Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for April, 2016

Friday Box Office Estimates

In the dead weekend before the “official” start of summer, there are no challenges to the king of the April jungle. Three new movies, but only one from a major and all three chasing alternative audiences. Keanu chases the Key & Peele audience with a kitty cat… one scaring away guys and the other scaring away kids who love kitties. Mother’s Day is warmed over Garry Marshall hash… Four big heads on the poster is all they could do. And Ratchet & Clank is a cartoon from a popular video game… which we are still waiting to work as a movie for the first time.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The Huntsman: Winter’s War, a movie for which the title character wasn’t sold and the studio tried to bend the film’s premise into a 30something, CGfied version of Frozen, opened to a little better than 1/3 of its predecessor. Universal has another month before what should be their first breakout hit of 2016, Neighbors 2. The only indie with a shot at $10k per screen is The Meddler, the Susan Sarandon comedy, on just four screens this weekend.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

A solid opening for The Jungle Book. There is likely $30 million or more in what was the opening weekend pot waiting on word-of-mouth from non-critics to determine whether the under-8 set should see or avoid the movie, which is an action sell. This opening isn’t a game changer, especially given the cost of the film. But it is plenty good enough, especially with a good international start as well. Universal will be aiming to beat whatever this 3-day ends up being with its second Huntsman film to focus on the women, not the Huntsman. Barbershop: The Next Cut opening day-ed right between the original and the sequel. BvS drops 60% again.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The solid opening of The Boss seems less like news than a 2nd-3rd Friday drop for Batman v Superman of 60%… which is ugly. Hardcore Henry, which STX tried very hard to launch, didn’t get far off the pad, hoping to get just over $5m for the weekend. A lot of indie firepower this weekend has led nowhere much. Quality, high indie profile films Demolition, The Invitation, and Louder Than Bombs will all miss the $10k per screen standard for a big indie launch (though to be fair, the Jake Gyllenhaal starrer will come in close to $1m for the weekend).

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Batman v Superman v word-of-mouth: BvS falls from yet another high place with a record 72% drop.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Incredibles 2* 71.4 4410 NEW 71.4
Ocean's 8 5.9 4145 -62% 65.5
Tag 5.4 3382 NEW 5.4
Solo: A Star Wars Story 2.3 3182 -44% 186.1
Deadpool 2 2.3 3212 -40% 288.2
Hereditary 2.2 2998 -57% 22.3
Superfly 1.8 2220 NEW 4
Avengers: Infinity War 1.4 2164 -24% 660.3
Adrift 0.65 1929 -57% 25.4
Gotti 0.6 503 NEW 0.6
* includes Thursday opening
Also Debuting
Race 3 0.59 313
Sammohanam 0.1 121
Naa Nuvve 15,100 118
Eating Animals 12,200 2
7 Din Mohabbat In 8,900 31
Outez-moi d'un doute 2,900 11
Five Seasons: Gardens of Piet Oudolf 2,200 4
The Yellow Birds 2,000 14
The Year of Spectacular Men 1,800 11
Straight Into a Storm 1,800 1
Gabriel and the Mountain 1,500 2
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4