Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for June, 2016

Friday Box Office Estimates

The world is under attack again… this time, it’s a blue fish swimming right through and past a Will Smith-less ID4-2. Finding Dory is way out in front of any animated film in domestic and will actually be the biggest 10-day grosser of the year at the end of this weekend, passing Captain America: Civil War. Dory is pretty much guaranteed to pass BvS: Apology Tour 1 to give Disney the Top 4 grossers of the year worldwide before August 1. Jaume Collet-Serra’s latest, The Shallows, opens right between his last two films, which starred Liam Neeson. Decent, but hardly a bell-ringer. Free State of Jones is another soft opener for STX, a company filled with veterans with smarts that picks hard-to-market movies that prove, repeatedly, to be hard to market. Swiss Army Man blows away all the other indie openers with a per-screen on three that looks to top $40k.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Finding Dory opens with a 34% bump over the previous best Pixar opening ever (Toy Story 3). Buy how will this be reflected in the 3-day gross, given the 2010 marketplace vs today’s? Based on last summer’s Minions, Dory is swimming towards $137m opening… but no one will know for sure until later today. A little Hart and a big Johnson pays off with an opening day slightly off of Hart’s top showing, Ride Along. Still, it should give WB its second weekend in a row with a $35m+ opening, its third such launch in a year with 5 titles opening between $9m and $20m. And Tickled has a shot at $10k per screen on two.

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Friday Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
12 Strong WB 5.6 3002 NEW
Den of Thieves STX/VVS 5.6 2432 NEW
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony 4.8 3704 -21%
The Post Fox 3.5 2851 -41%
The Greatest Showman Fox 3 2823 -2%
The Commuter Lionsgate 2 2892 -57%
Insidious: The Last Key Uni 1.8 2546 -48%
Paddington 2 WB 1.8 3702 -27%
Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV 1.6 2456 -41%
Forever My Girl Roadside Attractions 1.5 1115 NEW
Also Debuting
Mary and the Witch's Flower Gkids 0.31 149
Hochelaga, Terre des ames Seville 40,900 32
Colao Caribbean 36,100 7
A Better Tomorrow 2018 Media Asia 19,900 31
The Final Year Magnolia 18,900 28
The Road Movie Oscilloscope 5,800 14
Mom and Dad Momentum 5,500 50
Beuys Kino 3,400 1
Small Town Crime Saban 2,100 9
A Ciambra IFC 1,700 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4