..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

The One That Got Away The gap between The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and the rest of the pack continued to shrink, but the closing installment of the epic trilogy of Middle Earth held a slim lead against Sony's national expansion of Big Fish. The two films have respective weekend estimates of $14.1 million and $13.9 million. … Or will it play out differently? New Line, the Ringsmeister, is reporting a marginally higher weekend estimate and claiming top spot. But Sony, repping Fish, also says it's number one with an in-house estimate of $14.5 million. Most studio trackers are siding with New Line. However, here are a few facts that aren't in dispute. Big Fish was first on Friday with a daily gross of approximately $4.7 million that put it ahead of Rings 3 by 25%. The order reversed on Saturday as Fish business expanded by about 25% and the Rings ballooned 75%. Allowing for margin of error, the two films were virtually tied for the two days. So, it all hinges on Sunday business and that's where the prognosticators have a wide latitude and the most generous can find that weather, football games and the like will require them to revise downward when real figures are crunched Monday morning. About 20 years ago the trade papers established the practice of reporting weekend estimates and today virtually every major news outlet follows suit. Because they are first, the predictions tend to be treated as gospel and the actuals receive secondary notice. MCN crunches its own numbers and this report tends to differ from others but is no less likely to err. And that's why they are called estimates. That said, Big Fish had an effective expansion with the studio generating considerably better than a $5,000 theater average it was felt necessary to keep its commercial hopes alive. Return of the King continues to play at a pace better than the prior two episodes with its current cume at $312 million. The weekend also saw the debuts of a couple of national releases but neither film was a standout. Miramax's comedy My Baby's Daddy - being sold as an African American Three Men and a Baby - ranked fifth with an estimated $8 million and respectable $5,560 theater average while Warner Bros.' Mandy Moore romantic comedy limped into seventh place with $6.2 million. Overall weekend business should deliver a tally around $106 million for a 26% slide from seven days earlier. It was also off roughly 4% from 2003 when the sole debuting national release Just Married topped the charts with a $17.5 million weekend. Holdover titles typically experienced erosions of one-third to one-half from New Year's weekend. Fox's Cheaper by the Dozen crossed over into the $100 million club with The Cat in the Hat shy of that mark by about $200,000 and both Something's Gotta Give and The Last Samurai closing in on a seven figure domestic gross. Only Something's Gotta Give appears likely to benefit commercially from the traditional boost accorded Oscar nominees. Newmarket continued to cautiously expand Monster and maintained close to a $10,000 theater average from its current 82 engagements. Nick Broomfield's new documentary on real-life Monster Aileen Worunos did almost $18,000 in its opening weekend at three theaters. Awards attention also provided a modest boost for Lost in Translation but such films as 21 Grams, In America and House of Sand and Fog are all teetering on a future predicated on receiving Academy Awards attention in high profile categories. The frame also saw a number of limited releases with the most conspicuous being the reissue of the classic The Battle of Algiers from 1966. The seminal docudrama has been in the news lately as a favorite of military strategists grappling with Iraqi occupation and looking at the way France lost its North African colony. The film grossed about $66,000 on seven screens. Utah based HaleStorm released its latest family friendly picture The Home Teachers at 20 venues for fair business of $64,000. - by Leonard Klady