Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for July, 2016

Friday Box Office Estimates

The Jason Bourne Friday opening is very Bourne-like, right between the top-grossing #3 in the series ($24.7m) and the 2nd best #2 ($18.4). The audience is there… the question is how hungry America and the world is for handcrafted action filmmaking and strong silent types. Meanwhile, STX delivers its first major studio-level opening with Bad Moms grossing $2.4 million less on Friday than the nascent distributor’s best 3-day launch to date. Not doing as well is Nerve, which opened on Wednesday and hopes to crack $15m for the 5-day, unlikely to beat Bad Grandpa‘s $35.6m as Lionsgate’s top domestic grosser of the year to date.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

In the weekend of familiar franchise entries, the headline will read “Sky Still Falling,” though Star Trek: Beyond could become modestly profitable because through international, and Ice Age: Collision Course will be a significant moneymaker, the last Ice 2012) pulling in $716m from international alone. Another nearly certain cash machine is Lights Out, a James Wan special for WB that was cheap enough to produce that even with marketing and the customary large horror drop-offs, domestic theatrical can put the film in profit. Strong launch of Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie by Searchlight at $2100 per screen on 313 as well as for Don’t Think Twice, Mike Birbiglia’s follow-up to Sleepwalk with Me.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

This weekend, it’s a shower and a grower… a massive start for Pets and what might be the beginning of a momentum hit in Mike & Dave & Anna & Aubrey. Not a lot more greatness in the Top Ten aside from Dory, although Tarzan looks like he may swing higher and longer than naysayers thought.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Early results are in for The Purge: Election Year, though expect it to land in second, maybe even third. Finding Dory will once again float to the top of the bowl, while newcomers The Legend of Tarzan could wind up in the #2 slot (or #3) depending on what audience actually showed up for this swing. The BFG is looking at a $30m+ 4-day, but that is still disappointing versus expectations of a big-budget Spielberg movie. Disney will look for international to make the film profitable. In other news, ID4-2 gets slaughtered on its second Friday, off a stomach-twisting 72%, though this film too could be pushed into black ink by international… as long as crap word-of-mouth doesn’t catch up everywhere outside the US.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Incredibles 2* 71.4 4410 NEW 71.4
Ocean's 8 5.9 4145 -62% 65.5
Tag 5.4 3382 NEW 5.4
Solo: A Star Wars Story 2.3 3182 -44% 186.1
Deadpool 2 2.3 3212 -40% 288.2
Hereditary 2.2 2998 -57% 22.3
Superfly 1.8 2220 NEW 4
Avengers: Infinity War 1.4 2164 -24% 660.3
Adrift 0.65 1929 -57% 25.4
Gotti 0.6 503 NEW 0.6
* includes Thursday opening
Also Debuting
Race 3 0.59 313
Sammohanam 0.1 121
Naa Nuvve 15,100 118
Eating Animals 12,200 2
7 Din Mohabbat In 8,900 31
Outez-moi d'un doute 2,900 11
Five Seasons: Gardens of Piet Oudolf 2,200 4
The Yellow Birds 2,000 14
The Year of Spectacular Men 1,800 11
Straight Into a Storm 1,800 1
Gabriel and the Mountain 1,500 2
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4