Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for June, 2015

Friday Box Office Estimates

Inside Out again leads Friday with Jurassic Park nipping at its heels. Jurassic Park has held like a family movie through its first two weekends, so expectations will be for more of the same this frame. Ted 2, which was projected at $50 million early in the week, then $40 million in the last couple of days, is looking like it will come up short on both of those marks. And WB’s fifth release in seven weekends, a family dog movie called Max, could end up being right in the middle of the WB summer pack in terms of openings with anywhere from $11m – $14m, depending on how strongly it plays today with families.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Inside Out looks to be the second biggest Pixar opening ever, behind only Toy Story 3, with a launch (with Thursday sneaks) in the low 90s. Jurassic World holds well for a mega-opening, dropping just 55% Friday-to-Friday (remember to forget the $18.5m Thursday sneaks), suggesting an $86.5 million second weekend (382.5m cume), which would keep its domestic just ahead of The Avengers after two weekends. No other films are looking at $10 million or better for the weekend. The Overnight looks to be the strongest arthouse player with a strong $15k per-screen (maybe more, if it plays as a date film tonight) on three screens.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Universal’s explosive year (coming off their strongest year of profits without tentpoles) continues, as the return of Jurassic Park captures the imagination of the world 22 years after the original, opening to a then-record $18.2 million (including Thursday previews as seems to be the studio-chosen style right now). The lack of other wide newcomers and the holdovers paid some price on Friday for the Jurassic success. Two strong indie openings, as Me, Earl & The Dying Girl did $4613 per on 15 and The Wolfpack pulled $4550 per on two.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

There was a lot of outraged buzz about Entourage this week, but after putting $7.4 million in the coffers on Wednesday and Thursday, the party seems over. Vinny and the boys will challenge Aloha for title of Worst 3-Day Opening Of The Summer (So Far). Almost three times as many people went to go see Melissa McCarthy in Spy on Friday, as the film likely wins the weekend with a Saturday bump and the best legs in the weekend’s Top 4. Friday’s #1 is Insidious 3, which opened to about half of what Insidious 2 did, but should manage an impressive $20m-25m for the weekend. Testament of Youth is the only new indie with a shot at $5k or better per screen this weekend.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
12 Strong WB 5.6 3002 NEW
Den of Thieves STX/VVS 5.6 2432 NEW
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony 4.8 3704 -21%
The Post Fox 3.5 2851 -41%
The Greatest Showman Fox 3 2823 -2%
The Commuter Lionsgate 2 2892 -57%
Insidious: The Last Key Uni 1.8 2546 -48%
Paddington 2 WB 1.8 3702 -27%
Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV 1.6 2456 -41%
Forever My Girl Roadside Attractions 1.5 1115 NEW
Also Debuting
Mary and the Witch's Flower Gkids 0.31 149
Hochelaga, Terre des ames Seville 40,900 32
Colao Caribbean 36,100 7
A Better Tomorrow 2018 Media Asia 19,900 31
The Final Year Magnolia 18,900 28
The Road Movie Oscilloscope 5,800 14
Mom and Dad Momentum 5,500 50
Beuys Kino 3,400 1
Small Town Crime Saban 2,100 9
A Ciambra IFC 1,700 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4