Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for July, 2017

Friday Box Office Estimates

S–t, yeah! The Emoji Movie, aka the worst-reviewed movie of the summer, will not only win the weekend, but it will likely win the weekend by a good amount. But the hold for Dunkirk isn’t poop at all. Newcomer Atomic Blonde is pushing the, “yes, you will see Charlize naked and kicking ass a lot” emoji, but is going to straddle the $20 million mark for the weekend anyway. And Girls Trip is also holding strong with a double-grapefruit emoji. Detroit arrives on 20 screens, looking at a per-screen near $20k, which suggests that the word-of-mouth release might be the right strategy.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Dunkirk storms the beaches, overperforming with a sure IMAX $ push. Girls Trip, the fifth comedy released this summer, has a better opening day than the first two days of any other summer comedy. And Valerian opens softly, with almost the exact opening as The Fifth Element (1997). And opening over $10k per screen on four, Landline.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

A bit better than the first of this series… a little worse than the second… this Friday ape-ening is a box-office non-story. As we humble Americans are getting sick of writing every week, the story is international, where Rise of the Planet of the Apes did $200 million more than Dawn ($502m international). $175m – $225 million is what domestic will look like. Spider-Home has a normal drop off a $100m+ open, so far. The Big Sick goes wide and with a $3.000-ish per-screen for the weekend, is doing solid business to scale. Baby & Woman hold fast. Wish Upon continues the meh-diocre opening streak for Broad Green.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Spider-Man returns… but how much better are the numbers? At the end of its first weekend, The Amazing Spider-Man had brought in $137 million. With a $51m Friday, Spider-Man: Homecoming is on pace to have about the same amount as ASM. The Big Question remains… can the latest reboot do more than $500 million worldwide to top the previous incarnation? Also opening wide… nothing. A24’s A Ghost Story will do about $25k per screen on four for the weekend.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Hard to say what this Despicable weekend will turn into when compared to other Despicable weekends. There still seems a strong chance of a $100 million 3-day, given normal patterns… but it could be short… or it could challenge Minions‘ $115m launch. And how will a Tuesday July 4 play? Baby Driver isn’t blowing the roof off, but it is getting the word of mouth to fuel it forward. Edgar Wright’s biggest domestic open by a long shot. And WB threw The House out like trash and it’s performing as such.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Incredibles 2* 71.4 4410 NEW 71.4
Ocean's 8 5.9 4145 -62% 65.5
Tag 5.4 3382 NEW 5.4
Solo: A Star Wars Story 2.3 3182 -44% 186.1
Deadpool 2 2.3 3212 -40% 288.2
Hereditary 2.2 2998 -57% 22.3
Superfly 1.8 2220 NEW 4
Avengers: Infinity War 1.4 2164 -24% 660.3
Adrift 0.65 1929 -57% 25.4
Gotti 0.6 503 NEW 0.6
* includes Thursday opening
Also Debuting
Race 3 0.59 313
Sammohanam 0.1 121
Naa Nuvve 15,100 118
Eating Animals 12,200 2
7 Din Mohabbat In 8,900 31
Outez-moi d'un doute 2,900 11
Five Seasons: Gardens of Piet Oudolf 2,200 4
The Yellow Birds 2,000 14
The Year of Spectacular Men 1,800 11
Straight Into a Storm 1,800 1
Gabriel and the Mountain 1,500 2
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4