Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for June, 2018

Friday Box Office Estimates

Sicario: Day of the Soldado and Uncle Drew arrive, each floating around the $20 million mark for the weekend. If they can triple that, both will be legit successes. Anything more will be gravy. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom falls as expected, Friday-to-Friday. Leave No Trace and Three Identical Strangers open per-screen strong.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom breaks the all-time record for most $125 million openings in the first 7 months of the year, a success which is reasonably followed by the question of whether there will be any more such openings this year. The record is 6 in one year – 2016 – which included an August and a December release. Meanwhile, the mid-week July 4 holiday is not a friend to JW2… because there is no 3-day or 4-day weekend and the holiday bump (last seen in 2012) is minor at best. It doesn’t hurt, but it doesn’t help much. Strong Friday-to-Friday hold for Incredibles 2 after its massive open last weekend. The King joins Won’t You Be My Neighbor in the 10K per-screeen doc club.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Incredibles 2*|71.4|4410|NEW|71.4 Ocean’s 8|5.9|4145|-62%|65.5 Tag|5.4|3382|NEW|5.4 Solo: A Star Wars Story|2.3|3182|-44%|186.1 Deadpool 2|2.3|3212|-40%|288.2 Hereditary|2.2|2998|-57%|22.3 Superfly|1.8|2220|NEW|4 Avengers: Infinity War|1.4|2164|-24%|660.3 Adrift|0.65|1929|-57%|25.4 Gotti|0.6|503|NEW|0.6 |||| * includes previews|||| |||| |||| Also Debuting|||| Race 3|0.59|313|| Sammohanam|0.1|121|| Naa Nuvve|15,100|118|| Eating Animals|12,200|2|| 7 Din Mohabbat In|8,900|31|| Outez-moi d’un doute|2,900|11|| Five Seasons: Gardens of Piet Oudolf|2,200|4|| The Yellow Birds|2,000|14|| The Year of Spectacular Men|1,800|11||…

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Friday Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Solo‘s second weekend is not shocking. But the rest of the media will tell you it is, because they will ride the negativity as long as they can. (Guess: two more weeks). A 77% first-Friday-to-second-Friday drop isn’t the best, but 70% is to be expected (remember, totals now include Thursday night) and 77% is not horrible. But the endless attack on Solo‘s box office absolutely creates damage. And that damage doesn’t accrue to the benefit of any other film… it just tears down Solo. Speaking to a friend who covers Europe, it seems Disney cut back on Solo screens going into the opening… so the blame doesn’t just land with a thoughtless media or a production that never overcame the firing of popular, cutting-edge directors. By far, the most shocking opening of the season is Action Point, which Paramount wanted to get off of its books like a rash. Johnny Knoxville hasn’t opened a stunt-oriented movie at Paramount to less than $29 million in the past (as recently as 2013) and this film won’t likely get to $2.9 million. If no one gets fired next week, you will know that this was intentional.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
The Meg 16.5 4118 NEW 16.5
Mission: Impossible - Fallout 5.3 3888 -46% 147.3
Slender Man 4.8 2358 NEW 4.8
Christopher Robin 3.6 3602 -62% 41.2
BlacKKKlansman 3.6 1512 NEW 3.6
The Spy Who Dumped Me 1.8 3111 -63% 19.8
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again 1.7 2812 -40% 99.7
The Equalizer 1.4 2373 -42% 85.4
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation 1.4 2589 -43% 143.2
Ant-Man and the Wasp 1.1 1863 -40% 200.6
Also Debuting
Dog Days 0.75 2442
Vishwaroopam 2 0.11 179
The Island 78,500 39
Srinivasa Kalyanam 46,300 127
Dakuaan da Munda 37,600 21
BuyBust 20,400 25
The Spy Gone North 9,600 2
Dans la brume 5,900 12
Madeline's Madeline 5,700 1
Skate Kitchen 5,100 1
A Prayer Before Dawn 4,500 13
Cielo 3,800 3
Larguees 2,400 11
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4