Friday Box Office Estimates

Friday Box Office Estimates

The only movie with a shot at $20 million is Boo 2! A Madea Halloween while four other wide releases crash and burn. All kinds of excuses are flying, but the basics are: the marketing didn’t inspire. Another classic… titles that don’t mean anything. If you asked someone who doesn’t watch trailers what Geostorm, Only The Brave, and The Snowman were about based on those titles, no one would come close. People do know what to expect from Madea, though it doesn’t look like this Halloween comedy will come close to matching the first Boo.The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Wonderstruck, and Jane will all open with over $10k per screen in exclusives.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Happy Death Day marks another big Blumhouse opener, their third original of 2017 (no sequels from Blum this year) to open over $25 million with Universal. Also landing better than expected, Jackie Chan’s The Foreigner. Open Road cautiously released Marshall into a real-life distracted marketplace to soft results, around $3250 per screen on 821. Blade Runner 2049 didn’t sink like a stone, but was not particularly buoyant either. And Annapurna launched Professor Marston & The Wonder Women to indifference, likely under $600 per screen.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

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Friday Estimates

American Made is a fine measure of where Tom Cruise is right now. He can still open movies, even though people love to talk about no one being able to open movies. But he can only do so much on his own. The weekend probably ends up around $17 million, which, given how soft the sell on the film was, shouldn’t disappoint. It will be headlined as though it is. Flatliners is a head-scratcher. The cast is good… but nostalgia for that movie has a lot to do with the stars of the original who were all on the cusp of exploding. Magnolia finds a nice audience for Harry Dean Stanton in Lucky on one screen while Searchlight can’t get the ball over the net with any velocity with Battle of the Sexes now that warm-ups are over.

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Friday Estimates

Kingsman 2 lands, delivering another strong opener in, most likely, the best September ever. Content, content, content. Also arriving, The Lego Ninjago Movie, a rare miss for WB these last few months, a signal that the Lego Movie Universe has a more narrow scope than the studio had hoped. Tough drops for American Assassin and mother!. Byron Allen’s Entertainment Studios has its first wide-release flop with Friend Request. And Stronger has a soft start on an odd screen count of 574 screens.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

It remains the story. It’s starring Michael Keaton? No, that’s on second. Does it star Jennifer Lawrence? No, that’s on third. It is on third? No, that’s on first. Let me get this clear. Reese Witherspoon is up for an Emmy… Yes. And she’s home? She’s going to The Shrine. Not home? Right. It’s not home. It’s on first. You muther… Second base!

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Friday Box Office Estimates

How ’bout It?

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The lame remains the same: Hitman’s Bodyguard and Annabelle top the charts for a second Friday.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Feels just like the last week in August. But it’s even uglier than usual, as only three previously-opened August releases are still in the Top 10, and the highest-grossing won’t crack $10 million. No Suicide Squad or Straight Outta Compton playing strong through the month. Both newcomers feel like late August dumps. (Remember when Weinstein opened up late August with Inglourious Basterds?) Wind River continues a nice expansion. And Beach Rats finds a good-sized audience on three.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Jackson! Reynolds! Decent number! The Hitman’s Bodyguard hits a number that can’t be called a disappointment (given the date), but yet hardly expresses box office dynamite. Soderbergh’s Logan Lucky is likewise a mixed blessing. The film should do more than double the best Bleecker Street opening ever… but will still be under $8 million on 3,031 screens. And Patti Cake$, an audience-friendly, female-led Searchlight Sundance pick-up, starts softly on 14 screens, hoping to gather steam on word-of-mouth.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Annabelle 2/”Conjuring 4″ is right where it was expected to land, maybe slightly behind. But a happy day for creepy little-girls-in-peril films. Dunkirk keeps holding strong, slightly ahead of Interstellar, but without the generous Christmas holiday that Interstellar had ahead. (Expect them to be very close in the end.) The Nut Job 2 is about 40% off of the surprise hit of the original. Spidey hits $300m domestic. Detroit drops out of the Top 10 in its second weekend. And in exclusive runs, Good Time and Ingrid Goes West score.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The Dark Weekend.

Question 1. Why did Tom Rothman do The Dark Tower cheaply? Because it can do $50m domestic and $100m international and not hurt Sony.

Question 2. Why did Kidnap get a theatrical? Because it can do $25 million in theaters and make itself more valuable in post-theatrical and in international theatrical.

