Friday Box Office Estimates Archive for November, 2014

Friday Box Office Estimates

Mockingjay continues to rule the roost and is now looking to catch up to the domestic gross of the first Hunger Games, but not the second (which it is still behind by 24%). It’s now past $400m worldwide. newcomer/spinoff The Penguins of Madagascar is looking soft, due for a Saturday uptick, but not close to Big Hero Six opening numbers, even if you adjust expectations because of the Wednesday launch. Interstellar had an uptick this weekend, even as it dropped more than 10% of its screens. And newcomer/sequel Horrible Bosses 2 is no Horrible Bosses… but how different they really are at the box office won’t be known until the end of next weekend, once we’ve digested Thanksgiving.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

A little move called Mockingjay: Part 1 shocked the movie world on Friday by a) having the biggest opening day of 2014, b) having the weakest opening day of the Hunger Games franchise, c) being unwatched by anyone in the movie world who doesn’t have a financial stake in it. In other box office news… well… is there any other box office news?

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Twenty years later, the original-star sequel to Dumb & Dumber‘s opening day is just $2.1 million behind the entire opening weekend of the original. Back in 1994, it took seven weeks for that film to generate 85% of its domestic box office.This film will have more like four weekends to do the same. The Friday/weekend flip between Interstellar and Big Hero 6 should occur again this weekend as BH6 hits the $100m tape on Sunday. Newcomer Beyond the Lights from Relativity will open a little behind Addicted, Lionsgate’s October “urban” entry. Foxcatcher will be the big per-screen opener of the weekend, looking at about $35k per on five.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The weekend will go to Big Hero Six in the end rather than Interstellar, but the placement at the top of the chart means almost nothing in reality. These two films are not cannibalizing one another. Geeks who love Interstellar will surely also see Big Hero 6 this weekend or next. And kids under 10 aren’t expected to rush to Interstellar. These are both strong openings, but by no standard sensational. Both films should have the kind of legs that reach to Thanksgiving weekend. Interstellar‘s open is about 23% off of Inception and Big Hero Six, compared to other animated films in the first weekend of November slot, should be slightly ahead of Wreck-It-Ralph, but still #4 all-time.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

In spite of premature guessing by the “trades,” Ouija wins Friday over excellent adult thriller Nightcrawler. There is still a good chance that Nightcrawler will win the weekend, holding better on Saturday and Sunday than Ouija. The last time Halloween fell on a Friday (2008), Zack & Miri Make A Porno started with a $2.2m Friday and made it to the $10m mark. So the tale for Nightcrawler will be told today, as people actually buy tickets.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom * 58.6 4475 NEW 58.6
Incredibles 2 24.4 4410 -54% 293.9
Ocean's 8 3.4 3656 -42% 92.1
Tag 2.4 3382 -56% 24.6
Deadpool 2 1.5 2420 -37% 300.4
Solo: A Star Wars Story 1.2 2338 -52% 199.3
Hereditary 1.1 2002 -51% 32.3
Superfly 0.95 2220 -49% 12.9
Avengers: Infinity War 0.7 1456 -52% 667.7
Won't You Be My Neighbo? 0.55 348 73% 2.8
* includes previews
Also Debuting
The Catch Was a Spy 25,900 48
My 2 Mommies 18,300 20
Tik Tik Tik 15,200 33
Lobster Cop 12,600 12
The Accidental Detective 2: In Action 11,100 10
Asees 10,100 15
The King 8,500 2
Boundaries 7,800 5
Damsel 6,100 3
Izzy Gets the F*ck Across Town 4,300 16
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4