..Gary Dretzka
..
Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

May 14, 2006
May 7, 2006
April 30, 2006
April 23, 2006
April 16, 2006
April 9, 2006
April 2, 2006
March 26, 2006
March 19, 2006
March 12, 2006
March 5, 2006
Feb 26, 2006
Feb 20, 2006
Feb 10, 2006
Feb 4, 2006
Jan 29, 2006
Jan 22, 2006
Jan 16, 2006
Jan 8, 2006
Jan 2, 2006
Dec 26, 2005
Dec 18, 2005
Dec 11, 2005
Dec 4, 2005




May 14, 2006
Weekend Estimates
Worldwide Grosses
Domestic Market Share

That Sinking Feeling ...

Mission: Impossible III took close to a 50% hit but that was still enough to keep it ahead of the debut of Poseidon. The Mission statement was estimated at $24.6 million while the upside-down remake soaked up $20.5 million. The marketplace had other soggy starts including a fourth place opening of $5.6 million for the Lindsey Lohan romantic-comedy Just My Luck and a $1.9 million bow for the soccer-themed Goal! from England. It added down to lower grosses from the prior year as well as the prior weekend.

It wasn't much of a surprise that MI3 experienced what's become a typical second weekend drop for a tentpole movie. However, as its opener was below estimates, there was disappointment that it won't emerge as quite the powerhouse the industry had anticipated. Fears that next weekend's arrival of The Da Vinci Code will suck up the grosses of current releases leave the Tom Cruise vehicle gasping to surpass an eventual $175 million domestic gross.

More than just the Captain went down with Poseidon. The remake of the 1972 catastrophe chestnut had been displaying all the signs of commercial disappointment for weeks but pundits still expected a first place finish with a box office of $25 million to $30 million. Its Imax run was about the only bright spot with an estimated $1.5 million from 64 venues.

The picture dipped its toe into international markets with openings in six Asian territories including India, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines were in rang up an impressive $4.4 million estimate including Imax runs in India. The film opened at the top of the charts in all territories except Indonesia and India.

On a scaled down basis, the expectation/results ratio wasn't any better for Just My Luck. Promoted as Lindsay Lohan's first mature role, the romantic comedy appeared to have drawn in her core audience … just not enough of them.

Weekend business was clocking in just shy of $100 million in ticket sales or 13% behind last weekend's Cruise speed. It also lagged in relation to 2005's pace when Monster in Law and Kicking and Screaming led the frame with respective debuts of $23.1 million and $20.2 million.

Soccer movies have never particularly galvanized American audiences though ironically one year ago a variant with a comedic spin opened with comparable numbers to this weekend's Poseidon. Goal! certainly failed to buck the trend though the British production's U.S. release appeared to be an afterthought. The film was released internationally in 2005 and rang up about $18 million in Europe and South America.

Results in niche play were also generally disappointing. The ethnic comedy Keeping Up with the Steins had no better than fair returns of $590,000 from 138 mtzvahs. Sony Classics abandoned its traditionally cautious release expansions on Art School Confidential with the addition of 750 playdates from its 12-screen bow. Its $1.2 million weekend painted it into an alcove with no commercial upside.

On a pound-for-pound basis a couple of non-fiction portraits were trumps among new releases. Sketches of Frank Gehry by Sydney Pollack grossed almost $17,000 from two exclusive engagements while Giuliani Time on the former Big Apple mayor was eyeing $8,500 on a single screen.

The rest of the freshman class included the coming of age Wah-Wah with $52,000 at 25 engagements; Russian Dolls, the sequel to L'Auberge Espagnole, cradling $15,000 from three theaters and the heartwarming canine Saving Shiloh off the leash with $5,200 from 30 kennels.

