Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for November, 2016

Friday Box Office Estimates

A mixed bag on Thanksgiving weekend at the box office. It’s early to get a full read on Moana as its launch outpaces Frozen, but it is a rarity for a big animated movie to open on Thanksgiving weekend. Tea leaves are blurry. Likewise, the question of Doctor Strange remains open, as its 24 days to get to $200 million domestic is right in the middle of the Marvel pack. And Fantastic Beasts is pacing right along with the 2nd and 3rd Potter films so far. Allied opens soft, pacing with Australia, though it would be worth noting that Australia did over $200m worldwide and Allied could well do the same. Arrival is the strong hold of the week. Bad Santa 2 peed on Santa’s leg. Lion and Miss Sloane deliver in exclusive runs.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Unexpectedly, Fantastic Beasts seems soft in the perspective of 5-day Harry Potter openings. Still, what may well be a $100m+ opening weekend would be foolish to doubt. The big Friday opening took steam out of the market, especially for family and action. The Edge of Seventeen has been a passion project for STX, but not much of a start. Tough to figure out what else they could have done to get it rolling. Great start for Manchester by the Sea. Solid for Nocturnal Animals.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Doctor Strange is building with unusually strong weekday numbers and a strong Friday hold Marvel’s latest entry is looking more like a high-200s domestic grosser than a low-200s, which would make it the only non-Iron-Man-starring product besides Guardians to explode out of the gate. Trolls holds solid. Arrival lands, although not overwhelmingly. (A movie meant to build.) And Almost Christmas opens less strongly than Will Packer’s This Christmas, but is aimed at Thanksgiving week. Also holding, Hacksaw Ridge. Big two-screen start for Ang Lee’s motion-emotion experiment of Billy Lynn’s Halftime Walk.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Doctor Strange delivers the fifth $30m+ opening day of 2016 and the first since Suicide Squad in August. It’s a solid opening, slightly better than the original Iron Man, which kicked off the Marvel Universe by Marvel and slightly behind Guardians. Trolls will not catch up, but will likely come just short of a $50 million launch, not quite at Disney levels, but strong for DreamWorks in recent years. Hacksaw Ridge gets off slowly.. .but will couldĀ build in middle America after the election.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Super Troopers 2 7.9 2038 NEW 7.9
A Quiet Place 6.4 3808 39% 117
I Feel Pretty 6.1 3440 NEW 6.1
Rampage 5 4115 46% 50.6
Truth or Dare 2.5 3068 70% 25
Blockers 2.1 3134 36% 43.4
Ready Player One 1.9 3208 36% 121
Bharat Ane Nenu 1.5 323 NEW 1.5
Traffik 1.4 1046 NEW 1.4
Black Panther 1.2 1930 16% 678
Also Debuting
Little Pink House 10,300 8
Beyond the Clounds 8,800 41
Khido Khundi 8,500 33
Dude's Manual 7,400 14
Ghost Stories 5,300 1
Godard Mon Amour 4,100 4
L'Apparition 3,900 6
The Devil and Father Amorth 3,300 3
Eye on Juliet 2,300 9
Le Corbeau (reissue) 2,200 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4