Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for December, 2016

Friday Box Office Estimates

Seven studio Christmas weekend releases, four going wide, with three in exclusive runs. There is no comparative title for Sing, but the closest seems to be Alvin & The Chipmunks, which ended up with over $200m domestic. Passengers is looking to be Jennifer Lawrence’s worst wide opening, though not disastrously so, as international is anticipated as a big part of the box office total. Why Him? is soft, though not far off Sisters last December. And Assassin’s Creed seems to be Fox betting that the title will be the next Warcraft, which did only 10% of its business domestically. Silence will be the per-screen winner for the weekend by far, with Patriots Day poised to eventually do better wide than in exclusive release.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

What more is there to say than, “Star Wars: Rogue One?” It is impossible to say exactly what the $70m Friday-plus opening will lead to this weekend, but using The Force Awakens as a comp, it should do about $150m over the 3-day-plus opening. Nothing to sneeze at, but not Top 10 all-time either. Also opening, Collateral Beauty, for which there is more than enough room in the marketplace as a counterprogrammer, meaning that it is not collateral damage, just a flop in its own right Also, expansions of La La Land and Manchester by the Sea go well, if not shockingly so.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The top grosser of the weekend will be Office Christmas Party. But the lead story will be La La Land, which, on five screens, will be behind only 1995’s Pocahontas and 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel in per-screen opening average on more than two screens.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

It’s one of Hollywood’s least favorite weekends, the first weekend of December. The only new wide release is from a little-known independent. The bright light is Fox Searchlight’s Jackie, which is on five screens, averaging $18k on Friday alone, suggesting a weekend per-screen of over $50,000 per.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
12 Strong WB 5.6 3002 NEW
Den of Thieves STX/VVS 5.6 2432 NEW
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony 4.8 3704 -21%
The Post Fox 3.5 2851 -41%
The Greatest Showman Fox 3 2823 -2%
The Commuter Lionsgate 2 2892 -57%
Insidious: The Last Key Uni 1.8 2546 -48%
Paddington 2 WB 1.8 3702 -27%
Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV 1.6 2456 -41%
Forever My Girl Roadside Attractions 1.5 1115 NEW
Also Debuting
Mary and the Witch's Flower Gkids 0.31 149
Hochelaga, Terre des ames Seville 40,900 32
Colao Caribbean 36,100 7
A Better Tomorrow 2018 Media Asia 19,900 31
The Final Year Magnolia 18,900 28
The Road Movie Oscilloscope 5,800 14
Mom and Dad Momentum 5,500 50
Beuys Kino 3,400 1
Small Town Crime Saban 2,100 9
A Ciambra IFC 1,700 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4