Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for October, 2015

Friday Box Office Esitmates

Holdovers enjoyed excellent Friday holds based on a combination of no new competition (unintentionally) at the box office and, perhaps, people going to the movies Friday in anticipation of not going on Saturday (Halloween night) in normal numbers. The last time Halloween fell on a Saturday was 2006, and holdovers had a normal Saturday uptick, while the new film in the market took a Saturday hit and then had an unusual upsurge on Sunday. The last occurrence before that was 1998, so not a lot to work with in direct comparisons. Burnt is toast. And WB continues Hell Year with its smallest wide release (over 400 screens) this year and its second worst opening for a film that it signaled clearly for months was unimportant to the studio. Paramount’s two-week-window stunt continues, with Paranormal 5 dropping 65% Friday-to-Friday and the launch of Scout’s Guide To The Apocalypse to $444 per screen last night. So much for changing the face of distribution.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Pretty solid holds for the films that have been in the market for a while, but the story of the weekend is that none of the new releases look likely to crack $10 million. The range of “not quites” goes from a Vin Diesel action film, to the 1656-screen-2-week-to-VOD-window-horror-sequel, to a highly-touted Oscar aspirant.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

With four new major releases and one mid-sized Christian-draw film, it’s a full boat at the box office. The only film likely to squeeze out over $20 million is Goosebumps, which is a strong, if narrow (8-16) play. The Martian remains a rock, well off of Gravity‘s pace in terms of October releases and well ahead of Gone Girl‘s. The newest Spielberg, Bridge of Spies, is in a usual place for Spielberg openings. It’s not quite as strong a start as Lincoln (about 17% off), but like Lincoln, it’s head-and-shoulders above the openings of other “smaller” Spielberg movies… the dramas. Crimson Peak is one of Guillermo del Toro’s slowest starters, having not had a wide opening of less than $23m since 1997’s Mimic. The question for this one will be the domestic multiple and the international return for a rare kind of genre play.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The Top 2 will remain the Top 2, as panned newcomer Pan fails to pan for gold in them-thar box offices. The Walk stumbles on its expansion from 448 extra-large screens to 2509 standard venues and now looks unlikely to reach the better side of $15 million domestically, hoping to recover its modest budget from international venues that are still wild for 3D. And Steve Jobs lands strongly in a four-screen exclusive with $100k+ per-screen for the weekend, much like both Birdman ($42m dom) and The Imitation Game ($91m dom) last year.

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Friday Estimates

Mission to Martian succeeds with $17.8 million in the tanks.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Super Troopers 2 7.9 2038 NEW 7.9
A Quiet Place 6.4 3808 39% 117
I Feel Pretty 6.1 3440 NEW 6.1
Rampage 5 4115 46% 50.6
Truth or Dare 2.5 3068 70% 25
Blockers 2.1 3134 36% 43.4
Ready Player One 1.9 3208 36% 121
Bharat Ane Nenu 1.5 323 NEW 1.5
Traffik 1.4 1046 NEW 1.4
Black Panther 1.2 1930 16% 678
Also Debuting
Little Pink House 10,300 8
Beyond the Clounds 8,800 41
Khido Khundi 8,500 33
Dude's Manual 7,400 14
Ghost Stories 5,300 1
Godard Mon Amour 4,100 4
L'Apparition 3,900 6
The Devil and Father Amorth 3,300 3
Eye on Juliet 2,300 9
Le Corbeau (reissue) 2,200 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4