Friday Box Office Estimates

Friday Box Office Estimates

A big, but not unexpected Friday-to-Friday drop for The Fate of The Furious, as the domestic engine of this franchise fades while the rest of the world keeps revving. Newcomers barely register, as barely-marketed Unforgettable, Disney doc Born in China and political passion project The Promise will each open to under $5 million for the weekend. Only one exclusive release will even hit $10k per-screen.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The Fate of the Furious opened well in North America by every standard but the last F&F movie, Furious 7. But the rest of the world, particularly China, is making up for that in a big way, where Fate is having a $200 million weekend, which, even with Universal only getting a quarter of that, amounts to a huge worldwide opening. The rest of the Top 10 is holding well in spite of the big new opener. A $100 million opening just doesn’t stretch the marketplace to anything close to its max anymore. The Lost City of Z, Maudie and Chasing Trane all opened well in limited.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

It will be a close race for the Meaningless Box Office Title, as Boss Baby and Beauty & The Beast start the weekend neck & neck. Saturday will tell the tale, but Sunday estimates of the weekend for the two films will be as political as they are mathematical. Newcomers Going in Style and poorly-timed Smurfs: The Lost Village will also battle for position, though only for a soft third. Ghost in the Shell falls into the abyss (domestically). Three new limited releases with high profiles land, with the strongest looking like the Anne Hathaway “monster movie,” Colossal.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Trump looks like he may win again, as his first-act incarnation, The Boss Baby, should trend as a family movie to take the weekend in a close contest with Beauty Weekend 3. Pulling into third place among newcomers, body suit Scarlett Johansson, built to kill the beast, but unable to do so. And The Zookeeper’s Wife looks to be doing exceptional business in a very unusual screen-count launch.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The second weekend of a tale as old as time not only beating out two space-y films, but beating the two combined. The Beauty is looking at the #4 all-time slot for best second weekend to boot. Power Rangers, which spent a ton on advertising, is not a bust. But box office prognosticators are flying blind on where this one is going. Will it play on Saturday and across the globe? Life is a brutal opening, given its ambition. And CHiPs is another waste of Dax Shepard and Michael Pena and of WB’s time.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Tale as old as 1991… loved to say the least… throngs come out for Belle, critics ring death knell, Beauty and the Beast

It’s the fourth biggest opening day outside of the summer/holiday windows. $155 million seems like the floor for the weekend. This kind of huge success seemed inevitable when incisive critics started reviewing Disney’s business model instead of the movie. Canaries in the coal mine.

In exclusives, Boyle & Malick will each go over $10k per screen in throwaway releases.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Fox had its second very successful hard-R Marvel opening in 13 months, defining a unique place for itself in the Marvel eco-system unlikely to be explored by Disney. Logan opened to X-Men: Days of Future Past numbers, which did $90m for the opening weekend, $234 domestic and $748m worldwide. So, well behind Deadpool domestically, but catching up in international.

Also opening to modest but not-too-exciting numbers, Sony’s The Shack and Open Road’s Before I Fall.

And Moonlight gets an Oscar bump that should amount to a couple million this weekend, while Hidden Figures and La La Land continue normal drops, still topping the Best Picture winner.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Get Out is an ironic hit on #OscarWeekendSoRacial. Will the trajectory of the film across the weekend be horror movie or comedy date film? Fifty Shades Darker continues to drop like a lead balloon, but will pass $100m domestic and $300m worldwide today as its producer prepares to present the Oscar telecast. Lion continues to expand, and Hidden Figures stays slightly ahead of La La Land at the domestic box office (but way behind internationally). Animated Feature nominee My Life As A Zucchini opens as the only $10k+ limited/exclusive.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Lego Batman rolls along, though it is not up to par with The Lego Movie and doesn’t bode well for the future Lego-branded titles that don’t have the most powerful franchise brands in the movie business. Fifty Shades Darker is more than 40% off the first of the series, but it will still cross $100m+ domestic. Newcomer The Great Wall is outperforming low expectations, but hardly a hit. Fist Fight is looking at the worst Ice Cube opening in over a decade. And Fox doesn’t find much interest in A Cure for Wellness, sold as horror/thriller in-betweener.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

-30%. -16%. +100%.

Those opening day drops for each of the “sequels” that opened on Friday. As you can see, John Wick 2 doubled its launch (and also its budget). Of course, even if it doubles its overall worldwide gross, JW2 is “only” a $175m worldwide movie. Lego and 50 Shades were $470m and $570m worldwide, respectively. Both “sequels” will be profitable. But how much will those original grosses drop when all is said and done?

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Opening on Super Bowl weekend can be treacherous. Sunday is already the softest day of the box office weekend, but on Super Sunday, it’s positively limp. Last year, Universal counter-programmed the event with a Coen Bros movie, which did okay for a Coen Bros movie. This year, Paramount went out with the genre that tends to fall like a stone on Sunday anyway, horror, and released the reboot Rings, which will win the weekend with a bigger launch than Hail, Caesar!, but not close to the #1 movie last SB weekend, Panda 3. The other newcomer, The Space Between Us, has a lot of space between it and the top.