- by Leonard Klady


Weekend Estimates - May 5-7, 2006

Title
Distributor
Gross (average)
% change
Theaters
Cume
Mission: Impossible III
Par
24.6 (6,060)
-48%
4059
84.7
Poseidon
WB
20.5 (5,760)
-
3555
20.5
RV
Sony
9.0 (2,540)
-18%
3536
42.3
Just My Luck
Fox
5.6 (2,190)
-
2541
5.6
United 93
Uni
3.6 (1,940)
-32%
1871
25.7
An American Haunting
Freestyle
3.4 (1,980)
-42%
1703
10.6
Stick It
BV
3.3 (1,630)
-40%
2009
22.3
Ice Age: The Meltdown
Fox
2.9 (1,550)
-30%
1879
187.3
Silent Hill
Sony/Alliance
2.2 (1,170)
-45%
1888
44.5
Hoot
New Line
2.1 (690)
-38%
3018
6.2
Akeelah and the Bee
Lions Gate
2.0 (1,730)
-40%
1176
13.6
Scary Movie 4
Weinstein Co.
2.0 (1,130)
-45%
1793
86.5
Goal!
BV
1.9 (1,910)
1007
1.9
The Wild
BV
1.6 (1,320)
-39%
1216
34.3
The Sentinel
Fox
1.5 (1,160)
-50%
1314
33.6
Art School Confidential
Sony Classics
1.2 (1,540)
760%
762
1.4
The Benchwarmers
Sony
1.0 (1,060)
-49%
969
57.1
Thank You for Smoking
Fox Searchlight
.94 (2,200)
-11%
427
21.4
Friends with Money
Sony Classics
.85 (1,870)
-23%
455
11.2
Inside Man
Uni
.62 (1,360)
-31%
455
87
Keeping Up with the Steins
Miramax
.59 (4,270)
-
138
0.59
Weekend Total ($500,000+ Films)
$91.40
-
-
-
% Change (Last Year)
-
-6%
-
-
-
% Change (Last Week)
-
-13%
-
-
-
Also debuting/expanding
Wah-Wah
IDP
52,300 (2,090)
-
25
0.05
Sketches of Frank Gehry
Sony Classics
16,900 (8,440)
-
2
0.02
Russian Dolls
IFC
15,300 (5,100)
-
3
0.02
Giuliani Time
Cinema Libre
8,500 (8,500)
-
1
0.01
Saving Shiloh
New Dog
5,200 (170)
-
30
0.01

Top Domestic Grossers: January 1 - May 11, 2006

Ice Age: The Meltdown
Fox
184,420,315
Failure to Launch
Par
87,328,276
Inside Man
Uni
86,368,485
Scary Movie 4
Weinstein Co.
84,501,768
The Pink Panther
Sony
82,939,694
The Chronicles of Narnia *
BV
82,270,870
Eight Below
BV
81,231,885
Brokeback Mountain *
Focus
70,615,735
Big Momma's House 2
Fox
70,085,227
V for Vendetta
WB
69,563,652
Medea's Family Reunion
Lions Gate
63,392,499
Underworld: Evolution
Sony
62,615,442
Mission: Impossible III
Par
60,091,171
King Kong *
Uni
59,422,439
Curious George
Uni
58,463,139
The Shaggy Dog
BV
57,450,175
Fun with Dick and Jane *
Sony
57,288,236
The Benchwarmers
Sony
56,107,026
Final Destination 3
NLC
54,351,887
Hoodwinked
Weinstein Co.
51,224,985
* does not include 2005 box office

Domestic Market Share: January 1 - May 11, 2006

Fox (11)
458.4
15.90%
Sony (15)
452.7
15.70%
Buena Vista (14)
373.6
12.90%
Universal (10)
333.6
11.60%
Warner Bros. (10)
238.5
8.30%
Paramount (7)
224.1
7.80%
Weinstein Co. (9)
185.9
6.40%
Lions Gate (9)
143.6
5.00%
New Line (6)
113.5
3.90%
Focus (7)
100.8
3.50%
Fox Searchlight (7)
89.4
3.10%
Sony Classics (12)
40.8
1.40%
DreamWorks (3)
24.7
0.80%
MGM (1)
21.8
0.80%
Other * (113)
85.2
2.90%
* none greater than 0.5%
2886.6
100.00%

 

 


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