..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

January 4, 2009 Weekend Estimates Domestic Market Share Top Domestic Releases Barking Up the Same Tree The opening salvo of 2009 looked a lot like the last gasp of 2008 with cuddly Marley and Me leading ticket sales with an estimated $24.2 million. Despite the absence of new national releases box office rose 9% from last year’s first weekend. Initial data pegs domestic revenues for 2008 at $9.79 billion and a slight 1% increase from the prior year. However admissions once again declined. The drop in ticket sales is approximately 6%. Holdover titles generally experienced declines between 20% and 35% and overall that translated into weekend sales of close to $155 million. That equated to a 25% drop from last weekend. A year ago National Treasure: Book of Secrets topped the charts with box office of $20.1 million while Juno edged out I Am Legend by $150,000 with a $15.9 million tally. The final days of the year provided two more Oscar qualifiers -- both with Holocaust themes. Defiance, the fact-based tale of Jewish resistance fighters in Poland, grossed a hefty $121,000 from two screens while Good, the tale of a German intellectual coerced into the Nazi party, grossed $9,200 in two theaters. The glut of late-year award contenders largely held their ground with the exception of The Reader, which added 282 engagements and maintained a good screen average. Revolutionary Road went from three to 38 playdates and posted a $25,530 average. But the sturdiest challenger remained Gran Torino with a $33,450 average as it continued in 84 locations. Still there’s no clear sense from box office which films will be the biggest beneficiaries of Oscar, Globe, et al largesse. Slumdog Millionaire, minimally expected to be a major presence in high-profile categories, currently has grossed $28.6 million and won’t widen for several weeks, while limited exposure for Frost/Nixon has amassed $6.3 million and Doubt is at $18.6 million. Regardless, what appeared to be a wide field of prospects for critical kudos has shaken down quite rapidly to a narrow few. That’s emboldened Warners to re-issue The Dark Knight nationally this month, but prospects of a similar strategy for Wall-E will largely turn on whether it receives a best picture nomination from the Academy on January 20. Waltz with Bashir will undoubtedly receive a commercial boost should it receive the unprecedented hat trick of nomination in foreign-language, animated and documentary categories. - Leonard Klady Weekend Estimates - January 2-4, 2009 Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume Marley and Me Fox 24.2 (6,910) -33% 3505 106.7 Bedtime Stories BV 20.6 (5.580) -25% 3684 85.7 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Par 18.2 (6,110) -32% 2988 78.8 Valkyrie MGM 13.8 (4,980) -34% 2778 60.6 Yes Man WB 13.7 (3,990) -18% 3434 79.3 Seven Pounds Sony 10.0 (3,610) -24% 2758 60.1 The Tale of Despereaux Uni 7.0 (2,260) -21% 3091 43.7 Doubt Miramax 4.9 (3,820) -8% 1287 18.6 The Day the Earth Stood Still Fox 4.9 (2,080) -37% 2337 74.4 Slumdog Millionaire Fox Searchlight 4.6 (7,580) 8% 612 28.6 Twilight Summit 4.5 (2,360) -6% 1888 176.7 Bolt BV 3.3 (1,900) -3% 1729 109.9 The Spirit Lionsgate 3.2 (1,280) -50% 2509 17.7 Four Christmases WB 2.9 (1,240) -41% 2307 118.2 Gran Torino WB 2.8 (33,450) 21% 84 9.7 Milk Focus 1.8 (5,880) 3% 309 17.1 The Reader Weinstein Co. 1.5 (3,840) 130%- 398 3.5 Frost/Nixon Uni 1.4 (6,990) 5% 205 6.3 Quantum of Solace Sony 1.2 (1,300) -17% 891 166.9 Australia Fox 1.1 (1,470) 4% 765 46.7 Revolutionary Road Par Vantage .97 (25,530) 410% 38 1.4 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa Par .93 (1,310) 1% 707 176.9 The Wrestler Fox Searchlight .43 (24,110) 12% 18 1.8 Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) - $147.50 - - - % Change (Last Year) - 9% - - - % Change (Last Week) - -25% - - - Also debuting/expanding Ghajini Adlabs .24 (9,280) -69% 83 2.1 Defiance Par Vantage .12 (60,500) - 2 0 Last Chance Harvey Overture .11 (17,670) 9% 6 0.35 Waltz with Bashir Sony Classics 75,300 (6,840) 51% 11 0.18 Good Thinkfilm 9,200 (4,600) - 2 0.01 Domestic Market Share - To December 28, 2008 Distributor (releases) Gross Mrkt Share Warner Bros. (29) 1753.6 18.30% Paramount (17) 1563.7 16.40% Sony (26) 1268.8 13.30% Universal (22) 1107.9 11.60% Buena Vista (18) 990.3 10.40% Fox (24) 987.9 10.30% Lions Gate (21) 436.8 4.60% Summit (5) 222.9 2.30% Fox Searchlight (9) 211.7 2.20% MGM (17) 148.9 1.60% Focus (7) 138.8 1.40% Overture (8) 102.9 1.10% Paramount Vantage (12) 87.9 0.90% Miramax (10) 78.3 0.80% Picturehouse (7) 63.3 0.70% New Line (4) 61.8 0.60% Other * (326) 335.8 3.50% * none greater than 0.5% 9561.3 100.00% Top Domestic Grossers - To December 28, 2008 Title Distributor Gross The Dark Knight WB 530,896,852 Iron Man Par 318,338,993 Indiana Jones & Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Par 317,023,851 Hancock Sony 229,431,675 Wall-E BV 223,790,234 Kung Fu Panda Par 215,915,512 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa Par 174,862,381 Twilight Summit 167,325,198 Quantum of Solace Sony 164,302,659 Horton Hears a Who Fox 154,529,439 Sex and the City WB 152,647,258 Mamma Mia! Uni 144,195,815 The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspiance Caspian BV 141,682,713 The Incredible Hulk Uni 134,617,678 Wanted Uni 134,512,024 Get Smart WB 130,335,095 Juno * Fox Searchlight 115,568,583 Four Chrismases WB 111,588,896 Tropic Thunder Par 110,562,193 The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor Uni 103,183,080 Bolt BV 102,423,519 Journey to the Center of the Eartharth WB 101,704,370 Step Brothers Sony 101,294,165 Eagle Eye Par 101,111,837 You Don't Mess with the Zohan Sony 100,112,110