..Gary Dretzka
..Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

So Good, So Far The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King rang in the first weekend of 2004 with an estimated $28.9 million and a cumulative domestic gross of $290.6 million that led the frame to a record for an annual debut. The final installment of the Tolkien trilogy is maintaining a slightly better pace than The Two Towers both in North America and internationally and with excellent Oscar prospects could push toward an eventual $400 million box office. Typically, there were no new national debuts and those films that had been playing both well and poorly continued to variously soar and struggle. Overall box office for the weekend should ring in with approximately $145 million for a 23% decline from the prior weekend. It's also roughly 13% better than the start of 2003 when the second chapter of The Rings grossed $25 million and Catch Me If You Can followed with $21.1 million. Initial tallies for the calendar year total slightly more than $9.2 billion and that would indicate a very slim box office boost of 4/10th of 1% from 2002 and a 4% decline in admissions. Other reports comparing last year's 52 week span to the prior year's 53 week reporting period saw a small box office downturn. However, since 1989, the most salient factors are admission upturns and declines in average production and marketing costs that occurred respectively twice, once and never. Were it not for new ancillary revenue streams and growing overseas markets, the overall industry picture would be very grim. Though there was a paucity of new movies, Buena Vista effectively expanded its lively Brit import Calendar Girls and cracked the top 10 with a $4.5 million weekend. While hardly a dynamo, the film is doing exceptionally well for a movie of its ilk (think The Full Monty or Bend It Like Beckham) and that could cement perhaps a couple of nominations when the Oscar ballot is announced in a couple of weeks. Other current limited releases including In America, 21 Grams and House of Sand and Fog are truly struggling and desperately hoping for Academy recognition to provide a commercial second wind. Next weekend Big Fish - which has been performing extremely well in semi-exclusive release - expands nationally. It's worth noting that historically more than 70% of Oscar ballots are returned within 72 hours of receipt by members. However, given the abbreviated award season it's likely that percentage will decline this year. Apart from the Hobbits, comedy has emerged as the seasonal trump card with both the inane Cheaper by the Dozen and the adult appeal Something's Gotta Give poised to gross more than $100 million. The Thanksgiving entry The Cat in the Hat is also on the cusp of that figure and there's little doubt that The Last Samurai will trudge to that level. In the latter two instance one can only repeat the significance ancillary revenues have in putting a picture into profit for a studio. The most conspicuous causality remains Mona Lisa Smile, especially as its overseas prospects are soft and a great big question mark looms over Cold Mountain. The latter film is unquestionably playing the Oscar card as - apart from Golden Globe nominations - it's yet to find favor from year end critics group lists. Japanese Story, the winner of the Australian Oscar, nipped in as an Oscar qualifier but was a commercial also ran with a $17,000 weekend in five locations. It palled beside a trio of movies that are currently creating buzz in semi-exclusive release including Monster, Girl with a Pearl Earring and The Company. Again, the future of those films will largely be shaped by award recognition and none has very good across the board prospects. Still, Monster has to benefit from Charlize Theron's performance that's sure to be vying for Oscar voter's hearts against the individual and career achievement work of Diane Keaton in Something's Gotta Give. Also stay tuned for year end charts for top grosser and market share in the next week. - by Leonard Klady