..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

WEEK TWO

Not much happened to change the race this week. No revelatory screenings. No ugly moments. There has been some movement on A Love Song For Bobby Long. More HFPA rumors are floating as they see more titles.

This is still the moment when studios and talent can delude themselves into believing they are really in control. They have plenty of allies in this notion, myself included, as we parse small bits of information into trends and try to read the tea leaves before the tea has, for the most part, even been brought to the table.

What is most striking about this moment is that it is all about perception. Reality will come when we all have an opportunity to react to the real, wide-ranging response to films. But until then, perception will have to do.

For instance, both The Aviator and Alexander have to gross more than $100 million - or be well on the way - not to be seen as box office disappointments, a category that Academy voters avoid like the plague. Phantom of The Opera, Spanglish and The Life Aquatic With Steve Zissou each probably has to be looking like they will be doing no less than $75 million. Ray and Closer need to pass $50 million.

Movies like Sideways, Kinsey, Beyond The Sea, Motorcycle Diaries and Finding Neverland are all floating in an unsure target area. Under $10 million for any of these titles will not be enough to keep them in serious consideration. But do they need to make $20 million? $30 million? Honestly, I don't know. These are movies where feature writers and newspaper and trade box office writers can have something to do with defining perception. $50 million for any of these titles probably guarantees a Best Picture nod for being a surprisingly successful underdog.

And then there are the really small titles, like Vera Drake, Hotel Rwanda, A Very Long Engagement and The Sea Inside, whose yardstick for success will be… whatever. Right now, Imelda Staunton and Javier Bardem seem to be locks for nominations, with Don Cheadle in the next group. To get beyond that "award the actor" thing, the stars really have to line up for these films.

Then there are newcomers A Love Song For Bobby Long and Million Dollar Baby, both of which are still so wet that their boundaries are hard to figure. People are at least seeing Bobby Long, while Eastwood's film doesn't even have any media materials yet. Both films have probably been thrown into the race to try to take advantage of an opportunity in Lead Actress, while John Travolta will make a hard run at Best Actor and Morgan Freeman chases Supporting Actor.

Scarlet Johansson is one of those real complex runs. Her performance is solid enough, but the keys are probably her failure to get nominated last year and the fact that this is the most emotionally overt character Ms. Johansson has had to play in her career.

The movie is another interesting story. I found it very reminiscent of The Station Agent… a languorous, character driven drama with some nice surprises, good intentions and the creation of a family before our eyes. But A Love Song For Bobby Long doesn't have the time to percolate that The Station Agent did and I suspect that critics will not embrace a John Travolta film with the generosity they showed The Station Agent.

Sideways seems to be becoming this year's Lost in Translation… but not. It doesn't have the major star and the emerging actress. In many ways, Sideways is a better film… certainly as good a film. But L.I.T. opened in September last year and by this time had $21 million in the bank.

Miramax went early and often with Finding Neverland, apparently trying to position themselves as this year's Mystic River. But Neverland is no Mystic River, either in quality or pedigree.

 

New charts up later today..
October 21, 2004

Last Week's Charts:
Picture | Director | Actor/Supporting Actor | Actress/Supporting Actress
Screenplay/Adapted Screenplay

Previous Columns:
Week One: October 14, 2004
23 Weeks To Oscar: September 23, 2004
Oscar Preview: August 4, 2004

- Email David Poland