..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

July 30, 2006 Weekend Estimates Domestic Market Share Healthy, Wealthy and Vice ... The box office pundits were on the money as the debut of Miami Vice emerged the weekend’s top draw with an estimated $25.1 million. The frame also included a passable $14.1 million bow for the teen comedy John Tucker Must Die and a very potent limited launch for the Sundance favorite Little Miss Sunshine. However, it was once again Casey at the Bat time for Warners as the animated entry Ant Bully fell way below expectations with an opening of $8.2 million. While hardly a powerhouse, Miami Vice’s initial volley was precisely where studio and industry estimates had it pegged. Filmmaker Michael Mann has a history of soft openings and, perhaps ironically, this is his biggest weekend bow. Universal is crossing its fingers that the cool, brooding thriller will replicate the slow, steady business of his prior film Collateral that eventually grossed more than $100 million. The Pirates of the Caribbean sequel dropped 42% and that was one of the frame’s better holds. It ranked second overall with $20.4 million and its cume of $358.3 million is a new all-time record for Disney movies. It currently ranks 11 th among domestic box office grosser. Business at the multiplex rang up close to $135 million for a 15% dip from seven days earlier. It was however 4% higher than the comparable weekend of 2005 when the third frame of Wedding Crashers led with $20 million and the top new release was Sky High at $14.6 million. Peer pressure gone ballistic was the allure of John Tucker Must Die that ranked third overall. Its performance met no better than industry low end expectations and was far below any possibility of becoming either a genre or seasonal breakout success. Nonetheless it proved more commercially potent than Ant Bully that was perceived to be right behind Vice and Pirates in the lineup at the multiplex. Industry mavens questioned the wisdom of releasing yet another kid appeal movie in an already crowded market (and next week add Barnyard to the crush). So, Ant Bully was expected to disappoint with an opening round in the mid teens. Studio reps could barely disguise shock and felt it unnecessary to segment its gross from its 53 Imax engagements. The film split screens with Superman Returns in most Imax locales as well as in regular engagements. While it’s unusual but not unprecedented to split engagements during the first week of a commercial run, a Warner Bros. spokesman said it was only down on second or third screens of multiplex playdates. An audience favorite at Sundance, Little Miss Sunshine departed the event with an eye-popping paycheck from Fox Searchlight. The hilarious saga of an ultra dysfunctional family got a jump on the weekend with a Wednesday opener that netted $128,000 from seven playdates. It added about $360,000 during the weekend that translated into a potent $51,000 per engagement. Minimally it has the earmarks of replicating such company acquisitions as Napoleon Dynamite and Thank You for Smoking. Though unfavorably compared to Match Point, Woody Allen’s Scoop had a solid initial foray of $2.9 million from 538 locations. A more apt comparison would be Small Time Crooks or Hollywood Ending and by that measure the new comedy appears to be headed for an above par engagement. Other niche activity was largely unexceptional including the latest Bollywood circuit entry Omkara with a $230,000 tally from 47 engagements that trailed recent successes Faana and Krrish. The political doc America: Freedom to Facism had an initial jolt of $64,200 from 10 bully pulpits and the somewhat tongue-in-cheek Another Gay Movie scored just shy of $30,000 from two outings. Single screen engagements for Brother of the Head and I Like Killing Flies were undistinguished. - by Leonard Klady Weekend Estimates - July 28-30, 2006 Title Distributor Gross (average) % change Theaters Cume Miami Vice Uni 25.1 (8,300) - 3021 25.1 Pirates of Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV 20.4 (5,330) -42% 3834 358.3 John Tucker Must Die Fox 14.1 (5,500) - 2560 14.1 Monster House Sony 11.4 (3,220) -49% 3553 43.8 Ant Bully WB 8.2 (2,690) - 3050 8.2 You, Me and Dupree Uni 6.9 (2,460) -46% 2820 58.9 Lady in the Water WB 6.9 (2,130) -62% 3235 31.9 Little Man Sony 5.2 (2,370) -53% 2175 50.2 The Devil Wears Prada Fox 4.8 (2,690) -35% 1778 106.7 My Super Ex-Girlfriend Fox 3.8 (1,410) -56% 2702 16.5 Superman Returns WB 3.7 (1,830) -50% 2005 185.7 Clerks II MGM 3.6 (1,660) -64% 2150 18.1 Scoop Focus 2.9 (5,360) 538 2.9 Cars BV 2.3 (1,480) -53% 1556 234.5 Click Sony 2.0 (1,500) -51% 1326 132.5 An Inconvenient Truth Par Classics .79 (2,280) -21% 346 20.2 A Scanner Darkly WIP .51 (1,940) -25% 263 4.1 Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films) $122.60 - - - % Change (Last Year) - 4% - - - % Change (Last Week) - -15% - - - Also debuting/expanding Little Miss Sunshine Fox Searchlight .36 (51,040) - 7 0.48 Omkara Eros .23 (4,950) - 47 0.23 America: Freedom to Facism Cinema Libre 64,200 (6,420) - 10 0.06 Another Gay Movie TLA 29,400 (14,700) - 2 0.03 13 Tzameti Palm 11,600 (11,600) - 1 0.01 Brothers of the Head IFC 5,600 (5,600) - 1 0.01 I Like Killing Flies Thinkfilm 5,500 (5,500) - 1 0.01 Top Limited Releases: January 1 - July 27, 2006 Match Point DmWks 23,052,317 An Inconvenient Truth Par Classics 19,407,112 Deep Sea 3-D WB 15,185,979 Mrs. Henderson Presents Weinstein Co. 10,662,712 Transamerica Weinstein Co. 8,771,637 Good Night, and Good Luck WIP 8,203,593 Magnificent Desolation Imax 7,729,825 The World's Fastest Indian Magnolia 5,128,124 Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada Sony Classics 4,996,040 The Libertine Weinstein Co. 4,773,768 Keeping Up with the Steins Mrmx 4,307,112 Roving Mars BV 4,200,612 Cache (Hidden) Sony Class/Alliance 3,732,437 A Scanner Darkly WIP 3,618,318 Wild Safari 3-D nWave 3,533,634 Water Fox Searchlight 3,085,357 Tsotsi Mrmx 2,912,606 La Mujer de Mi Hermano Lions Gate 2,808,241 The Lost City Magnolia/Alliance 2,459,876 Wordplay IFC 2,399,606 * none greater than 545 theaters Domestic Market Share: January 1 - July 27, 2006 Buena Vista (17) 966.1 17.70% Sony (19) 922.1 16.90% Fox (17) 920.2 16.80% Universal (13) 576.3 10.50% Warner Bros. (14) 565.4 10.30% Paramount (9) 531.1 9.70% Weinstein Co. (9) 192.3 3.50% Lions Gate (12) 168.2 3.10% Focus (8) 122.9 2.30% New Line (7) 119.3 2.20% Fox Searchlight (8) 96.9 1.80% Sony Classics (14) 48.5 0.90% MGM (2) 37.1 0.70% Other * (175) 199.4 3.60% * none greater than 0.45% 5465.8 100.00%