..Gary Dretzka
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Noah Forrest
..Leonard Klady
..David Poland
..Douglas Pratt
..Ray Pride
..Kim Voynar
..Michael Wilmington

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January 5, 2003

 





The King is in His Counting House …

There's little doubt that Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King rules as it added an estimated $51.3 million during the three-day Christmas holiday weekend as part of the roughly $190 million in movie ticket sold in North America. The finale to the popular trilogy could well out perform the prior two chapters domestically and push the trio's collective gross to $1 billion.

The more difficult question is whether any of the new or recent yuletide entries can touch the hem of the monarch.

The top freshman entry was Fox's updated Cheaper by the Dozen with an estimated $28.5 million weekend and $36.6 million since bowing Christmas day to rank second. The lowbrow family hijinx definitely connected with children and parents and swallowed up a sizeable slice of that crowd to the detriment of other family themed movies. It has excellent prospects for a $100 million domestic gross.

Cheaper's solid debut came at the expense of Universal's Peter Pan which slotted sixth with $11.7 million and $15.4 million for the four day. Audiences elected for crass over class and the boy who wouldn't grow up is in dire need of bodies rather than pixie dust as it trudges into the New Year.

The highly bally-hoed bow of Cold Mountain verged on the frosty with a $14.4 million weekend and $18.8 million cume. Miramax had a similar upscale challenge last year with The Gangs of New York and may be able to climb slightly higher with the new film pushing its romantic elements to a distaff crowd.

Also bowing was the thriller Paycheck with a weekend tally of $13.6 million and $18.9 million to date. The Ben Affleck vehicle appears headed toward a $60 million domestic gross that is likely no better than had it elected to debut in the Spring. Its commercial fate will largely be shaped by response in overseas markets.

Though holiday ticket buying ballooned by 34% from last weekend, the portioning out of dollars resulted in an equal share of treats and lumps of coal. Business was also a slight 6% ahead of 2002 when the box office leader was The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers at $48.9 million and the sole national debut Catch Me If You Can ranked second with $30.1 million.

The die has also been cast for a number of ongoing titles with early seasonal casualties shaping up for Mona Lisa Smile and Stuck on You. While Julia Roberts' Mona Lisa dipped just 1%, the period drama had a disappointing launch and is losing its audience to other movies in the marketplace. Stuck is simply hemorrhaging at a more accelerated rate and won't do much better than a $30 million gross.

Conversely, Something's Gotta Give is emerging as the adult film of choice, rising 24% for a $14.1 million weekend and $56.3 million cume. The Diane Keaton-Jack Nicholson romantic comedy is beginning to see its appeal broaden and likely to sustain beyond the holiday frame from Oscar and other award attention. There's no need to overplay the obvious success of Elf and Bad Santa or the commercial disappointment of The Last Samurai.

Several films launched significant expansion but only Big Fish sustained its initial momentum. The oddball human comedy went from six to 124 playdates and rang up $1.9 million and theater averages of $15,700. The critically lauded House of Sand and Fog added 436 locations from its initial two theater run and grossed $1.8 million and a $4,100 average engagement and the addition of 200 plus theaters for 21 Grams resulted in a comparable $4,020 per location average. Softish results were also indicative for In America.

A couple of films were in the still too close to call column. Buena Vista doubled its limited run on Calendar Girls and generated a $9,260 per screen with prior runs going up by 50% on average. The acid test for the uplifting comedy will occur with a New Year expansion to 700 theaters. Similarly, Lions Gates' Girl with the Pearl Earring bumped up nicely as it grew from eight to 25 venues and registered a $7,200 average. Again, greater hurdles loom but the film shows signs of developing a solid buzz and growing interest.

Christmas also featured a few limited and specialized openers including the Hindi-language L.O.C. (Kargil) with close to $300,000 from 61 circuit screens. There was strong response for Newmarket's four screen launch of Monster that's been garnering tremendous buzz for Charlize Theron as serial killer Aileen Wuronos. It grossed just shy of $100,000 in its first four days of release. Finally, Sony Classics' ballet-themed The Company had an encouraging $130,000 box office from 11 engagements since its Christmas day bow.

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- by Leonard Klady

 

 


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