Friday Box Office Estimates

Friday Box Office Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

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Read the full article » No Comments »

Friday Box Office Estimates

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Read the full article » No Comments »

Friday Box Office Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The Crazy Asians remain the Richest, as Melissa McCarthy’s star gets shadowed by felt in the r-rated puppet comedy The Happytime Murders. A-X-L is a d-o-g. In limited, Searching finds a good sized audience on 9 screens and Papillon may find a million dollar weekend on 544.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Weekend of Dichotomies: Crazy Rich Asians continue to get love from the media and audiences… but haven’t started mining the big bucks yet. Mile 22 open shows how strong Mark Wahlberg is and that his non-franchise stardom may be fading a bit. Four new arthouse films will be over $10k per screen (The Wife, We The Animals, Juliet, Naked, and Blaze), though all of them are limited to 2, 3 or 4 screens.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The Meg looks to be Warner Bros’ biggest opening of their rather quiet 4-film summer, cracking the Top 9 of domestic launches. The biggest question is whether the PG-13 monster shark comedy will draw family audiences today and Sunday or if they will be scared away by how big Meg’s teeth are. Screen Gems throws the somewhat controversial Slender Man into theaters and makes a small ripple. And the much praised, Cannes-awarded BlacKKlansman opens in wide-narrow, just 1512 screens, to what should be just over $7k per screen. It is a strong opening by Spike Lee standards, behind only Malcolm X in traditional Spike joints, and Original Kings of Comedy and Inside Man, which were not sold primarily as Spike films. It may also be the biggest Focus opening of under 2000 screens in their storied history. So, glass half…

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Three disappointing launches this weekend. Disney has it’s softest non-animal opening in almost 2 years, reminding us both why they need a different marketing team if they are going to add Fox product to their line-up. Very few teams re built to hit to more than one spot at the very highest level. Meanwhile, Fox fails utterly to open The Darkest Minds. And Lionsgate has a comedy that stumbles into the market, about 60% behind its similar male take, The Bodyguard’s Hitman.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Mission: Impossible – Fallout lands with its best opening of the franchise, though M:I2 opened on a Wednesday and if you count Thursday and Friday together, the number is slightly better. But M:IF only had Thursday from 7p on to accrue $s in our new Friday box office count methodology. Teen Titans Go To The Movies wilts on opening, though Saturday should improve the weekend to the mid-high teens. MM2 and TE2 both have soft holds, though those too should improve to the high 50s by the end of the weekend.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Mamma Mia!: Here We Go Again will out-open the original by a good amount while The Equalizer: Here We Kill Agian will come up a smidgen short of the launch of the first film. McQueen and Blindspotting will both top $10k per screen in exclusive launches.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Dracula bites The Rock as the third animated take on classic monsters by Genndy Tartakovsky continues to build on the previous films, opening $3.2 million better on opening day than Hotel Transylvania 2. Skyscraper opens behind what was considered a soft launch for Dwayne Johnson’s Rampage last April. And the rest of the returning Top 10 titles (save a solid expansion for Sorry To Bother You) had a tough Friday, with 50%+ drops across the board. In limited, a strong launch for Eighth Grade and a reasonable start for Don’t Worry He Won’t Get Far On Foot.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Sicario: Day of the Soldado and Uncle Drew arrive, each floating around the $20 million mark for the weekend. If they can triple that, both will be legit successes. Anything more will be gravy. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom falls as expected, Friday-to-Friday. Leave No Trace and Three Identical Strangers open per-screen strong.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom breaks the all-time record for most $125 million openings in the first 7 months of the year, a success which is reasonably followed by the question of whether there will be any more such openings this year. The record is 6 in one year – 2016 – which included an August and a December release. Meanwhile, the mid-week July 4 holiday is not a friend to JW2… because there is no 3-day or 4-day weekend and the holiday bump (last seen in 2012) is minor at best. It doesn’t hurt, but it doesn’t help much. Strong Friday-to-Friday hold for Incredibles 2 after its massive open last weekend. The King joins Won’t You Be My Neighbor in the 10K per-screeen doc club.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Incredibles 2*|71.4|4410|NEW|71.4 Ocean’s 8|5.9|4145|-62%|65.5 Tag|5.4|3382|NEW|5.4 Solo: A Star Wars Story|2.3|3182|-44%|186.1 Deadpool 2|2.3|3212|-40%|288.2 Hereditary|2.2|2998|-57%|22.3 Superfly|1.8|2220|NEW|4 Avengers: Infinity War|1.4|2164|-24%|660.3 Adrift|0.65|1929|-57%|25.4 Gotti|0.6|503|NEW|0.6 |||| * includes previews|||| |||| |||| Also Debuting|||| Race 3|0.59|313|| Sammohanam|0.1|121|| Naa Nuvve|15,100|118|| Eating Animals|12,200|2|| 7 Din Mohabbat In|8,900|31|| Outez-moi d’un doute|2,900|11|| Five Seasons: Gardens of Piet Oudolf|2,200|4|| The Yellow Birds|2,000|14|| The Year of Spectacular Men|1,800|11||…

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Friday Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Solo‘s second weekend is not shocking. But the rest of the media will tell you it is, because they will ride the negativity as long as they can. (Guess: two more weeks). A 77% first-Friday-to-second-Friday drop isn’t the best, but 70% is to be expected (remember, totals now include Thursday night) and 77% is not horrible. But the endless attack on Solo‘s box office absolutely creates damage. And that damage doesn’t accrue to the benefit of any other film… it just tears down Solo. Speaking to a friend who covers Europe, it seems Disney cut back on Solo screens going into the opening… so the blame doesn’t just land with a thoughtless media or a production that never overcame the firing of popular, cutting-edge directors. By far, the most shocking opening of the season is Action Point, which Paramount wanted to get off of its books like a rash. Johnny Knoxville hasn’t opened a stunt-oriented movie at Paramount to less than $29 million in the past (as recently as 2013) and this film won’t likely get to $2.9 million. If no one gets fired next week, you will know that this was intentional.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Avengers gets the third weekend with an easy win, as Disney plotted when moving the film back into April to launch the summer a week early. And next week, they will have a Star Wars at #1 and Avengers at #2. It’s good to be the Mouse. Double counterprogramming keep two films from launching to $20m+, but solid sturdy launches that could lead to decent totals if word of mouth is solid for both or either of the films. On the indie side, $10k+ weekend launches for Sony Classics’ The Seagull, Roadside’s Beast, and Magnolia’s Boom For Real.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4