..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..R.J. Matson
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Michael Wilmington

July 29, 2007 Weekend Estimates Domestic Market Share Dough Nut ... "Why," asks Homer Simpson rhetorically, "would anyone go to the theater to see something they could see on TV?" Answer (diplomatically): Because it's bigger, man. The Simpsons Movie earned its big screen stripes with an estimated $71.2 million, roughly 40% of all ticket sales in the domestic marketplace. The unlikely American sweethearts created a sizeable boost in movie going leaving a trio of other national debuts scurrying for spill over business. The kitchen romantic comedy No Reservations basted together a respectable $11.5 million to rank sixth but other newcomers suffered from the competition. The Lindsay Lohan chiller I Know Who Killed Me (why would anyone go to the theater to see something they could see on TV) eked out $3.4 million and the golf comedy Who's Your Caddy? nipped into the top 10 with $2.8 million. The frame also saw a torrent of limited releases including good results of $30,400 for French import Moliere in six venues and a single screen gross of $17,100 for This is England. The frame was heavy with non-fiction fare that ranged from Iraq (No End in Sight) and Darfur (The Devil Came on Horseback) to Vietnam protest (The Camden 28), ecology (Arctic Tale) and a bygone Hollywood scandal (Girl 27). It was clear that The Simpsons Movie would be the top ranked film in the marketplace but none of the industry's tracking services saw a top end of more than $55 million and most predicted about $10 million lower. Obviously its considerable fan base couldn't wait to see the yellow-faced clan and put down enough change to generate the third highest opening gross for an animated feature behind the second and third installments of Shrek. And if there was any question of the series' global reach, its launch in 71 international territories silenced that discussion. Sunday estimates are projecting a $96 million gross with record-breaking animation openings in Germany and Australia and not too shabby returns in England, France, Spain and Korea. Marking on the curve, both I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry and Hairspray's second weekend's held well. The overall weekend total approached $180 million for a 17% hike from the immediate prior frame. It exceeded the 2006 tally by 39% when Miami Vice debuted to $25.7 million. The current season has evidenced a strong second wind that should continue with upcoming third installments of Rush Hour and Bourne in the wings. No Reservations, based on the German film Mostly Martha, positioned itself as an adult alternative to The Simpsons and audiences decided to nibble on its modest offerings. However, Sony approached I Know Who Killed Me like a hot potato when its headliner Lindsay Lohan received a harsh media spotlight for her extracurricular activity. There was also scant interest for Who's Your Caddy?, an unofficial update of Caddyshack with the country club intruder coming from the ranks of rap music. The session also saw good but not great expansions for both Rescue Dawn and Sunshine. In the present crowded marketplace it's unlikely either of the highly lauded pictures has a chance of upping the ante as high as 1,000 playdates. In the niches there were a number of surprises that included a potent single screen gross of $23,600 for the American indie Transformation and the aptly titled Iraq war documentary No End in Sight generating a roughly $15,000 screen average from two venues. - Leonard Klady Weekend Estimates - July 27-29, 2007 Title Distributor Gross (average) % change * Theaters Cume The Simpson Movie Fox 71.2 (18,160) - 3922 71.2 I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry Uni 19.1 (5,470) -44% 3501 71.7 Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix WB 17.3 (4,320) -47% 4005 242 Hairspray New Line 15.6 (5,000) -43% 3121 59.4 Transformers Par 11.5 (3,430) -44% 3349 284.5 No Reservations WB 11.5 (4,730) - 2425 11.5 Ratatouille BV 7.3 (2,470) -33% 2934 179.7 Live Free or Die Hard Fox 5.2 (2,310) -26% 2271 125 I Know Who Killed Me Sony 3.4 (2,550) - 1320 3.4 Who's Your Caddy? MGM 2.8 (2,790) - 1019 2.8 Rescue Dawn MGM 1.5 (3,040) 334% 500 2.8 License to Wed WB 1.3 (810) -63% 1610 41.7 Sunshine Searchlight 1.2 (2,690) 410% 460 1.6 Knocked Up Uni 1.1 (1,440) -50% 792 145.1 1408 MGM 1.1 (1,090) -59% 981 69.9 Evan Almighty Uni 1.0 (1,020) -60% 1010 96.2 Sicko LGF/Alliance 1.0 (1,190) -48% 850 21.3 Talk to Me Focus .77 (6,690) 116% 115 1.9 Shrek the Third Par .53 (1,160) 38% 455 319.7 Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $174.50 - - - % Change (Last Year) - 39% - - - % Change (Last Week) - 17% - - - Also debuting/expanding Moliere Sony Classics 30,400 (5,070) - 6 0.03 No End in Sight Magnolia 29,900 (14,950) - 2 0.03 Transformation Reel Diva 23,650 (23,650) - 1 0.02 Arctic Tale Par Vantage 19,350 (4,840) - 4 0.02 This is England IFC 17,200 (17,200) - 1 0.02 The Devil Came on Horseback Break Thru 10,050 (10,050) - 1 0.01 The Camden 28 1st Run 3,600 (3,600) - 1 0.01 Girl 27 Westlake 2,100 (2,100) - 1 0.01 Top Domestic Grossers: To July 26, 2007 Title Distributor Gross Spider-Man 3 Sony 335,798,600 Shrek the Third Par 319,201,132 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End BV 306,483,088 Transformers Par 273,034,005 Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix WB 224,706,129 300 WB 210,702,543 Ratatouille BV 172,448,802 Wild Hogs BV 168,100,227 Knocked Up Uni 143,935,350 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer Fox 129,289,364 Night at the Museum * Fox 125,041,114 Live Free or Die Hard Fox 119,777,661 Blades of Glory Par 118,542,791 Ghost Rider Sony 117,257,346 Ocean's Thirteen WB 115,077,496 Meet the Robinsons BV 97,206,741 Norbit Par 95,908,391 Evan Almighty Uni 95,186,730 Bridge to Terabithia BV 82,361,273 Disturbia Par 79,970,004 * does not include 2006 box office Domestic Market Share: To July 26, 2007 Distributor (Releases) Gross Market Share Paramount (14) 1123.9 19.70% Sony (17) 881.3 15.50% Buena Vista (14) 872.5 15.30% Warner Bros. (21) 872.1 15.30% Fox (15) 530.1 9.30% Universal (12) 513.2 9.00% MGM (14) 180.3 3.20% New Line (7) 152.7 2.70% Lions Gate (12) 120.9 2.10% Fox Searchlight (11) 83.5 1.50% Focus (4) 53.5 0.90% Picturehouse (3) 45.8 0.80% Miramax (6) 44.3 0.80% Par Vantage (4) 34.5 0.60% Sony Classics (12) 33.2 0.60% Other * (157) 154.4 2.70% * none greater than 0.5% 5696.2 100.00%