Question 3. What happened to Detroit? Publicized tracking numbers set the bar too high and the film didn’t have a long enough runway to overcome the bombs that were thrown that, with a little more time, might have been defused.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

S–t, yeah! The Emoji Movie, aka the worst-reviewed movie of the summer, will not only win the weekend, but it will likely win the weekend by a good amount. But the hold for Dunkirk isn’t poop at all. Newcomer Atomic Blonde is pushing the, “yes, you will see Charlize naked and kicking ass a lot” emoji, but is going to straddle the $20 million mark for the weekend anyway. And Girls Trip is also holding strong with a double-grapefruit emoji. Detroit arrives on 20 screens, looking at a per-screen near $20k, which suggests that the word-of-mouth release might be the right strategy.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Dunkirk storms the beaches, overperforming with a sure IMAX $ push. Girls Trip, the fifth comedy released this summer, has a better opening day than the first two days of any other summer comedy. And Valerian opens softly, with almost the exact opening as The Fifth Element (1997). And opening over $10k per screen on four, Landline.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

A bit better than the first of this series… a little worse than the second… this Friday ape-ening is a box-office non-story. As we humble Americans are getting sick of writing every week, the story is international, where Rise of the Planet of the Apes did $200 million more than Dawn ($502m international). $175m – $225 million is what domestic will look like. Spider-Home has a normal drop off a $100m+ open, so far. The Big Sick goes wide and with a $3.000-ish per-screen for the weekend, is doing solid business to scale. Baby & Woman hold fast. Wish Upon continues the meh-diocre opening streak for Broad Green.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Spider-Man returns… but how much better are the numbers? At the end of its first weekend, The Amazing Spider-Man had brought in $137 million. With a $51m Friday, Spider-Man: Homecoming is on pace to have about the same amount as ASM. The Big Question remains… can the latest reboot do more than $500 million worldwide to top the previous incarnation? Also opening wide… nothing. A24’s A Ghost Story will do about $25k per screen on four for the weekend.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Hard to say what this Despicable weekend will turn into when compared to other Despicable weekends. There still seems a strong chance of a $100 million 3-day, given normal patterns… but it could be short… or it could challenge Minions‘ $115m launch. And how will a Tuesday July 4 play? Baby Driver isn’t blowing the roof off, but it is getting the word of mouth to fuel it forward. Edgar Wright’s biggest domestic open by a long shot. And WB threw The House out like trash and it’s performing as such.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

It’s not pretty, but the projections on Transformers 5 are pretty much on target at this point… slightly low. Even people in Iowa know that the movie is waiting for international to take it from relative zero to an uncomfortable hero. Drops for Cars 2, Wonder Woman, and Pirates 5 are looking pretty good for the weekend. The Beguiled will do boffo per-screen on four… high 50k, low 60k. But the king of indie this weekend is The Big Sick, which could end up doing $70k per screen on five.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Cars 3 opens to almost exactly the same Friday number as Cars, while the whole enterprise looks to international and merchandising to make the effort worth Pixar and Disney’s while. Meanwhile, All Eyez on Me reminds us that a 24 on Rotten Tomatoes doesn’t matter if there are people predisposed to see the movie. Byron Allen’s new distribution venture opens 47 Meters Down to about two-thirds of what The Shallows opened to… which will likely be seen as a win in some quarters. And Rough Night lived up to its title at the box office.

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Friday Estimates

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween 7.4 2388 New 7.4
Geostorm 4.3 3246 New 4.3
Happy Death Day 3 3298 -72% 34.3
Only the Brave 2.1 2577 New 2.1
Blade Runner 2049 2 3203 -53% 68.9
The Foreigner 1.6 2515 -66% 19
Same Kind of Different as Me 1.3 1362 New 1.3
The Snowman 1.3 2559 New 1.3
It 1 2560 -49% 317.7
American Made 0.95 2559 -42% 43.3
Also Debuting
Golmaal Again 0.25 265
Mersal 0.22 136
Secret Superstar 0.19 207
Raja the Great 44,000 108
The Killing of a Sacred Deer 42,800 4
A Silent Voice 32,700 13
Wonderstruck 24,600 4
Jane 19,000 4
Les Affames 13,900 22
Tragedy Girls 6,000 2
Leatherface 5,700 22
RV: Resurrected Victims 2,600 11
Tokyo Ghoul 2,400 6
Dealt 1,700 1
The Paris Opera 1,700 4
The Sacrifice (reissue) 1,600 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4