MCN Originals

Friday Box Office Estimates

Disney’s A Wrinkle In Time launches just ahead of Disney’s Black Panther, which will be the story over the weekend. Wrinklehas the upside of being a family movie, which should offer a Saturday bump, but Panther has had Saturday family bumps of 65% and 85%, which Wrinkle may not match. And then Sunday…

Also opening, Aviron’s second release, a picked-up sequel to a 2008 Rogue-Focus release, The Strangers… which will likely open to about half the original. And at the $3 million opening level, STX’s Gringo and Entertainment Studios’ The Hurricane Heist.

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The DVD Wrapup: Thor, Gintama, Novitiate, White Sun, Faces Places, Voyage, Paris Opera, Strangers, Moveable Feast and more

Comic books are said to have existed in America since the publication of the hardcover book, “The Adventures of Mr. Obadiah Oldbuck,” in 1842. Newspaper comic strips and panels became a phenomenon in New York at the end of the 1890s, with “The Katzenjammer Kids” and “The Yellow Kid.” It wasn’t until the 1930s that comics in the print and visual media came of age, with Jerry Siegel and Joe Shuster’s “Superman,” which opened the door for a legion of superheroes to come. It’s been something of roller-coaster ride for comic books, strips and movies, ever since. Anyone born since the advent of the digital age might think that studios have always been buoyed by the fortunes of their comic-book franchises. Until recently, though, they’ve been anything but a sure thing. Expensive to make and subject to the whims of fickle fan bases, comic-book movies now flourish commercially because of the extraordinary emergence of modern theaters in foreign markets and audiences hungry for CGI thrills. Unlike comics, storylines are incidental to a movie’s performance.

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The Weekend Report

Black Panther held sway at the multiplex with a third weekend estimated tally of $66.3 million. The session’s two new national releases followed with Red Sparrow opening to $16.8 million and a resurrected MGM debuting Death Wish with $12.8 million.

Hindi Pari was off to a good start of $171,000. And best of the exclusive entries was the Israeli foreign language Oscar submission Foxtrot that grossed $35,300 from four locations.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Get Out opened to $33 million Oscar weekend last year, and goes to the wire with a Best Picture nomination this Weekend. Red Sparrow, not so much. Jennifer Lawrence held the mantle of Biggest Star In The World for a moment, but an under-$20 million open for this film argues that she needs to make better non-franchise choices. Also not opening, Death Wish, which didn’t make an argument about why it was more than a day at the White House. Black Panther stays on the prowl, getting to $450 million domestic in 15 days and maintaining expectations of a $600 million-plus domestic total, which has only happened only five times in box office history.

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Gurus o’ Gold: Final Guesses

The Gurus are nearly exhausted, predicting 11 unanimous selections, including all four Acting categories, Directing, Original Screenplay and Animated Feature. The most competitive categories? Best Picture and Best Documentary.

The Gurus also pick three potential upsets each, with Get Out as Best Picture leading the way, followed by both screenplay categories and Supporting Actress.

And with that, The Gurus head back to the mountain to hibernate until September. May The Show Be With You.

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The DVD Wrapup: Darkest Hour, Coco, Tom Jones, Basket Case, Hangman, Godard+Gorin, Hallelujah Trail, Tyrus … More

Oldman shines throughout, delivering inspirational oratory, displaying an unexpected sense of humor and the tenacity required to rally the nation in its, yes, darkest hour. The picture is further enhanced by key performances in supporting roles by Kristin Scott Thomas, Lily James, Ronald Pickup and Stephen Dillane. Of six nominations, the other likely winner is in the Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling category.

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20 Weeks To Oscar: A Week To Go

Every one of the five films that is considered to have a real chance of winning Best Picture has a position of strength and a soft underbelly.

Do you want to go through them all again?

I don’t either.

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The Weekend Report

Black Panther’s 46% decline can be viewed as a moderate downturn, but its estimated $108.2 million weekend box office is formidable. The modest opposition saw three new national release, with the best of the bunch, the antic comedy Game Night, slotted second with $16.7 million while head-trip adventure Annihilation opened to $10.8 million. The resurrected Orion Pictures label provided the young adult fantasy romance Every Day with a low spark of $2.9 million.

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Weak openings for Game Night and Annihilation are less interesting than the continuing story of Black Panther, which will pass $700 million worldwide this weekend. Only nine movies have ever cracked $1.3 billion and Black Panther is sure to be the tenth. It will likely fall behind The Avengers and be the all-time #2 Marvel movie. (But it probably won’t pass Furious 7 as the biggest non-summer/non-holiday grosser.) These landmark-porn details distract from its profound success: the only horse race between films is created by the media.

