Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for January, 2015

Friday Box Office Estimates

American Sniper showed traditional fatigue yesterday, dropping a more normal 45% from the previous Friday. Still, as the film’s weekends have gone so well so far, it will pass $250 million domestic Sunday. Three wide release newcomers (Project Almanac, Black or White, and The Loft) will fail to reach as much as $10 million. In limited release, the “Game of Thrones “special IMAX release drew about $3300 per screen and showings of Oscar-nominated shorts will extend to almost $200k this weekend.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

American Sniper dropped a little bit more than some projections expected, but will still have a remarkable second weekend and will be in range of $200 million by weekend’s end (a little under or over). The much-abused The Boy Next Door will do a little less than last weekend’s The Wedding Ringer, which is off 53% Friday-to-Friday. And in carwreck mode are both Johnny “Time For A New Schtick” Depp’s Mortdecai and George Lucas’ Lucasfilm swan song, Strange Magic.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Clint’s bullseye: a $30 million opening day; Kevin Hart comes up relatively short at $6.9 million; Paddington‘s accepted by a new society at $4.6 million, while Liam Neeson’s Taken another $4.3 million for a cume of $53.1 million. Selma hits $20 million while Blackhat deciphers only $1.8 million at eighth.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

For all the negativity around Taken 3, it will still open better than the original in 2008, though not quite as well as the sequel (2012)… which could still be enough to become the biggest opening ever in January (though it will probably fall short by a few million). Selma opens nicely, though not overwhelmingly. There aren’t a lot of good comparable releases with an awards push, a hold on limited screens into January, and then the big expansion. Selma continues to be on its own path, approaching $11 million for the weekend.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The final Hobbit film remains firmly ensconced in the top slot for another weekend. The Woman in Black 2 , following up on the Daniel Radcliffe surprise hit from CBS Films in 2012, opens just about 10% behind the first without Mr. Potter front and center. Into The Woods and Unbroken remain neck-and-neck as they have ever since Christmas Day. And A Most Violent Year ‘s first weekend appearance is chasing $50k per-screen on four.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
12 Strong WB 5.6 3002 NEW
Den of Thieves STX/VVS 5.6 2432 NEW
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony 4.8 3704 -21%
The Post Fox 3.5 2851 -41%
The Greatest Showman Fox 3 2823 -2%
The Commuter Lionsgate 2 2892 -57%
Insidious: The Last Key Uni 1.8 2546 -48%
Paddington 2 WB 1.8 3702 -27%
Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV 1.6 2456 -41%
Forever My Girl Roadside Attractions 1.5 1115 NEW
Also Debuting
Mary and the Witch's Flower Gkids 0.31 149
Hochelaga, Terre des ames Seville 40,900 32
Colao Caribbean 36,100 7
A Better Tomorrow 2018 Media Asia 19,900 31
The Final Year Magnolia 18,900 28
The Road Movie Oscilloscope 5,800 14
Mom and Dad Momentum 5,500 50
Beuys Kino 3,400 1
Small Town Crime Saban 2,100 9
A Ciambra IFC 1,700 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4