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Friday Estimates

Split becomes a monster for Universal, likely to hold off the family film, A Dog’s Purpose, also from a happy Universal, scoring early in 2017 with 2 non-franchise films, reminding the industry that IP is not the only way. Resident Evil 6 doesn’t care much about the soft US opening. Their grosses have been 80% international the last 2 films, both over $195 million. La La Land and Hidden Figures both pass $100m domestic this weekend, buoyed by Oscar noms. Even with a nice expansion bump, Team La may be a little disappointed that the bump isn’t bigger. They’ll live. And the weekend bump may well be bigger than the Friday. Gold fools.

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Friday Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

A big weekend for expansions and newcomers with one—Hidden Figures, Patriots Day, La La (which also adds IMAX screens), or the other, Bye Bye Man, taking up the top four slots plus another two openers (Sleepless, Monster Trucks) and an expansion (Live by Night) in the top 10. Sitting pat are the two big Christmas hits, Rogue One and Sing, and last week’s disappointing launch for Underworld 5. In limited/exclusive, if your film is in English, it’s not opening to 10k per or better this week.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Christmas limited Hidden Figures goes right to the top of New Year’s hangover weekend with a solid $20m+ opening weekend. The return of Underworld arrives in the U.S. with a thud, but the hope for big returns on this are around the world, where the franchise broke through with its most recent episode (2012), doubling its previous best effort and giving hope that this will be a $100m+ grosser internationally. La La Land doubles its screen count weeks before Oscar nominations (and hours before winning Best Musical/Comedy at The Globes, which don’t drive business) and stays even… which might be disappointing for Lionsgate. But it will pass $50 million this weekend and will keep chugging towards $100m domestic, so cheer up!

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Seven studio Christmas weekend releases, four going wide, with three in exclusive runs. There is no comparative title for Sing, but the closest seems to be Alvin & The Chipmunks, which ended up with over $200m domestic. Passengers is looking to be Jennifer Lawrence’s worst wide opening, though not disastrously so, as international is anticipated as a big part of the box office total. Why Him? is soft, though not far off Sisters last December. And Assassin’s Creed seems to be Fox betting that the title will be the next Warcraft, which did only 10% of its business domestically. Silence will be the per-screen winner for the weekend by far, with Patriots Day poised to eventually do better wide than in exclusive release.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

What more is there to say than, “Star Wars: Rogue One?” It is impossible to say exactly what the $70m Friday-plus opening will lead to this weekend, but using The Force Awakens as a comp, it should do about $150m over the 3-day-plus opening. Nothing to sneeze at, but not Top 10 all-time either. Also opening, Collateral Beauty, for which there is more than enough room in the marketplace as a counterprogrammer, meaning that it is not collateral damage, just a flop in its own right Also, expansions of La La Land and Manchester by the Sea go well, if not shockingly so.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

The top grosser of the weekend will be Office Christmas Party. But the lead story will be La La Land, which, on five screens, will be behind only 1995’s Pocahontas and 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel in per-screen opening average on more than two screens.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

It’s one of Hollywood’s least favorite weekends, the first weekend of December. The only new wide release is from a little-known independent. The bright light is Fox Searchlight’s Jackie, which is on five screens, averaging $18k on Friday alone, suggesting a weekend per-screen of over $50,000 per.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

A mixed bag on Thanksgiving weekend at the box office. It’s early to get a full read on Moana as its launch outpaces Frozen, but it is a rarity for a big animated movie to open on Thanksgiving weekend. Tea leaves are blurry. Likewise, the question of Doctor Strange remains open, as its 24 days to get to $200 million domestic is right in the middle of the Marvel pack. And Fantastic Beasts is pacing right along with the 2nd and 3rd Potter films so far. Allied opens soft, pacing with Australia, though it would be worth noting that Australia did over $200m worldwide and Allied could well do the same. Arrival is the strong hold of the week. Bad Santa 2 peed on Santa’s leg. Lion and Miss Sloane deliver in exclusive runs.

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Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
The Fate of the Furious 11.2 4329 -68% 136.1
The Boss Baby 3.2 3697 -52% 127.4
Beauty and the Beast 2.6 3315 -48% 463.7
Unforgettable 1.7 2417 New 1.7
Born in China 1.6 1508 New 1.6
The Promise 1.4 2251 New 1.4
Going in Style 1.4 3038 -34% 28.2
Gifted 1.4 1986 29% 7.6
Smurfs: The Lost Village 1.1 2737 -58% 29.7
The Lost City of Z 0.65 614 1604% 0.8
Also Debuting
Phoenix Forgotten 0.62 1592
Free Fire 0.38 1070
Grow House 0.15 624
Can't Help Falling in Love 0.11 70
Raid dingue 20,100 36
Noor 17,200 71
Citizen Jane: Battle for the City 10,700 2
Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki 4,000 6
Slack Bay 2,400 2
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4