Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for February, 2017

Friday Box Office Estimates

Get Out is an ironic hit on #OscarWeekendSoRacial. Will the trajectory of the film across the weekend be horror movie or comedy date film? Fifty Shades Darker continues to drop like a lead balloon, but will pass $100m domestic and $300m worldwide today as its producer prepares to present the Oscar telecast. Lion continues to expand, and Hidden Figures stays slightly ahead of La La Land at the domestic box office (but way behind internationally). Animated Feature nominee My Life As A Zucchini opens as the only $10k+ limited/exclusive.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Lego Batman rolls along, though it is not up to par with The Lego Movie and doesn’t bode well for the future Lego-branded titles that don’t have the most powerful franchise brands in the movie business. Fifty Shades Darker is more than 40% off the first of the series, but it will still cross $100m+ domestic. Newcomer The Great Wall is outperforming low expectations, but hardly a hit. Fist Fight is looking at the worst Ice Cube opening in over a decade. And Fox doesn’t find much interest in A Cure for Wellness, sold as horror/thriller in-betweener.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

-30%. -16%. +100%.

Those opening day drops for each of the “sequels” that opened on Friday. As you can see, John Wick 2 doubled its launch (and also its budget). Of course, even if it doubles its overall worldwide gross, JW2 is “only” a $175m worldwide movie. Lego and 50 Shades were $470m and $570m worldwide, respectively. Both “sequels” will be profitable. But how much will those original grosses drop when all is said and done?

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Opening on Super Bowl weekend can be treacherous. Sunday is already the softest day of the box office weekend, but on Super Sunday, it’s positively limp. Last year, Universal counter-programmed the event with a Coen Bros movie, which did okay for a Coen Bros movie. This year, Paramount went out with the genre that tends to fall like a stone on Sunday anyway, horror, and released the reboot Rings, which will win the weekend with a bigger launch than Hail, Caesar!, but not close to the #1 movie last SB weekend, Panda 3. The other newcomer, The Space Between Us, has a lot of space between it and the top.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Super Troopers 2 7.9 2038 NEW 7.9
A Quiet Place 6.4 3808 39% 117
I Feel Pretty 6.1 3440 NEW 6.1
Rampage 5 4115 46% 50.6
Truth or Dare 2.5 3068 70% 25
Blockers 2.1 3134 36% 43.4
Ready Player One 1.9 3208 36% 121
Bharat Ane Nenu 1.5 323 NEW 1.5
Traffik 1.4 1046 NEW 1.4
Black Panther 1.2 1930 16% 678
Also Debuting
Little Pink House 10,300 8
Beyond the Clounds 8,800 41
Khido Khundi 8,500 33
Dude's Manual 7,400 14
Ghost Stories 5,300 1
Godard Mon Amour 4,100 4
L'Apparition 3,900 6
The Devil and Father Amorth 3,300 3
Eye on Juliet 2,300 9
Le Corbeau (reissue) 2,200 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4