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Gurus o’ Gold: Top 3

As The Gurus count down to Oscar night, they pick their Top 3 in every category (except picture, where it’s still Top 5). The group is unanimous in a surprising nine categories, including all four acting awards, while Editing and Doc Feature are toss-ups. The Gurus see the maximum number of Oscars going to one film being… three.

Next week… Top 2.

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The DVD Wrapup: Florida Project, Daddy’s Home 2, The Hero, Thirsty and more

By setting his closely observed humanist drama, The Florida Project, within the shadow of Disney World, Sean Baker (Tangerine) describes how a community of homeless, underemployed and frequently lawless single parents has taken root on one of the commercial strips leading into Uncle Walt’s greatest fantasy.

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The Weekend Report

Black Panther devoured seventy percent or more of the marketplace, with a record-setting box office estimated at $192.2 million (all numbers reflect three-day portion of holiday weekend). Two films premiered nationally as counterprogrammers: animated Early Man wound up slotting seventh with $3.1 million, while faith-targeted biblical drama Samson earned $1.9 million.

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Friday Box-Office Estimates

Roar.

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Gurus o Gold: Counting Down To Oscar Night

The Gurus are working through this final stage of the Oscar season. This week, The Top 4s. Next week, The Top 3s. Then, The Top 2s. And on show week, Only The Winners. (They’re all winners… it is an honor just to be nominated.)

And as you asked… The Gurus currently thinking no movie wins more than four Oscars. And the second biggest number of Oscars to… Dunkirk.

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The DVD Wrapup: Ballad of Lefty Brown, Wonder, Blades, Seijun Suzuki, Fellini, Hellraiser, Paradise and more

Set in the desolate plains of Montana, before the arrival of the railroad, The Ballad of Lefty Brown is an ode to the traditional revenge Western. When famed frontier lawman and Montana’s first elected senator Eddie Johnson (Peter Fonda) is brutally murdered – assassinated, to be precise — his longtime sidekick and friend, Lefty Brown (Bill Pullman), vows to avenge his death. The trouble is, Lefty is more than a tad over the hill and he’s outgunned by some ornery desperadoes.

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The Weekend Report

Fifty Shades Freed topped weekend moviegoing with an estimated $38.8 million, followed by two other national newcomers, the free adaptation of Peter Rabbit, with $24.8 million, while clipped-from-the-headlines The 15:17 to Paris went hand-to-hand for $12.4 million.

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Friday Estimates

Wedding bonds, rabbit leaps, terror topped.

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The DVD Wrapup: Only the Brave, LBJ, Suburbicon, Aida’s Secrets, Clouzot’s Inferno, Jackie Gleason and more

Joseph Kosinski’s stunningly effective Only the Brave is the rare disaster movie guaranteed to leave its audiences not just in tears, but in mourning for the victims, their families and community at large, as well.

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20 Weeks To Oscar: The Big Quiet

Can you hear it?

Listen carefully.

Silence.

We are still a month from The Oscars.

We are still weeks from voting.

And in what has felt like a pretty open season is not accelerating into a passionate discussion of the top movies of 2017. The discussion is about the Solo trailer and Black Panther.

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The Weekend Report

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle returned to the top of the weekend viewing charts with an estimated $11 million. As the Patriots and Eagles await kick off of Super Bowl LII in frigid Minneapolis, moviegoing takes a back seat. And with that chill in mind the sole national newcomer – haunted house Winchester – opened in third with $9.1 million.

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MCN Originals

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Super Troopers 2 7.9 2038 NEW 7.9
A Quiet Place 6.4 3808 39% 117
I Feel Pretty 6.1 3440 NEW 6.1
Rampage 5 4115 46% 50.6
Truth or Dare 2.5 3068 70% 25
Blockers 2.1 3134 36% 43.4
Ready Player One 1.9 3208 36% 121
Bharat Ane Nenu 1.5 323 NEW 1.5
Traffik 1.4 1046 NEW 1.4
Black Panther 1.2 1930 16% 678
Also Debuting
Little Pink House 10,300 8
Beyond the Clounds 8,800 41
Khido Khundi 8,500 33
Dude's Manual 7,400 14
Ghost Stories 5,300 1
Godard Mon Amour 4,100 4
L'Apparition 3,900 6
The Devil and Father Amorth 3,300 3
Eye on Juliet 2,300 9
Le Corbeau (reissue) 2,200 1
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4