it's a kids movie and think Burton is a freak, so they may well not ever see the movie.

And what about all the potential acting nominees in movies that won't be Best Picture contenders? Have you seen one TV appearance by Bill Nighy or Shohreh Aghdashloo or Holly Hunter? What happened to the Melissa Leo campaign? I'm glad she got a big job out of 21 Grams, but she is fading from the Oscar race in a weak category. Where's Marcia Gay Harden? Where's Evan Rachel Wood? Is Ludivine Sagnier working Peter Pan or Swimming Pool or anything?

Is Charlize Theron feeling so locked in that she doesn't have to work much until after she's nominated? And for that matter, are we all sick of seeing Naomi Watts taking every possible media opportunity on the planet yet? Can't they book Peter Sarsgaard somewhere? Is Djimon Housou, who I still feel should be in a tight race to win the Oscar for his turn in In America, even in the race anymore after disappearing for the last month?

A lot of what's being predicted will come to pass. But there will be some "sure bets" who miss out. For the most part, the groundwork for a nomination has to be laid out months in advance. But the truth is, one great spot on Letterman or Leno or The View or Conan or wherever could be the difference in the 50 votes that could be the difference between a nomination or no nomination. For someone who is as great on TV as a Bill Murray, a Letterman appearance would likely get picked up by E! and ET and Access and everyone else and could end up making a 200 - 300 vote difference, which is, you should note, around 5% of the voting group in a situation where you likely need about 13% to get nominated.

There is a reason why Harvey can get "The Girl" on the couch and ply her with drinks and feel her up a bit and maybe even go all the way… because he's trying to. There are going to be some really good looking candidates going home alone in a few weeks who missed their chances because they were trying to be cool. Return of the King is probably the one guy in the bar who really is "so money." The funny, odd shaped, nice guy who calls too often only gets to end up with Heather Graham in the movies. (And for that matter, Heather Graham is only the shy girl who likes swing dancing and has no interest in the Vince Vaughn character in the movies too.)

It all reminds me of a Playboy article about two women switching coasts (NY/LA) and seeing what "dating" was like on the other side of the country. The L.A. girl went to New York, got some action, but was pretty wary. The tough-minded "can't fool me" New Yorker was swept off her feet by some Eurotrash in a convertible in 10 minutes, thinking she was the first one he had hit on in the hour, and ended up bouncing from bed to bed like she had done something original.

Miramax knows that the Academy membership just wants to be seduced… just wants to know that someone has to have what they have to give. You just have to make them think that it was their idea to be the third "in control" girl in your bed that week.

The others will always accuse Miramax of sticking ruffies in the ice cubes at the Academy's free bar. And there have been breaches of rules and etiquette. Last year, the line was crossed and a price was paid. But make no mistake… in the end, Miramax has wanted it more, has been willing to say it and The Academy doesn't want to lose that attentive lover.

Every piece of evidence, including a fourth place opening, behind Paycheck, suggests that Cold Mountain should be in the "fighting for life" category. Miramax doesn't have the month of January to build the mountain from a molehill. It's not that Cold Mountain is a really bad movie… it just isn't the one true love of many people. But if you can't be with the one you love…

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The Rankings: December 26, 2003

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20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Nine
20 Weeks To Oscar: Critics Week Special
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Seven
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Six
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Five
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Four
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Three
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week Two
20 Weeks To Oscar: Week One
21 Weeks To Oscar
23 Weeks To Oscar
29 Weeks to Oscar

- by David Poland