Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for June, 2015

Friday Box Office Estimates

Inside Out again leads Friday with Jurassic Park nipping at its heels. Jurassic Park has held like a family movie through its first two weekends, so expectations will be for more of the same this frame. Ted 2, which was projected at $50 million early in the week, then $40 million in the last couple of days, is looking like it will come up short on both of those marks. And WB’s fifth release in seven weekends, a family dog movie called Max, could end up being right in the middle of the WB summer pack in terms of openings with anywhere from $11m – $14m, depending on how strongly it plays today with families.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Inside Out looks to be the second biggest Pixar opening ever, behind only Toy Story 3, with a launch (with Thursday sneaks) in the low 90s. Jurassic World holds well for a mega-opening, dropping just 55% Friday-to-Friday (remember to forget the $18.5m Thursday sneaks), suggesting an $86.5 million second weekend (382.5m cume), which would keep its domestic just ahead of The Avengers after two weekends. No other films are looking at $10 million or better for the weekend. The Overnight looks to be the strongest arthouse player with a strong $15k per-screen (maybe more, if it plays as a date film tonight) on three screens.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Universal’s explosive year (coming off their strongest year of profits without tentpoles) continues, as the return of Jurassic Park captures the imagination of the world 22 years after the original, opening to a then-record $18.2 million (including Thursday previews as seems to be the studio-chosen style right now). The lack of other wide newcomers and the holdovers paid some price on Friday for the Jurassic success. Two strong indie openings, as Me, Earl & The Dying Girl did $4613 per on 15 and The Wolfpack pulled $4550 per on two.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

There was a lot of outraged buzz about Entourage this week, but after putting $7.4 million in the coffers on Wednesday and Thursday, the party seems over. Vinny and the boys will challenge Aloha for title of Worst 3-Day Opening Of The Summer (So Far). Almost three times as many people went to go see Melissa McCarthy in Spy on Friday, as the film likely wins the weekend with a Saturday bump and the best legs in the weekend’s Top 4. Friday’s #1 is Insidious 3, which opened to about half of what Insidious 2 did, but should manage an impressive $20m-25m for the weekend. Testament of Youth is the only new indie with a shot at $5k or better per screen this weekend.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
The Meg 16.5 4118 NEW 16.5
Mission: Impossible - Fallout 5.3 3888 -46% 147.3
Slender Man 4.8 2358 NEW 4.8
Christopher Robin 3.6 3602 -62% 41.2
BlacKKKlansman 3.6 1512 NEW 3.6
The Spy Who Dumped Me 1.8 3111 -63% 19.8
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again 1.7 2812 -40% 99.7
The Equalizer 1.4 2373 -42% 85.4
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation 1.4 2589 -43% 143.2
Ant-Man and the Wasp 1.1 1863 -40% 200.6
Also Debuting
Dog Days 0.75 2442
Vishwaroopam 2 0.11 179
The Island 78,500 39
Srinivasa Kalyanam 46,300 127
Dakuaan da Munda 37,600 21
BuyBust 20,400 25
The Spy Gone North 9,600 2
Dans la brume 5,900 12
Madeline's Madeline 5,700 1
Skate Kitchen 5,100 1
A Prayer Before Dawn 4,500 13
Cielo 3,800 3
Larguees 2,400 11
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4