Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for January, 2018

Friday Box Office Estimates

This is the weekend where Split opened to $40 million last year and xXx3 to $20 million. Nothing like that this year. Although a horror film, Split had a strong appeal to women. 12 Strong and Den of Thieves, no. The one female reach-out, Forever My Girl, looking like warmed-over Nicholas Sparks, is on only 1,115 screens and may be adversely affected by The Women’s March. These three new titles will not gross as much this weekend as the opening of Split last year. Oscar expansions should turn up in the Top 10 next week, following nominations. But there’s no big opener until February 9.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Jumanji continues as king of the jungle. The Post expands pretty much as expected. Liam Neeson and Jaume Collet-Serra team up again and do a little better than Run All Night, but not as well as Non-Stop. Proud Mary comes up short of tracking, but not as badly as it probably deserves. And Paddington 2 starts slow, but should pop up to #4 for the weekend as kids flood the room today and tomorrow.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The first weekend of 2018 is already stronger than the first weekend of 2017, led by a single newcomer, Insidious 4, whose Friday gross is about 2.5x last year’s first release, Underworld 5. Likewise, top holdover Jumanji 2 is about 25% stronger than last year’s Hidden Figures. And Star Wars: The Last Jedi is about 10% ahead of Rogue One, both on their 22nd day, as TLJ heads to something around $625 million domestic, aka #5 all-time domestic. Molly’s Game and Darkest Hour expand significantly while a few still-limited awards hopefuls expand incrementally.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
12 Strong WB 5.6 3002 NEW
Den of Thieves STX/VVS 5.6 2432 NEW
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony 4.8 3704 -21%
The Post Fox 3.5 2851 -41%
The Greatest Showman Fox 3 2823 -2%
The Commuter Lionsgate 2 2892 -57%
Insidious: The Last Key Uni 1.8 2546 -48%
Paddington 2 WB 1.8 3702 -27%
Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV 1.6 2456 -41%
Forever My Girl Roadside Attractions 1.5 1115 NEW
Also Debuting
Mary and the Witch's Flower Gkids 0.31 149
Hochelaga, Terre des ames Seville 40,900 32
Colao Caribbean 36,100 7
A Better Tomorrow 2018 Media Asia 19,900 31
The Final Year Magnolia 18,900 28
The Road Movie Oscilloscope 5,800 14
Mom and Dad Momentum 5,500 50
Beuys Kino 3,400 1
Small Town Crime Saban 2,100 9
A Ciambra IFC 1,700 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4