Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for January, 2016

Friday Box Office Estimates

Easily the softest launch for a Kung Fu Panda movie… but also the first non-summer release in the series and the first encumbered by a lot of TV/streaming programming around the characters. Po will not save DWA… nor will he sink it. (And $600m overseas – which is possible – could make it a big round hit, regardless of the U.S.) The Finest Hours is the second reminder (after 13 Hours) that the January Warrior niche is not a lock at the box office. That audience is there, waiting… but like the faith audience, you need to hit them just right. And no one was much interested in Fifty Shades of Black… a parody of a parody. This is the softest open for a Wayans (any Wayans) movie in a long time.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Blizzards and travel bans along the East coast may well be responsible for 20% – 30% lower overall box office this weekend. But there is no mistaking the weak weekend for what it is. Under the circumstances, The Revenant is holding well. Dirty Grandpa could have managed $15m or more, though the question now is whether audiences like the thing (critics don’t). STX would have had its biggest opening with The Boy… but now has to wonder whether they can postpone the launch in the snowed-in areas next weekend and make it up.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The Revenant sticks the landing, as it builds on its strong opening with an excellent hold, guided by its Oscar nomination success. The Big Short is the only other Best Picture nominee in the Top 10, looking to hit $50 million by the end of the weekend. Meanwhile, Ride Along 2 returns to about 16% less than the original did twp years ago in the same slot. Michael Bay’s Benghazi testosterone ride opens pretty well, though not quite as explosively as some thought it might, running at about half the speed of Lone Survivor, which set the standard (after 2002’s Black Hawk Down). Barely on the radar, Norm of the North.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The Revenant arrives with a bear of an opening, thrashing Star Wars to within an inch of its $800-million-at-the-end-of-the-weekend life. The Forest arrives to a mixed number… not a bomb by the standard of the genre in January, but not a hit either. The other holdovers get hit hard by “not a holiday anymore” disease.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Star Wars: The Force Awakens continues to dominate the known universe, likely to announce a Sunday estimate topping Avatar‘s record domestic gross. The film will pass $700 million today, 16 days into its run, while Avatar hit the mark on its 72nd day of release.But Avatar maintains a $1.3 billion lead in international theatrical.

Daddy’s Home will pass the $90m mark that Get Hard achieved this last spring, marking Will Ferrell’s third $90m+ domestic hit in the last two years. The Hateful 8 expanded earlier than expected, delivering a solid $7,500 or so per-screen for the weekend, but significantly behind the opening of Django Unchained in 2012.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Incredibles 2* 71.4 4410 NEW 71.4
Ocean's 8 5.9 4145 -62% 65.5
Tag 5.4 3382 NEW 5.4
Solo: A Star Wars Story 2.3 3182 -44% 186.1
Deadpool 2 2.3 3212 -40% 288.2
Hereditary 2.2 2998 -57% 22.3
Superfly 1.8 2220 NEW 4
Avengers: Infinity War 1.4 2164 -24% 660.3
Adrift 0.65 1929 -57% 25.4
Gotti 0.6 503 NEW 0.6
* includes Thursday opening
Also Debuting
Race 3 0.59 313
Sammohanam 0.1 121
Naa Nuvve 15,100 118
Eating Animals 12,200 2
7 Din Mohabbat In 8,900 31
Outez-moi d'un doute 2,900 11
Five Seasons: Gardens of Piet Oudolf 2,200 4
The Yellow Birds 2,000 14
The Year of Spectacular Men 1,800 11
Straight Into a Storm 1,800 1
Gabriel and the Mountain 1,500 2
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4