Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for July, 2015

Friday Box Office Estimates

An underwhelming launch for Pixels is still enough to put it out front on Friday, though there is still an outside chance that Pixels or Ant-Man could pass it by the end of the weekend. It’s not a Blended or That’s My Boy box-office car wreck, but it’s not as strong an opening as Jack & Jill. Also opening are Paper Towns and Southpaw (currently in that order), with both films servicing specific niches and not, apparently, reaching far beyond. Towns has a legit shot at still being nicely profitable if it gets past $40 million, as this opening suggests. Southpaw has a bigger budget and will need help internationally, though Wanda’s funding may lead to Wanda’s influence at the Chinese box office, where it could make it all back.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Ant-Man rises, a little behind where the first Captain America and Thor films started on opening day. Both ended up around $175m domestic and over $350 million worldwide. This launch is significant for Marvel’s ongoing Avengers-lite films, though the real story will be whether Ant-Man II can grow like Cap & Thor did. Trainwreck is right about where Spy opened. Both films have female leads and Apatow connections. Spy is past $100 million domestic and matching that would be huge for first-time movie star Amy Schumer. Strong limited indie launches for Woody Allen’s Irrational Man (est $25k per) and Kyle Patrick Alvarez’s The Stanford Prison Experiment (est $12k per) and a nice start for Mr. Holmes on 363 screens (est $5k per).

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Minions had (by estimate) the 23rd biggest opening day ever, which is also the fourth best opening day of 2015. It is, however, the best opening day by an animated film in history, passing up Toy Story 3‘s $41.1 million launch day of 2010, which led to a $110m 3-day. Will it become Universal’s third $120m+ opening of the summer? This is also the fourth $100m opening of the year, tying the record, and it is the fourth of this summer, doubling the previous record of two. With the final Hunger Games coming in November and the possibility of Star Wars becoming the first December $100m opening, box office records continue to be shattered.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

After all the absurd jockeying for position, it doesn’t look like the two popular newcomers have any chance to beat the two holdovers over the 5-day or the 3-day numbers, with Magic Mike XXL looking like the most front-loaded and thonged of the foursome. The only question for Inside Out, which currently looks like the weekend’s easy winner is whether the holiday Saturday will slow it down with family attendance compared to the more adult films. In the indies, Amy is the clear heroine, showing the public’s continuing interest in experiencing music docs in theaters, with a $60k per-screen for three days on five.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom * 58.6 4475 NEW 58.6
Incredibles 2 24.4 4410 -54% 293.9
Ocean's 8 3.4 3656 -42% 92.1
Tag 2.4 3382 -56% 24.6
Deadpool 2 1.5 2420 -37% 300.4
Solo: A Star Wars Story 1.2 2338 -52% 199.3
Hereditary 1.1 2002 -51% 32.3
Superfly 0.95 2220 -49% 12.9
Avengers: Infinity War 0.7 1456 -52% 667.7
Won't You Be My Neighbo? 0.55 348 73% 2.8
* includes previews
Also Debuting
The Catch Was a Spy 25,900 48
My 2 Mommies 18,300 20
Tik Tik Tik 15,200 33
Lobster Cop 12,600 12
The Accidental Detective 2: In Action 11,100 10
Asees 10,100 15
The King 8,500 2
Boundaries 7,800 5
Damsel 6,100 3
Izzy Gets the F*ck Across Town 4,300 16
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4