Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for March, 2018

Friday Box-Office Estimates

Ready Player 15.2 Million.”

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Pacific Rim Uprising will land in first place, but only because of timing, off 25% from the original. Black Panther falls to #2 while passing The Last Jedi and Avengers domestically. Tough weekend. Sherlock Gnomes was left on the lawn… no one saw the dog. Soderbergh’s iPhone epic, Unsane, has the double-trouble of a still-unsettled marketing formula and Claire Foy as another Netflix star who can’t draw American audiences to a theater. (Universal would have opened this, regardless.) Wes Anderson arrives on 27 screens to about $60k per, which marks the first time a Wes has opened on more than five screens since Bottle Rocket and suggests a frustrated distributor.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

WB’s Tomb Raider takes Friday from Black Panther, the first time it’s dropped to second in a month… but look for Panther to strike back over the weekend, in line with its weeks of over-performing on Saturdays. It could be close in Sunday estimates with both films near $26 million. But the surprise of the weekend is the big number for I Can Only Imagine, a religious family drama released by Roadside for Lionsgate for LD, another reminder of an under-served audience that is white and middle-class, likely grossing most of its dollars outside the major markets on just 1,629 screens. Love, Simon opens modestly, but not embarrassingly so, given the lack of movie star power.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Disney’s A Wrinkle In Time launches just ahead of Disney’s Black Panther, which will be the story over the weekend. Wrinklehas the upside of being a family movie, which should offer a Saturday bump, but Panther has had Saturday family bumps of 65% and 85%, which Wrinkle may not match. And then Sunday…

Also opening, Aviron’s second release, a picked-up sequel to a 2008 Rogue-Focus release, The Strangers… which will likely open to about half the original. And at the $3 million opening level, STX’s Gringo and Entertainment Studios’ The Hurricane Heist.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Get Out opened to $33 million Oscar weekend last year, and goes to the wire with a Best Picture nomination this Weekend. Red Sparrow, not so much. Jennifer Lawrence held the mantle of Biggest Star In The World for a moment, but an under-$20 million open for this film argues that she needs to make better non-franchise choices. Also not opening, Death Wish, which didn’t make an argument about why it was more than a day at the White House. Black Panther stays on the prowl, getting to $450 million domestic in 15 days and maintaining expectations of a $600 million-plus domestic total, which has only happened only five times in box office history.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again 14.3 3317 NEW 14.3
The Equalizer 13.3 3388 NEW 13.3
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation 6.7 4267 -54% 74.6
Ant-Man and the Wasp 4.4 3778 -47% 152.9
Skyscraper 3.1 3822 -66% 38.9
Incredibles 2 3.1 3164 -33% 548.9
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 3 3381 -36% 375.9
The First Purge 1.5 2331 -51% 56.7
Unfriended: Dark Web 1.4 1546 NEW 1.4
Sorry to Bother You 0.8 1050 -47% 8.2
Also Debuting
Blindspotting 0.13 14
Dhadak 0.13 99
I Love You, Hater 37,100 35
McQueen 34,600 4
Teefa in Trouble 13,900 29
Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms 12,400 22
Lover 11,300 51
Running for Grace 11,100 4
Generation Wealth 10,300 4
Je vais mieux 7,200 7
Far From the Tree 6,850 1
The Third Murder 2,050 1
Damascus Cover 1,100 3
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4